Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo have been the NBA’s top-scoring duo for most of the season. No matter what was going wrong around the Milwaukee Bucks, coach Doc Rivers and the whole organization would point to how well their two All-Stars were performing — and how much it would mean to get them to the postseason healthy.
That’s why Tuesday night’s news that Lillard will be out indefinitely with a deep vein thrombosis (blood clots) in his right calf is especially devastating for the team’s on-court prospects. This season was built around the idea of getting the most possible out of the partnership of the nine-time All-Star point guard and Antetokounmpo. With only three and a half weeks until the playoffs begin, the Bucks will need to change things on the fly.
In the 13 games Lillard has missed this season, Milwaukee is just 8-5. Digging deeper into the data, per Cleaning the Glass, lineups that do not feature Lillard have been plus-3.9 points per 100 possessions in 2,453 possessions. While those lineups have struggled offensively (114.9 points per 100 possessions, 54th percentile), they have made up for it with a strong defensive effort (111.0 points per 100 possessions, 81st percentile).
Leaning into their defense will almost certainly need to be the Bucks’ path forward without their superstar point guard. Since the All-Star break, they have struggled mightily on the offensive end, posting the NBA’s 18th-best offensive rating in their last 18 games. During that same stretch, though, they have posted the league’s third-best defensive rating.
“Really, I don’t care about offense,” Antetokounmpo said after the Bucks’ 108-106 loss to the Phoenix Suns on Monday. “I don’t care about offense because we can score the ball and still win the game. We have to play defense. This group, we have time. We have 11 games left. We have time to keep on playing together, keep on figuring out how we want to play with one another, each other’s spots.
“I think, as a team, we just gotta focus on our mentality of competing for 48 minutes, because that’s the only way we have a chance. We are a big team. We’re a very long team. We play fast. We have people that can score the ball, but we have to put all of this together. … There’s going to be days that we score the ball, there’s going to be days that we don’t score the ball. We can’t expect that it’s going to be pretty.”
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After bringing up the idea of ugly wins, Antetokounmpo rolled through a mental Rolodex of scores from previous playoff endeavors, specifically calling out the 86-83 win over the Brooklyn Nets in Game 3 of the Bucks’ second-round series during their 2021 championship run.
“We have a team that can muck up the game,” Antetokounmpo said. “We can be more physical. We can push guys out of their spots. … As long as we can figure out a way to win the game, that’s all that matters.”
Without Lillard, the Bucks will have to lean into that identity, and they have already started to do it in the last three games. While Kevin Porter Jr. has been spectacular since joining the team, Rivers has shown little interest in moving him to the starting lineup, instead opting for Ryan Rollins.
“It just starts us with a defensive presence,” Rivers said before Monday’s game in Phoenix. “Putting as much shooting around Giannis (as possible) is always important, and Ryan is an excellent shooter. Defensively, Ryan is terrific.”
If the Bucks plan to lean into a stronger defensive identity without Lillard, as Antetokounmpo suggested, Rollins will play a significant role. All season, the Bucks have been at their best defensively when they’ve had a strong defender at the point of attack willing to pick up opponents full court. Rollins has demonstrated why that makes a difference over the last three games.
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“Obviously, nobody is going to be Dame but Dame,” Bucks center Brook Lopez said when asked about Rollins. “He’s done a great job coming in, being himself and finding a niche, that like Dame, only he can do. It’s specifically Ryan. He comes out there and he makes a difference in his way. He gets into guys, defends them full-court, picks up 94 feet.”
Rollins has turned his pressure into steals and blocks that can help the Bucks get out on the break.
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“He plays the right way, watches a lot of film, talks a lot with (Bucks coaching advisor Rajon) Rondo,” Antetokounmpo said. “He listens to us. He plays the right way. He plays with a lot of energy. He picks guys up full-court, turns them two, three times before they get to half court. They’re getting into their offense at 17 or 14 (seconds). That’s his job. He understands his job.
“He’s helped us throughout this whole season, and any time his number is called, he’s always ready to go. And now he’s going to be able to play more games, more minutes, and I think he’s getting himself mentally prepared for that. So, yeah, I just love playing with him.”
Rollins has only played 578 minutes this season, but he has one of the team’s best net ratings. With Rollins on the floor this season, the Bucks have outscored opponents by 5.7 points per 100 possessions with an offensive rating of 117.2 (72nd percentile) and defensive rating of 111.5 (78th percentile). Those numbers may decrease if Rollins continues to play against the other team’s starters, but if Rivers is looking to build a more consistent defensive identity, it would make sense to keep starting Rollins.
But Rollins will not be alone in trying to replace Lillard’s production. Rivers will also rely on Porter, who has put up strong individual offensive numbers since joining the Bucks at the trade deadline while contributing to strong defensive units. Milwaukee lineups featuring Porter have outscored opponents 3.2 points per 100 possessions with an offensive rating of 113.8 (49th percentile) and a defensive rating of 110.6 (84th percentile).
The defensive ability of Ryans and Porter makes Antetokounmpo’s desire to “muck up” games without Lillard look like a viable strategy.
Porter tends to be more of a risk-taker than Rollins defensively. While Rollins works to turn a point guard two or three times in the backcourt, Porter will look for opportunities to jump passing lanes or create a turnover as a help defender in half-court situations.
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Now, the Bucks will have to see if they can both make an impact playing against a higher level of competition, as they’ll likely play against starters more often than they did with Lillard on the floor.
If Porter can’t flourish defensively in a larger role, the Bucks will need to find a way to turn his impressive shooting percentages — 48.2 percent overall, 52.3 percent from mid-range, 43.9 percent from 3 — into a more useful driver of team offensive success. With his ability to create off the dribble, Porter could be an offensive engine of sorts, but it will require him to do a bit more and recapture some of what he did when he was with the Houston Rockets.
“Individually, this is what I do,” Porter said when asked about taking on a larger load without Lillard after the Bucks’ 114-108 win over the Sacramento Kings. “I had the luxury of being the No. 1 option on a team before, so the pressure and everything, I feed off of it. My guys trust me to make plays and be me, and I trust them to make their shots and do the same, so there’s a lot of trust on this team.”
For the Bucks to stay competitive for the foreseeable future, trust will be a necessity. Rollins and Porter are not Lillard, but they have put together strong seasons in small sample sizes thus far, and Milwaukee needs to figure out how to maximize their talents. The way the Bucks play will need to change dramatically, but if their players and strategies are deployed correctly, they can still find a way.
(Photo: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)
