5 initial thoughts on Celtics-Magic first-round series

The title defense is officially on.

Boston’s bid to become the first back-to-back NBA champion since the Golden State Warriors in 2017 and 2018 will begin against the Magic after Orlando took down the Atlanta Hawks 120-95 in the Play-In Tournament.

It’s the second straight postseason appearance for the Magic, who are seeking their first playoff series win since the 2009-10 season when they swept the Bobcats and Hawks before falling to the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals in six games.

As for the Celtics, they’ll look to advance to the conference finals for the eighth time in nine years.

Game 1 is set for Sunday afternoon at TD Garden, with tip-off scheduled for 3:30 p.m.

The #Celtics round one schedule: pic.twitter.com/fUAoNiNZkK

— Justin Turpin (@JustinmTurpin) April 16, 2025

Here are five initial thoughts on the series:

The Magic play some tough, physical defense

Orlando was one of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season. They allowed just 105.5 points per game, the fewest in the league. They held opponents under 100 points 21 times — more than any other team. Their 109.1 defensive rating ranked second in the NBA.

They were especially strong defending the perimeter. Teams averaged only 31.4 three-point attempts and 11.4 makes per game against the Magic, both league lows. In their three games against Boston, Orlando held the Celtics 11.5 attempts below their season average.

Boston had its two worst three-point shooting games of the season against Orlando, making just seven and eight in those matchups — and losing both. In the December 23rd loss in Orlando, the Celtics attempted only 33 threes, their fewest in a game all season.

There’s important context, though. In the game the Celtics hit seven threes, Boston was without its entire top six: Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis, and Al Horford. In the game they hit eight, Tatum was a late scratch due to illness.

In their middle meeting at TD Garden, the Celtics knocked down 17 threes (on just 37 attempts), tied for the second-most Orlando gave up all year. Boston had its full lineup for that one and won by 27.

This defense is going to give Boston fits. They guard the perimeter, force turnovers (16.2 per game, second-most in the NBA), and block shots (6.0 per game, most in the league). They also held opponents to 22.8 assists per game, the fewest in the league.

Boston, and Porzingis in particular, will have the mismatches to exploit. But Orlando’s defense is disruptive and will force scoring droughts. The Celtics will have to find ways to push through them.

As good as the Magic are defensively, they struggle mightily on offense

While they held opponents under 100 points more than any other team, they were also held under 100 more than any other team, failing to pass the century mark 28 times. They were 4-24 in those games. One of those wins came when Boston was resting everybody, and Orlando scored just 96 points. Their 105.4 points per game ranked 28th in the league, with their 44.5% shooting percentage coming in at 27th.

For perspective, Boston was held under 105 points just 12 times all season. The Celtics averaged 116.3 points per game — a mark that Orlando only reached 18 times

Orlando’s 31.8% three-point percentage ranked dead last in the NBA. The NBA average this season was 36.0%, a mark only two of their active players reached: Caleb Houstan (40.0%) and Cory Joseph (36.4%). They ranked 11th and 14th on the team in minutes played.

The Celtics — as we’ve seen all year — are going to be comfortable letting certain Magic players shoot. They’ll sag off, pull a big closer to the rim, and live with the results.

There will be times when Orlando goes scoreless for extended stretches (as we saw in the Play-In), giving Boston the chance to make a run. If the Celtics capitalize and balloon a lead, Orlando might not have the firepower to punch back — especially against a Celtics defense that held opponents to 107.2 points per game (second-lowest in the league), 45.0% shooting from the field (second-worst), and 34.7% from three (third-worst).

Orlando got hot (or healthy) at the right time

The Magic have been ravaged by injuries this season. Starting point guard Jalen Suggs — their third-leading scorer and an All-Defensive presence — was limited to just 35 games before undergoing season-ending knee surgery. Mo Wagner, their leading catalyst off the bench, suffered a season-ending torn ACL in December.

In one of the more bizarre injury situations of the season, Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner both missed extended time with torn obliques. Banchero, an All-Star last season, missed 27 games due to the injury and seven more for return-to-competition reconditioning. Wagner missed 16 games with the injury and another four for reconditioning.

The injuries dug the Magic into a hole record-wise, dropping them from eight games above .500 to six below. But a strong close to the season salvaged their record, bringing them back to .500 at 41-41.

Orlando finished the season 9-3, tied for the second-best record in the league over that span. Banchero had at least 30 points in six of those games, averaging 28.5 points on 47.6% shooting, along with 8.4 rebounds and 4.8 assists — one of just four players to post those numbers.

Wagner scored at least 20 in each of those games, averaging 23.7 points on 46.4% shooting. During that stretch, their offense climbed to 19th (115.1 PPG) while their defense remained elite, ranking first (106.7), giving them the sixth-best net rating in the league (+8.4).

Yes, it’s a small sample size — and the Celtics also finished strong — but there’s something to be said about momentum heading into the postseason. This stretch might be a better reflection of what Orlando could’ve looked like had they stayed healthy.

How does Jaylen Brown hold up?

This will be a physical series, and Jaylen Brown is usually one of the guys who set the tone for the Celtics in that department.

He’s expected to suit up for Game 1, but can he handle his usual workload? Will he be able to dictate the pace and match the Magic’s physicality?

He hasn’t surpassed the 30-minute mark since the Thunder game on March 12. He was able to still be efficient after returning from a three-game absence due to the right knee posterior impingement, averaging 17.6 points on 51.8% shooting from the field and 40.6% from three, 4.0 rebounds, and 3.1 assists, but at times, very clearly wasn’t himself.

It’s the biggest question hanging over the Celtics as they begin their title defense: How will Jaylen Brown hold up with that lingering knee injury? And which version of him do the Celtics get?

The Magic have given the Celtics trouble in the past, but that’s not a worry here

Orlando has given the Celtics trouble. They’re one of the few teams Joe Mazzulla has a losing record against (4-6), and Boston hasn’t won in Orlando since October 2022. They also haven’t swept the season series since 2021-22.

There’s no denying the Magic could give Boston some issues… but I just don’t see it — not with that offense.

Maybe they steal a game behind a big Banchero night and a strong defensive effort forcing Boston misses from beyond the arc, but that’s about it. There’s a reason the Celtics opened as -6000 favorites. This is a series Boston should handle with ease, but it’ll still test their discipline — taking care of the ball, capitalizing on runs, winning the non-Banchero minutes, etc.

It’s a good early mental and physical test for the Celtics, who’ll need to match playoff intensity from the jump.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *