The Pacers will have to launch their NBA Finals comeback campaign without one of their brightest stars.

Why it matters: In a best-case scenario, the Achilles injury that sent Tyrese Haliburton crashing to the floor early in Game 7 will keep him sidelined for most of next season.

• In a worst-case scenario, the Hali who thrilled us and hoops fans across the globe will never play at the same level again.

The big picture: A similar injury ended the postseasons of the Bucks’ Damian Lillard and the Celtics’ Jayson Tatum, creating a power void in the NBA’s Eastern Conference big enough for LeBron James to potentially step into.

What they’re saying: “What happened with Tyrese … all of our hearts dropped. But he will be back,” Pacers coach Rick Carlisle said after Game 7. “He authored one of the great individual playoff runs in the history of the NBA with dramatic play after dramatic play. It was just something that no one’s ever seen, and did it as one of 17. That’s the beautiful thing about him.”

State of play: Because an Achilles rupture is a relatively common injury in elite athletes, we can get a decent idea of what Haliburton’s road to recovery may look like — though it varies from players who seemingly never lost a step to others who had to walk away from the game.

The bad news: Among professional athletes, NBA players have some of the poorest stats when it comes to returning to form post-Achilles injury, according to a 2022 study published in the British Journal of Sports Medicine.

• The meta-analysis of return-to-play and performance after surgical repair for NBA, NFL, MLB and male professional soccer players found that the sports with explosive demands, such as basketball, generally saw a greater decrease in performance after injury.

By the numbers: 44%-64% of NBA players returned to play for at least two years after recovery from surgery to repair an Achilles injury.

• The analysis found that on average, players saw a significant decrease in the number of games and minutes per game played in the first two years after injury.
• Researchers also found a significant drop in the player efficiency rating — a standardized measure commonly used in the NBA that calculates a per-minute rating of a player’s performance — in the first two seasons following injury.

Yes, but: One study found that the difference between injured and non-injured players’ efficiency decreased by the third year back for those who were still playing three years after an Achilles injury.

A caveat: While, in general, studies of NBA players post-Achilles injury demonstrated a significant negative effect on performance, there are exceptions to every rule.

• Dominique Wilkins returned to the court just 10 months after tearing his Achilles in early 1992 and went on to have an All-Star season where he averaged 29.9 points per game.

The bottom line: Haliburton loves to shock the sports world by doing the “impossible.” He’s down, but that doesn’t mean he’s out.