If you’re like me, you’ve been consuming just about every mock draft coming from a notable source for the past month or two — or maybe longer. But now the NFL Draft is nearly here, so that means it’s time to put up or shut up. Because the NFL Draft is wildly popular, sportsbooks have been so kind as to give us plenty of options to bet on the event.
My process for betting on the NFL Draft is simple. I try to compile as many prominent-source mock drafts as possible to get an idea of what’s likely to happen. I then pair that with our consensus big board to get an idea of where these players are actually ranked. Remember, a lot of the time the consensus opinions of insiders are better than any one source, and some NFL teams are using this same strategy.
Now, those NFL teams aren’t betting on the draft, but they’re doing it to see who is likely to be available at every pick. In an indirect way, I’m trying to do the same thing when betting on the draft. But that’s enough blabbering, let’s get to the bets.
2025 NFL Draft best bets
All bets are for one unit unless otherwise noted.
Tetairoa McMillan draft position under 12.5 (-186)
McMillan had some doubters earlier in the draft season, but the consensus big board didn’t waver and has him as a fringe top-10 player in the draft class. If he’s available at 12, I think the Cowboys would be very wise to draft him to be WR2 behind CeeDee Lamb, and I’m not sure he’ll even be available by then.
Armand Membou drafted in top five (+1300) (risk 0.1 units)
I think Membou is viewed as OT1 by a lot of teams in this draft, and despite the smoke surrounding Will Campbell to the Patriots at the fourth pick, I think Membou has a decent chance to be selected in the first five picks.
Ashton Jeanty over 6.5 (+300) (risk 0.5 units)
This goes hand in hand with the Membou bet, I guess, so I’ll reduce some risk here. I do not believe the Patriots, Jaguars or Raiders are in a position to draft a running back right now. And I’m not a believer in anyone trading up for a running back in the year 2025.
Saints to draft Ashton Jeanty (+6000) (0.1 units)
Omarion Hampton over 20.5 (+118)
There is a lot of smoke about Hampton going to Denver with pick 20, but I really see that as the only opportunity for him to go under here. In other words, I’d be shocked if a team selected Hampton earlier than that, and I’m not comfortable saying that Denver is over 50 percent to select Hampton at that exact pick. I think we are getting ahead of ourselves here, thinking he should be favored to go inside the first 20 picks.
Luther Burden III to be drafted in the first round (+250)
Burden tumbled down the draft boards, but it wasn’t too long ago that he seemed like a sure lock to make the first round. I think we have gone a little bit too far here, and I’ll buy low on him as possibly being a pick late in the first round. He’s a slot receiver, so that dings his value a bit, but there are a few teams in the final few picks that could use a playmaker like Burden to help their offense.
Kenneth Grant to be drafted in the first round (-325)
Yeah, this is a bit chalky, but I don’t see a world where someone with Grant’s ceiling isn’t selected in the first round. The icing on the cake here is that his old college coach, Jim Harbaugh, is drafting with a big need at defensive tackle.
(Photo of Ashton Jeanty: Justin Casterline / Getty Images)
