No matter how dreary, no matter how dark, no matter how many months, we go into Opening Day with smiles on our faces. Sometimes, those smiles turn into bold — and accurate — predictions. Sometimes, they turn into undeserved optimism (we all had the Mariners making the playoffs last year). We won’t know until October, and let’s face it, none of us will read this in October when the Mariners are literally parading in Seattle.
But until then, our 2025 predictions:
American League:
AL West: Mariners (8)
Astros (7), Rangers (3)
Grant: I’m sorry, I can’t pick anybody other than the Astros until I see that the dynasty has actually ended. I really wish I could.
Zach M: I say this every year: I will believe the Astros are dead when I see the body.
Kate: I am scared of that Rangers lineup, and think Evan Carter takes his demotion to Triple-A angrily and comes back to punish everyone in the second half.
Anders: F*ck it, we ball.
John: The rest of the league and the division is worse, and the Mariners are better than they were at the start of 2024. I see it.
AL Central: Tigers (7)
Guardians (5), Twins (4), Royals (2)
Kate: As you can tell, I am high on the Royals this year. They’ve fixed their pitching Enough, they have a legit star in Cole Ragans, and Bobby Witt Jr. is capable of floating that entire lineup. Throw in the Jonathan India trade, and they’re a scary squad.
John: Do not make me engage with this division. I don’t care that they colluded with one another to sneak into the playoffs a year ago thanks to 14 games apiece against the White Sox, which is as big a nullification of payroll inequities as any sort of salary cap. I picked the Twins and nearly yakked while explaining how it only requires five injury-prone position players to be mostly healthy.
AL East: Red Sox (11)
Yankees (4), Orioles (3)
John: The Yankees are going to have their first losing season since 1992.
Wild Cards: Orioles (9), Astros (9), Mariners (9), Yankees (9)
Rangers (8), Red Sox (4), Guardians (2), Royals (2), Rays (1)
Grant: Poor White Sox, poor A’s, poor Blue Jays, poor Angels
John: The American League this year is going to be incredible. 12 teams that are all essentially as good as one another, plus the A’s, Angels, and then a chasm approximately as wide as the circumnavigation of the world, or the distance of sitting in a car driving along Mercer in South Lake Union, and then the White Sox.
National League:
NL West: Dodgers (18)
Zach M: The Dodgers have assembled a very good baseball team.
Eric: Why would you say something so controversial, yet so brave?
John: It’s a great but terrible time to be a Diamondback.
NL Central: Cubs (11)
Brewers (7)
Nick: No team in either central division has done much to separate themselves from their opposition except the Cubs, who mortgaged the future on one year of Kyle Tucker to take them back to the playoffs. There are still holes in their roster, but what they have built is likely enough to win a weak NL Central.
John: I like the Cubbies this year and agree with Nicky T that this is the year their more aggressive strategy at last overtakes the Brew Crew once again.
NL East: Phillies (9)
Braves (5), Mets (4)
John: I love the Mets and delight in the Phillies, but y’all know how good Atlanta is, right? Like… there will probably be two NL teams to win 100 games this year and one of them has a shot at four starting position players on the NL All-Stars this year.
Wild Cards: Mets (14), Diamondbacks (13), Braves (8)
Phillies (6), Padres (6), Cubs (2), Giants (1)
Zach M: Corbin Carroll bounceback going to hit like crazy.
John: Snakes EXTREMELY alive. Soto and Lindor similarly vital. I fear this year is the end of the line for this iteration of the Icarus Era Padres.
Sleeper Teams:
AL: Athletics (9)
Tigers (2), Royals (2), Rangers (2)
Nick: So many of us said the A’s I’m a little worried that they don’t qualify as a sleeper team anymore, but alas.
John: The Rangers are the AL West favorite by some projections so I’m not sure they’re strictly a sleeper, but I do think the Gritty Tigs have an improved year, a bit of a 2022 Mariners behind the 2021 M’s of “similar record, better process” that still is just shy of the playoffs in their iteration.
Eric: The A’s being good right after leaving Oakland would be extremely on brand for 2025.
