The Chicago Cubs are aiming to bounce back from a rough loss to the San Diego Padres on Monday night, and they’ll have lefty ace Shota Imanaga on the bump.
The Cubs have already played 19 games this season, and they’ve been one of the better offensive teams in baseball, but they did lose All-Star Justin Steele for the remainder of the campaign with an elbow injury.
San Diego, on the other hand, is making a statement to open 2025, winning 14 of its first 17 games. It is set as a home underdog in this matchup with Randy Vasquez on the bump, but my favorite bet in this matchup isn’t taking either team to win.
Here’s a breakdown of that bet, the latest odds and player props, and more for Tuesday’s National League battle.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best MLB props column – Painting Corners – why bettors should fade Randy Vasquez in this matchup:
No team in Major League Baseball has drawn more walks than the Chicago Cubs, and that could spell trouble for San Diego Padres righty Randy Vasquez on Tuesday night.
Vasquez has walked 12 batters in 15.2 innings of work this season, posting at least three walks in all of his starts. While the Padres righty has a 1.72 ERA, he has a concerning 4.53 FIP.
Chicago should be able to make the youngster work on Tuesday night, especially since he’s struggling to generate many swings and misses. Vasquez ranks in the second percentile in whiff percentage, ninth percentile in chase percentage and fourth percentile in strikeout percentage, per Statcast.
He’s a great fade candidate on Tuesday.
Even though Vasquez and Imanaga both have ERAs that are south of 3.00, I don’t think they’re guaranteed to keep this game low-scoring.
First off, these are two of the best offenses in baseball right now, as the Cubs are third in MLB in OPS and the Padres are fourth. On top of that, the OVER is 13-5-1 in Chicago’s 19 games – the best mark in MLB when it comes to hitting the OVER.
Both Imanaga and Vasquez have FIPs that are over 4.00, and I already detailed that Vasquez’s walk issues are a major concern for him and the Padres in this matchup.
Plus, as good as Imanaga has looked in a couple of his starts, he’s still in the 37th percentile in expected ERA, per Statcast.
I think this total is way too low for two thriving offenses on Tuesday.
Pick: OVER 8 (-105 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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