The SPC has issued a high risk for severe thunderstorms across northern and central Alabama, with a dangerous tornado outbreak expected this afternoon and evening. Numerous strong to violent, long-track tornadoes are likely as supercells develop and track northeast across the state. The most intense storms are expected to enter western Alabama by late afternoon, spreading east through the evening and into the overnight hours. A powerful low-level jet will strengthen, increasing wind shear and enhancing the tornado threat. Conditions will be highly favorable for EF3+ tornadoes, along with large hail and damaging winds. This is a life-threatening weather event, and residents should be prepared to take action when warnings are issued.
Here is the text of the new Day One Convective Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center.
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025
Valid 151200Z – 161200Z
…THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A CORRIDOR
FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA…
…SUMMARY… A tornado outbreak is expected across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat should begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi during the late morning to afternoon, spread across Alabama late day into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle
and Georgia Saturday night.
…Central Gulf States/Tennessee Valley Region…
Strong cyclone that is lifting northeast across the upper MS Valley will eject into northwest Ontario later today as a very strong mid-level speed max digs southeast across northern Mexico into south-central TX. Later tonight, this jet will translate into the central Gulf States with winds in excess of 110kt. In response to this feature, a surface low should evolve along the trailing boundary along the TX/LA border early in the period, then track northeast into western KY by 16/00z. Additionally, an intense LLJ will evolve by mid day across northern MS and strengthen during the afternoon as it gradually shifts downstream into AL/middle TN/KY by early evening. Net result should be for a bit higher moisture
content to advance farther north than previous thought.
Early this morning, an arcing band of scattered supercells extended across southern IL into eastern AR. More isolated activity has persisted much of the late evening across portions of MS. Latest thinking is convective overturning should remain minimal across the lower MS Valley and this will allow significant destabilization to materialize ahead of the surface low early in the period. Latest surface data depicts lower 70s dew points across southern LA/southwest MS, with mid 60s approaching the south side of the Memphis metro. Confidence is increasing that a corridor of strong buoyancy and intense shear will be in place prior to the aforementioned speed max/short-wave trough. Forecast soundings exhibit steep mid-level lapse rates with ESRH in excess of 500 m2/s2 across a broad swath of the central Gulf States, especially the
categorical High Risk delineation.
While scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across the western TN Valley, convection should increase in intensity by late morning across LA as the leading edge of the approaching short wave begins to influence this region. Continued boundary-layer heating will lead to subsequent development and supercells should mature and race northeast as the flow strengthens. This flow regime favors long-lived tornadoes, and the parameter space suggests potentially violent, long-track tornadoes. This activity will grow upscale in both coverage and intensity through late afternoon as the overall severe complex shifts downstream. Large hail and damaging winds may also accompany these storms, but the primary concern today will be the likelihood
for a tornado outbreak, especially across Mississippi into Alabama.
..Darrow/Moore.. 03/15/2025
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0607Z (1:07AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
Category: Alabama’s Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather
Page 2
A dangerous tornado outbreak is expected across northern and central Alabama this afternoon and evening, with numerous strong to violent, long-track tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail posing a significant threat.
Storms will start moving into Northwest and West Central Alabama after 2:30 a.m. They could be severe and may even produce tornadoes.
It is moving in the general direction of Tupelo. The environment will become slightly less unstable the further northeast it goes, but the shear will remain just as strong so there is no sign the storm will weaken.
A dangerous tornado outbreak is expected, with long-track, violent tornadoes, destructive winds, and large hail posing a significant threat across Alabama and the Deep South.
The second round of storms arrives Friday night with the potential for severe weather, including damaging winds and large hail, and the main event unfolds Saturday with a significant outbreak expected across Alabama and Mississippi, featuring supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes, destructive winds, and large hail.
The storms over North Central Alabama have weakened in the past hour and no warnings are in effect. The strongest storm is over Winston County and will push into northern Walker and eventually southern Cullman, Blount, and northern Jefferson counties.
Severe thunderstorms in northwestern Winston County are producing 60 mph wind gusts, quarter-size hail, and dangerous lightning—seek shelter indoors immediately.
Severe thunderstorms moving east through southeastern Franklin and southwestern Lawrence counties may produce 60 mph winds, quarter-size hail, and frequent lightning—seek shelter indoors immediately.
Strong storms are already forming over West Alabama this morning.
Smoke from a prescribed burn in Winston County has drifted into the Birmingham area, prompting a Code Red Air Quality Alert for Jefferson and Shelby Counties on Tuesday.. Air quality is not good tonight either.
No severe storms are expected across Central Alabama this afternoon, but we are monitoring a severe weather threat that is firming up for Saturday.
Today will bring rain and cooler temperatures as spring approaches, with fluctuating conditions, midweek showers, and a gradual warming trend into next week.
There are a couple of storms over South Central Alabama tonight with gusty winds and lightning, but there won’t be severe. Closer to the coast, there could be some severe weather overnight.
A line of severe storms will sweep across Alabama this evening and overnight, bringing a threat of damaging winds and a few spin up tornadoes. There is a danger of more significant tornadoes over southwestern Alabama, south of a line from Livingston to Linden to Beatrice to Evergreen.
