In another, though, this would be the most brutal of the lot. Lawson has driven only two grands prix for Red Bull – at Melbourne and Shanghai. On circuits he’d never raced on before, Lawson understandably struggled – that’s not in question.
What’s surprising, though, is that Red Bull are so quick to pull the trigger, having backed Lawson as Sergio Perez’s replacement at the end of last year.
Red Bull’s RB21 is notoriously the most difficult car to drive on the grid, both this year and those preceding it. The car is geared towards Verstappen’s aggressive driving style, notably maximising the ability to maintain speed in and out of corners.
That has accounted for three other drivers, with Lawson reportedly in line to be the fourth.
This year, even Verstappen has made noises about how much more difficulty he’s had in driving the RB21, after McLaren stormed to back-to-back race wins.
Since 2019, no driver has been able to truly establish themselves as Verstappen’s partner.
Alex Albon, now at Williams, was afforded 26 races – just over a full season – before he was given the boot. Pierre Gasly, now at Alpine, was given only 12.
Perez himself had 90 races at Red Bull, but his form fell away so quickly that he was terminated just months after signing a new, two-year contract.
In all three cases, though, their time with Red Bull was done as soon as the call was made.
Liam Lawson at the Chinese Grand Prix. Photo / Red Bull
That’s the position in which Lawson now finds himself. If the Dutch reports stack up and Lawson has lost the seat, he cannot have a future with Red Bull.
When Gasly was demoted mid-season in 2019, he spent another 70 races back with the junior side, then named AlphaTauri, now Racing Bulls.
And even as he impressed in a team at the back of the midfield, no return to Red Bull ever eventuated, even with a maiden race victory at the 2020 Italian Grand Prix on his CV.
Albon was released entirely and eventually found a new home at Williams, where he’s become a very stable driver for the former world champions as they look to re-establish themselves as a powerhouse in the sport.
Perez hasn’t been out of Red Bull for more than a few months and could end up elsewhere on the grid too, especially with Cadillac to enter Formula One next year.
What does that mean for Lawson, though? In Shanghai, Red Bull senior team principal Christian Horner unequivocally threw his support behind the Kiwi.
“I think Liam still has got potential, we’re just not realising that at the moment,” he said after China. “He’s a young guy, we’ve got a duty to look after him and we’re going to do the best that we can to support him.”
However, demoting Lawson now would – as was the case with his predecessors – pretty much end his hopes of ever driving a Red Bull again.
The biggest question, then, is where to from here? Last year, as he fought to try to secure a seat for 2025, Lawson was not short of admirers elsewhere.
Audi-backed Sauber are understood to have put a contract on the table for Lawson, should Red Bull have failed to activate their 2025 option on him in time.
Williams also made an offer to take Lawson on loan after they sacked Logan Sargeant, only for Red Bull to block that move so they could put the Kiwi into Racing Bulls at Daniel Ricciardo’s expense.
Interestingly, Williams could find themselves with a free seat, with Red Bull understood to have first option on Albon. Given Tsunoda’s place within Red Bull is linked to engine supplier Honda, there is a very real chance he will also be out of a seat come the end of 2025 anyway.
That’s not to mention Cadillac needing to fill two seats before their first season next year.
Regardless, given his struggles in the Red Bull car, demotion to Racing Bulls could be exactly what Lawson needs right now. It’s a more forgiving car, with much greater margin for error than what he’s been asked to drive so far.
However, if Red Bull have truly made the decision to move on from Lawson after just two races, there cannot be any way back from here.
Alex Powell is a sports journalist for the NZ Herald. He has been a sports journalist since 2016, and previously worked for both Newshub and 1News.
