The NFL draft is finally here, which means teams are making trades — and adding some chaos to the weekend. After going through the draft cycle with 30 of 32 teams keeping their first-round picks, draft day brought some action.
Of course, some people say we’ll find out who won draft-day trades in three or four years. Nonsense!
NFL general managers don’t have the benefit of hindsight when it comes to making trades, so why should analysts when evaluating those trades? I’m grading these deals immediately, based on the information available — just like the teams are doing.
To evaluate these deals, I’ll be relying heavily on our Approximate Value-based draft pick calculations, along with important factors such as positional value, salary cap implications, veteran impact and short- and long-term team outlook. Trades during the draft can be enormously consequential and can set the direction for a franchise for years to come, so don’t sleep on the importance of faring well here.
This page will be updated with deals as they come in throughout the draft:
NFL draft coverage:
Falcons trade with Rams, move back into Round 1
Falcons get: Nos. 26 and 101
Rams get: Nos. 46 and 242 and a 2026 first-round pick
Falcons grade: F
Rams trade: A
I’m sorry, what? Atlanta dealt a future first-rounder to move up from No. 46 to No. 26? For James Pearce Jr.? There’s no way to spin it: This is a poor team-building choice, plain and simple.
It’s not that the Falcons couldn’t use a second pass rusher (they drafted Jalon Walker at pick No. 15). It’s that they surrendered what could end up being a ton of draft capital.
Let’s break down the numbers. If we assume no discount for future picks and put the future first at pick No. 16 next year, this is what the Falcons have done:
- Gave up an early third-round pick’s worth of surplus value.
- Spent more draft capital on Pearce than they did on Walker.
That is the average outcome. The downside is dramatically and asymmetrically worse. The Falcons are starting Michael Penix Jr. — largely still an unknown! — at quarterback next season. The chance that the pick they gave to the Rams could be top 10, or even top five, is not trivial at all. If that happens, the value of what Atlanta surrendered quickly moves higher.
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Also, it’s hard to argue there was a tier drop at edge after Pearce. Mike Green and Donovan Ezeiruaku are still on the board entering Round 2. It sure doesn’t seem as if the Falcons needed to pay a premium for Pearce. Think about what a first-round pick can net a team in the veteran trade market. Now compare that simply to the difference between Pearce and the player the Falcons could have had at 46.
To be fair, I’ve omitted the only piece of good news for Atlanta in this exchange — picking up pick No. 101 in this year’s draft. But this sure looks like a panic move when no panic was required.
The Rams deserve credit for avoiding a mistake teams always make — not wanting to trade down “too far.” They gained a ton of draft pick value next year — when they might need a quarterback! — and still get to make a pick at No. 46 that could help them make a title run in 2025.
Giants trade with Texans, move back into Round 1
Giants get: No. 25
Texans get: Nos. 34 and 99 and a 2026 third-round pick
Giants grade: B+
Texans grade: A-
The Giants pulled it off, taking Abdul Carter at No. 3 and working back into the first round to get a young quarterback. Jaxson Dart joins a quarterback room that already has Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston in it, but those two veterans are meant to be placeholders for the Giants.
The Giants needed a QB with long-term upside and deserve credit for reading the draft correctly. They didn’t need to burn their No. 3 pick on a quarterback, so they took Carter and still got a quarterback.
This came at a cost, of course. Typically, the type of players teams get at No. 25 are not particularly different from those they could get at 34. And they surrendered two third-round picks to make that move.
That would be an overpay for a non-quarterback. But usual trade calculations fly out the window for quarterbacks, as the upside of hitting at that position is typically far greater than at others. It makes sense for the Giants to take this risk and walk away with a prospect with some upside.
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‘Wow!’ McAfee reacts to Giants selecting Jaxson Dart
Pat McAfee breaks down how Jaxson Dart can succeed with the Giants.
