Imagn Images
The 2025 Final Four features a best versus best matchup when the No. 1 Duke Blue Devils (35-3) face the No. 1 Houston Cougars (34-4). Duke has the top-rated offense in the land, while Houston counters with the nation’s best defense. This NCAA Tournament 2025 contest will be a rematch of a Sweet 16 matchup from last year, in which Duke prevailed. The Blue Devils are seeking their first championship game appearance since winning it all in 2015, while the Cougars are looking for their first title game since finishing as runner-up in 1984.
Tipoff is at 8:49 p.m. ET on CBS from the Alamodome in San Antonio. The Blue Devils are 5.5-point favorites in the latest Houston vs. Duke odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 136.5. Before making any Duke vs. Houston picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions from SportsLine expert Micah Roberts.
Over the past three college basketball seasons, Roberts is 267-227, returning $1,578 to $100 players. Roberts enters the Final Four of the 2025 NCAA Tournament on a 16-5-1 roll (+1017) over his last 22 college basketball picks involving Houston. Anyone following could have been way up.
Now, he has set his sights on Houston vs. Duke and just locked in his March Madness predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are the college basketball odds and lines for Duke vs. Houston:
- Houston vs. Duke spread: Duke -5.5
- Houston vs. Duke over/under: 136.5 points
- Houston vs. Duke money line: Duke -267, Houston +216
- DUKE: The Blue Devils are 25-13 against the spread in 2024-25
- HOU: The Cougars are 20-18 versus the spread this season
- Houston vs. Duke picks: See who to back at SportsLine
Why Duke can cover
The Blue Devils lead all 2025 March Madness teams with 91.8 points per game, having scored at least 85 points in all four games. This potency is thanks to elite shooting as the Blue Devils are knocking down 56.2% from the field and 47.3% from beyond the arc during their tourney run. Duke’s success, however, extends way further back than the NCAA Tournament 2025 as it enters on a 15-game win streak. The team also has a bona-fide star in Cooper Flagg, whose 18.9 ppg make him the highest-scoring freshman on a Final Four team since Carmelo Anthony of Syracuse in 2002-03.
The projected top overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft leads Duke in points, rebounds, assists and steals. However, he’s not the only standout freshman for Jon Scheyer’s squad, as Kon Knueppel is coming off back-to-back tourney games with 20-plus points. Plus, there’s 7-foot-2 center, Khaman Maluach, who is averaging 11.5 points on a staggering 87% shooting in March Madness. He will be a matchup nightmare for a Cougars squad which has no rotation players taller than 6-foot-8. See which team to pick here.
Why Houston can cover
Houston counters Duke’s 15-game win streak and No. 1 offense by having a 17-game win streak and the top-rated defense in college basketball. The Coogs are allowing 56.5 points per game in the NCAA Tournament 2025 — the fewest by any team — and they have kept all four opponents to at least 10 points below their season scoring averages. That includes a Round of 32 victory over a Gonzaga team which ranks second, nationally, in offensive rating, trailing only Duke, so Houston has shown it can put the clamps on elite offenses.
That defense overshadows the fact that Houston also has a top-10 offense, per KenPom’s efficiency rankings. Kelvin Sampson’s team does a pair of things exceptionally well which are important in any level of basketball. The Cougars rank fifth in Division I with 39.7% from beyond the arc, and they also commit the fifth-fewest turnovers per game. Houston also has the experience advantage over the freshmen-heavy Blue Devils as each of the Cougars’ top six scorers have spent at least three years in college basketball. See which team to pick here.
How to make Duke vs. Houston picks
Roberts has evaluated the Houston vs. Duke matchup from every angle and is leaning Under on the point total. He’s also found a critical X-factor that has him backing one side of the spread. You can only find out what it is, and see which side of the spread to back, at SportsLine.
So who wins Duke vs. Houston, and what critical X-factor do you need to know about? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Houston vs. Duke spread to jump on, all from the expert on a 16-5-1 roll on his college basketball picks involving Houston, and find out.