NL: Pirates (5), Reds (5)
Giants (2), Diamondbacks (1), Cardinals (1), Cubs (1), Marlins (1)
Zach M: It’s so sad to me that once I get the freedom to finally root for Justin Verlander is right when he’s falling apart. But Matt Chapman and Willie Adames is perhaps the most fearsome left side in baseball, Logan Webb and Patrick Bailey are eternally underrated stars, and Camilo Doval is like one tweak away from being elite again.
John: I think Grant assumed I was joking when I put the Dodgers as the sleeper team and thus did not include it, but I think it’s a sleeping reverse, they are going to be the NL West winners, but this team has flaws and holes, and they will give the NL West a shot to get tight.
Playoffs:
AL Champs: Red Sox (7)
Mariners (5), Yankees (2), Orioles (1), Rangers (1), Royals (1), Tigers (1)
NL Champs: Dodgers (16), Mets (2)
World Series Champs: Dodgers (12)
Mariners (2), Red Sox (2), Mets (1), Royals (1)
World Series MVP: Shohei Ohtani (6)
Freddie Freeman (3), Mookie Betts (2), Alex Bregman (1), Tommy Edman (1), Logan Gilbert (1), Teoscar Hernandez (1), Donovan Solano (1), Juan Soto (1), Bobby Witt Jr. (1)
Zach M: If we must suffer through this Dodgers dynasty, the least we can get is some comeuppance for the Red Sox blunders, and Mookie taking the WS MVP against Boston.
John: Pretty delectable stuff, and also reflective of the absolutely wide open nature of the American League this year. I don’t see Boston as impermeable, simply first among equals, and I’m not even sure they’re particularly well constructed for a playoff run. But boy I think they can hit.
Awards:
AL MVP: Bobby Witt Jr. (7)
Aaron Judge (5), Julio Rodríguez (4), Yordan Alvarez (1), Rafael Devers (1)
Kate: Continuing on my run of picking the Royals, I put Witt Jr. in here; if the Orioles make it, it’ll be Rutschman, and if the Mariners make it, it’ll be Julio.
John: They’re not giving Bobby Witt Jr. the MVP for dragging the Royals to fourth place, I’m sorry y’all. If Gunnar Henderson weren’t hurt to start the year I think he’d be the frontrunner, because again, the Yankees are going to be Bad.
NL MVP: Shohei Ohtani (12)
Juan Soto (4), Francisco Lindor (1), Fernando Tatis Jr. (1)
John: Lets go Mets baby love da (second place) Mets.
Eric: If Ohtani starts pitching midseason or right before the playoffs, it is so over.
AL Cy Young: Logan Gilbert (10)
Garrett Crochet (5), George Kirby (1), Bryce Miller (1)
Grant: If ever you needed proof that this is a Mariners blog, this is Exhibit 1.
Kate: I don’t care, I’ll be a homer all day about this. Logan Gilbert is good and getting better, and the more he figures out how to use his weird ET fingers to penalize opposing batters, the better he gets.
John: If you look at other predictions by sites and writers, Logan Gilbert is right up there at the top or second spot!
Grant: He sure isn’t getting 2⁄3 of the votes!
NL Cy Young: Paul Skenes (10)
Zack Wheeler (3), Corbin Burnes (1), Dylan Cease (1), Aaron Nola (1), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (1)
Anders: The Cy Young often goes to a guy who is already established, known, and good, but maybe not elite — just a guy who hit a 90th percentile outcome. Yamamoto fits that mold for me (and Gilbert does too, for what it’s worth).
Kate: What Ders said, but insert Zack Wheeler.
Nick: Dread it. Run from it. Skenes arrives all the same.
AL Rookie of the Year: Jacob Wilson (7)
Kristian Campbell (4), Roman Anthony (2), Jackson Jobe (2), Cam Smith (2)
Nick: Mentally filed Jacob Wilson’s name last week in Mesa when I watched him hit homeruns in consecutive at-bats. Power hasn’t really been a big part of his game in college or the minors, but he hit as many home runs (4) in spring this year as he did all in more than double the at-bats in Triple-A last season.
