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Posted Mar 26, 2025 8:25 am EDT
- Could the Steelers select their next franchise passer at No. 21 overall? Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart has begun to rise up boards. The senior passer finished 2024 as one of the nation’s highest-graded passers in multiple facets and even has PFF’s John Kosko banging the table for him to be a top-15 pick.
Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes
With the 2025 NFL Draft less than a month away, we can use PFF’s Mock Draft Simulator to unearth patterns about how fans are drafting for their favorite teams.
While this won’t necessarily predict how the draft will go, it will give an indication of the players being targeted by certain fanbases.
Here are the 10 most common player-team pairings, along with five observations from the data.
- QB Cam Ward, Miami (FL) → Tennessee Titans (75.3%)
- DI Mason Graham, Michigan → Jacksonville Jaguars (55.3%)
- TE Tyler Warren, Penn State → Indianapolis Colts (40.9%)
- RB Ashton Jeanty, Boise State → Las Vegas Raiders (40.4%)
- EDGE Abdul Carter, Penn State → Cleveland Browns (35.5%)
- WR/CB Travis Hunter, Colorado → New York Giants (31.5%)
- QB Shedeur Sanders, Colorado → New York Giants (31.2%)
- EDGE Abdul Carter, Penn State → New England Patriots (31%)
- TE Colston Loveland, Michigan → Los Angeles Chargers (30.9%)
- WR/CB Travis Hunter, Colorado → Cleveland Browns (27.5%)
*Data accurate as of March 24
New England notably didn’t erase all concerns about its most glaring need — the offensive line — in free agency. Although the team added veterans such as Morgan Moses and Garrett Bradbury, that doesn’t profile as the sweeping change the unit needed to improve on its last-place ranking in 2024.
While not as popular a pick for simulator users — Membou is selected for New England in just 5.4% of mock drafts — there’s been a growing sentiment that Membou’s outstanding NFL Combine workout and solid measurements lifted his draft profile atop the offensive line board.
Membou’s fit in what will presumably be a gap-heavy scheme under offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is the biggest question here, as his athleticism would be better served in a wide-zone offense. But the junior tackle is no stranger to gap concepts, as Missouri ran the sixth most gap runs in the Power Four last season, with Membou posting an 85.1 PFF run-blocking grade.
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Per PFF’s Mock Draft Simulator metrics, Raiders drafters have a penchant for selecting two of the class’ most explosive offensive weapons: Ashton Jeanty (39.9%) and Tetairoa McMillan (23.8%). Either pick would bode well in a Vegas offense desperate for pivotal playmakers outside of Brock Bowers.
With Geno Smith secured under center, the Raiders could opt to find a WR1 with McMillan. A true X receiver with impact ability at the catch point, McMillan charted in the 86th percentile in contested catch rate over the past two seasons.
However, given the importance of the running game in every team ever coached by Pete Carroll and the prolific running game John Spytek helped author in Tampa Bay last season, Vegas brass would likely sprint the card in to pick Jeanty. Over the past two seasons, no running back in the nation generated more missed tackles forced per attempt (0.40) than the Boise State standout.
Generally, NFL teams hope to address pressing needs in free agency to bypass the randomness associated with the draft process. That was the exact approach general manager Ryan Poles took this offseason, taking care of his team’s most pressing needs in the trenches.
Now, the Bears are free to take a luxury pick with their top-10 selection, at least according to simulator users. Per metrics, Bears drafters are very keen on adding a true game-defining player — with Ashton Jeanty (12.7%), Malaki Starks (11.2%) and Tyler Warren (10.6%) topping the charts.
If Jeanty were to make it past Las Vegas, he very likely would be the pick. However, Chicago also has significant contingency options in the form of the class’s highest-ranked safety in Starks and tight end in Warren.
Starks, who earned 78.0-plus PFF grade in each of the past two seasons. would make the line of succession behind Kevin Byard clear while boosting an already talented secondary.
Pairing Warren with Cole Kmet would provide an outlet for the Bears to attack teams out of 12 personnel, a package that new head coach Ben Johnson — formerly the Lions‘ offensive coordinator — deployed at the second-highest rate in the NFL last season (37.6% of snaps).
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The third-most-projected team-prospect pairing is Tyler Warren heading to Indianapolis, with a whopping 40.5% of Colts mock drafters selecting the dynamic tight end. The addition projects well for an Indianapolis offense that already features some talented weapons and would provide Anthony Richardson with every opportunity to develop as a quarterback, a point PFF’s Dalton Wasserman made recently.
Shane Steichen’s offense could make excellent use of a do-it-all tight end with twitch, versatility and the ability to unlock the entire route tree. Over the past two seasons, Warren placed in the 88th percentile in separation rate and the 92nd percentile in yards per route run. Both are high marks in PFF’s stable receiving metrics.
With free agency in the rearview and the pre-draft process reaching a pivotal point, the football landscape continues to morph and take on new shapes. One of the most interesting among them is that the Steelers are still without a bona fide quarterback at the time of writing.
Aaron Rodgers has been floated as a likely option under center in Pittsburgh, which has only picked up steam following Russell Wilson’s signing with the Giants. However, a draft option has begun to arise in the form of Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart, who currently stands as the most selected player (12.2%) for Steelers drafters at the 21st pick.
Dart has begun to rise up boards. The senior passer finished 2024 as one of the nation’s highest-graded passers in multiple facets and even has PFF’s John Kosko banging the table for him to be drafted in the top 15.
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