The Giants aren’t a great team, but there are players to work with in elite left tackle Andrew Thomas, star second-year receiver Malik Nabers and a pass rush that added Carter to standouts Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux. If Dart hits, they would be in decent shape and perhaps save the jobs of coach Brian Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen.
This trade is like finding money for the Texans. They weren’t going to take Dart or any other quarterback, so they’re almost certainly coming out ahead. I would have pushed for a draft pick swap that involved a future first-rounder (like the Rams did one pick later) because the downside risk of a team with a rookie QB is high. But if that weren’t on the table, this was good value for Houston.
With any luck, an offensive lineman the Texans are interested in could still be available when Houston is on the clock at pick No. 34. That’s the hidden value of trading down — there’s some chance the player you were going to take might still be available later.
Browns trade No. 2 pick to Jaguars for No. 5
Jaguars get: Nos. 2, 104, 200
Browns get: Nos. 5, 36, 126, first-round pick in 2026
Jaguars’ grade: B-
Browns’ grade: B
The Jaguars and Browns just pulled off a mammoth trade that is fascinating and will have a lasting impact for years to come. Travis Hunter, the two-way prospect largely considered to be the best player in this draft, is heading to the Jaguars after they moved up to No. 2.
Calling Hunter a top prospect sells him short. Way short. His multipositional excellence sets him apart. It remains to be seen how much Hunter can play two ways in Jacksonville, but he did it in college (at altitude!) and there’s some chance that the Jaguars drafted the best cornerback and best wide receiver in this year’s draft. Both are needs for the Jaguars.
They need to support quarterback Trevor Lawrence, and this is a big step in that direction assuming Hunter will play a fair share at receiver. On defense, Hunter can play corner opposite Tyson Campbell. If Hunter reaches his potential, Jacksonville could have a strong cornerback duo capable of shutting down opposing wideouts.
• Go to Draftcast | Round 1 pick reaction
• Kiper’s Day 1 winners and losers
• First-round questions | Round 2 mock
• Order | Best available | Trades | More
I also believe Hunter has a uniquely low bust chance because of his flexibility. If he doesn’t work out at cornerback, the Jaguars might still have a great wide receiver. And vice versa. That’s what the Jaguars gained and the Browns lost. But there was certainly a cost — next year’s first-round pick and, essentially, an early second-rounder.
Was it worth it? As fun as it is, I have a hard time saying yes. Research over multiple decades has shown that NFL teams are overconfident in their ability to assess college prospects and that the trade market is inefficient for non-quarterbacks. By our Approximate Value-based draft pick value chart, the Browns gained surplus value worth the equivalent of a top-10 pick, assuming no discount for future picks and that next year’s pick is No. 16.
The cost of the “overpay” by our chart is a shade less than what Houston paid a couple years ago to move up for Will Anderson Jr., but make no mistake, the Jaguars paid a quarterback price in this trade.
Are there mitigating factors here? Yes. Hunter is potentially two players in one, and that makes me view this more favorably than perhaps any other early non-QB trade up. In addition, this draft is viewed as having a substantial fall-off after Cam Ward, Hunter and Abdul Carter. The Jaguars avoided that with this deal.
But again, one cannot ignore the value of the package the Browns received and how convenient this trade is for their timeline. Cleveland badly needs a quarterback and didn’t have a great chance to pick one at No. 2. This deal allows the Browns to strengthen the roster this year (and they can still draft a quarterback in the late first or early second round if they choose) and then have extra draft capital to potentially draft a QB next year.
Because the Browns slipped past the top-tier player segment of the draft, I would have kept trading. Doing so could have set in motion a plan to land a ton of value over this and next year’s draft. Instead, they sat at No. 5 and selected defensive tackle Mason Graham. (To be fair, it’s not always possible to make a trade down early in the first round.)
In Graham, the Browns get a consensus top prospect at a spot where the Browns could use a star, but he’s not on the same overall plane as Hunter and might have been on the same plane as players the Browns could have selected after trading down again.