NL Rookie of the Year: Roki Sasaki (9)
Dylan Crews (7), Bubba Chandler (1), Matt Shaw (1)
John: Sasaki has the Dodgers aura, of course, but there’s also just a logistical benefit here: he’s thrown top level professional innings for four years already, at a more challenging level than any of his competition, and while he probably will be in the 150-170 inning range if healthy, his workload won’t be too limited.
Around the Mariners:
Mariners Wins: 89
Julio fWAR: 6.6
Grant: I love Julio, and I think he’s a transcendent talent. He could well have a Bobby Witt Jr. season from last year. But predicting him for 6.6 wins feels like a fool’s errand, or at least betting on outstanding defense.
John: It’s the year.
M’s pitching fWAR leader: Logan Gilbert (16)
George Kirby (1), Luis Castillo (1)
M’s reliever with most WPA: Andrés Muñoz (11)
Matt Brash (5), Gregory Santos (1), Trent Thornton (5)
More fWAR: Bryce Miller (14), Bryan Woo (4)
Will a Mariner win a Silver Slugger or Gold Glove? (and if so, who?):
- Julio Rodríguez GG: 7
- Cal Raleigh GG: 16
- Luke Raley GG: 1
- J.P. Crawford GG: 1
- Victor Robles GG: 1
- Julio Rodríguez SS: 9
- Cal Raleigh SS: 6
# of PA for Rowdy Tellez: 205
Corner Outfielder with a higher wRC+: Randy or Victor?
- Randy Arozarena: 14
- Victor Robles: 5
Big Dumper Bombs: 35
John: Financial security for Cal means immense insecurity for opposing pitchers.
Julio HR, SB: 35, 38
John: THE YEAR.
Called up first: Cole Young (15)
Ben Williamson (2), Colt Emerson (1), Logan Evans (1)
Grant: I have so much skepticism of Jorge Polanco, Ryan Bliss, and everyday-player-Dylan Moore that I feel like Young will play significantly by the deadline.
M’s #1 prospect at the end of the season: Lazaro Montes (10)
Colt Emerson (6), Tai Peete (1)
M’s prospect biggest riser: Felnin Celesten (5)
Jurrangelo Cijntje (4), Lazaro Montes (4), Tai Peete (2), Ryan Sloan (2), Christian Little (1)
M’s prospect biggest faller: Harry Ford (5)
Michael Arroyo (3), Logan Evans (2), Jonny Farmelo (2), Felnin Celesten (1), Colt Emerson (1), Emerson Hancock (1), Lazaro Montes (1), Cole Young (1)
KP: I hate picking Evans here, but I was concerned about how his stuff played against higher-level competition this spring. He has to find a putaway pitch and also miss more bats to really make it at the next level.
Number of Mariners on the All-Star team: 3
Some of our Mariners Bold Predictions:
Anders: Tyler Locklear is the everyday 1B by JuneBee: Ben Williamson finishes the year as the starting third basemanIsabelle: Victor Robles gets MVP votesJake M: Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller go 1-2 in Cy Young votingLou: Mitch Garver leads the team in one or more offensive categories
Nick: Turns out Rowdy Tellez can see on the Mariners batter’s eye similar to Mike Trout, goes absolutely bananas.
Nick: Not much longer until we all learn very suddenly that Rowdy Tellez secretly sees the Mariners batter’s eye the same way Mike Trout does. People sitting in right field are going to need umbrellas, that’s how many baseballs he’s putting in those seats this season.
Kate: It doesn’t actually feel that bold to predict Bryce Miller as an All-Star, given how he likes to tread behind Gilbert step by step, so I feel like I cheated here.
Some of our MLB Bold Predictions:
Bee: A team will announce a name/branding changeEric: Rob Manfred resignsGrant: Kristian Campbell puts up a 4 win seasonIsabelle: Two expansion teams announced, in Nashville and Mexico CityJohn: Manfred decides to institute ABS for the playoffs
Zach M: MLB formally announces expansion
Eric: Resign in disgrace, Manfred!!!!
