After almost a month of the inaugural 32-team version of the Club World Cup, just two of those sides are still standing.
Paris Saint-Germain will face Chelsea at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, a few miles outside New York City, later on Sunday, with this final being a showdown between two of the champions from this year’s three European club competitions.
Chelsea have continued their momentum after triumphing in the third-tier Conference League, with coach Enzo Maresca able to maintain consistent positive results despite plenty of rotation in personnel. Meanwhile, Luis Enrique’s Champions League-winning PSG have been on another level during their challenge in the United States, conceding just one goal across six games in the competition so far, and swatting aside the might of both Bayern Munich and Real Madrid in the previous two rounds en route to this match.
It is now blindingly obvious that PSG are the world’s best football team
Interestingly, these clubs have not faced each other in a competitive match since PSG dispatched Chelsea 4-2 on aggregate in a two-leg Champions League last-16 tie in the 2015-16 season.
So, how might things go in New Jersey today? Through our data and tactical lens, allow The Athletic to walk you through some key themes that might be crucial in the final…
Can Chelsea stop PSG’s danger from wide areas?
As so many of Europe’s elite sides have found out, going toe-to-toe with Paris Saint-Germain can be something of a fruitless task. Luis Enrique’s side are set up for nearly every scenario their opponents can throw at them, with the capacity to play with slow, considered possession or launch a direct, transitional attack.
What you can always guarantee is that the current French and European champions will look to hurt you in wide areas. The players filling those spaces can be a rotating cast — from any one of their fluid front line, to an overlapping or underlapping full-back, or a supporting midfielder.
Mapping PSG’s attacking touches across the pitch, such a low share in the middle third highlights just how often they look to work the ball into those channels on the flanks.
When you have players to call upon with the trickery and speed that Luis Enrique can, it is hardly a surprise that this pattern emerges.
“We live in a world of passing, but the common thing with PSG is they are all dribblers,” long-time Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger said at a FIFA technical study group event this week. “They can go one v one, and then make the pass. (Ousmane) Dembele, (Bradley) Barcola, (Desire) Doue, they all go at you first. They are not scared of you. That’s very interesting to see from a dominant team.”
The numbers back up what the eyes see. Yes, PSG are in the final so have played more matches than almost all the other clubs involved but no player in the tournament has attempted more take-ons than Doue (41), closely followed by team-mates Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (34) and Barcola (22). At any level, raw pace and skill break defences — PSG simply have more of both than most.
For Maresca’s side, the blueprint may be to utilise Botafogo’s approach — the Brazilians beat a heavily-rotated PSG 1-0 in their second group-stage game — in sitting in more of a compact defensive block for long periods before selectively choosing moments to spring forward.
Chelsea’s aggressive, organised high pressing worked excellently in their semi-final victory over Fluminense, but the margins for error will be far narrower against a side of PSG’s quality — which leads us to the next point…
Chelsea need to be prepared to shuffle across when out of possession
PSG love to switch the ball from one side of the pitch to the other… a lot.
Again, they have played more games than nearly every other team in this tournament, but their 57 switches of play attempted is comfortably the most at this Club World Cup, and a clear tactical weapon they employ.
With the amount of possession they have, many of PSG’s switches are often made to circulate the ball during build-up, but when they are up against an organised defensive block, these long passes are very intentional within their attacking approach.
By having close combinations on one flank with triangles and diamonds, they will overload one side of the pitch to isolate a player on the other wing. It is a hallmark of an elite team, and Luis Enrique’s men execute it to perfection.
An example can be seen below in the round of 16 against Inter Miami, with Nuno Mendes making the switch to Barcola on the far side after combining on the left — with right-back Achraf Hakimi gesturing for his team-mate to play a pass over to the opposite flank.
With supporting runs from team-mates upon making the switch, it then allows PSG to expose the space that’s been opened up before crossing into a dangerous area.
A neat example can be seen in the semis against Madrid, with Kvaratskhelia switching to Hakimi. By the time the opposition have shuffled across, Dembele’s run makes it a two-v-one against exposed left-back Fran Garcia.
In what are expected to be scorching conditions at MetLife Stadium, Chelsea will need to stay compact defensively and be prepared to move across the pitch quickly to shut down any spaces that PSG will certainly look to exploit.
An integral role for both sides’ full-backs
Injuries and suspensions have been a factor at times during their Club World Cup campaign, but Maresca has not been shy in shuffling his pack when naming a starting XI — with 27 different Chelsea players taking to the field over their six games so far in the United States, the most of any side in the tournament.
A key decision the Italian has to make today is who he names as his No 9. Nicolas Jackson might have fallen down the pecking order since the end of the European season, but with Liam Delap back from suspension and fellow new signing Joao Pedro hitting the ground running in a Chelsea shirt, there is a selection dilemma that Maresca will be pleased to face.
Rotation: The key word of Chelsea’s long summer at the Club World Cup
Elsewhere, his choice of full-backs might be revealing in terms of where he wants his players to push onto the last line of attack. Throughout the tournament — and the 2024-25 season overall — Chelsea have varied their build-up shapes to influence their attacking rhythm.
For example, we know by now that Marc Cucurella can play as an auxiliary forward at times, with his inclination to arrive in the final third, meaning Reece James is often the one to tuck in from right-back to form Chelsea’s back-three build-up structure.
However, if Malo Gusto is named the team later, you would expect to see Cucurella tucking in as part of that build-up shape, while the 22-year-old France international pushes on to occupy Chelsea’s right half-space.
With the threat PSG pose in wide areas, Maresca will need to decide which full-back, if any, pushes forward into that attacking line.
Given PSG full-backs Hakimi and Mendes often occupy the half-spaces themselves, it might be likely that Chelsea are pinned back into a defensive structure for long periods anyway, but choosing which player has a higher starting position when the Londoners do have the ball will be interesting.
Will Chelsea dare to make this into a transitional game?
While Chelsea might be wise not to go pressing high against PSG’s fluid rotational build-up, they might have to make the most of any transitional moments when they do regain possession.
In an ideal world, Maresca would prefer Chelsea to engage in a considered, methodical approach when they have the ball. However, his side have been successful in springing forward at speed in this competition, and would be better served embracing a transitional game if the spaces open up for them today.
You only have to look as far as Joao Pedro’s second goal in the semi-final against Fluminense as an example of those moments, but no side has registered more direct attacks — a proxy of counter-attacking play — than Chelsea’s 19 across the competition. Their six goals from fast breaks are also double their nearest competitor.
If inspiration is needed, Bayern Munich might be a good case study in how to maximise those transitional sequences against PSG. In their quarter-final, it was purposeful, direct forward passing that led to the French side’s press being broken — as shown below, where Harry Kane’s sharp turn finds Kingsley Coman running through on goal.
If the final does open up, PSG have got the players who can exploit the space in transitional moments in the blink of an eye. Therefore, Chelsea will need to be similarly brave by throwing bodies forward when the opportunity arises — they have their own pace in wide areas that can be utilised in such moments when PSG’s attacks break down.
What can we expect the outcome to be?
Here, we can turn to The Athletic’s match prediction model.
This uses per-shot expected goals to create an attacking and defensive rating for each team, before employing a data model to simulate upcoming games.
Unsurprisingly, the model has Luis Enrique’s side as the overwhelming favourites, with a 64 per cent chance of victory before extra time, compared with just 16 per cent for Chelsea. Judging by this model, Chelsea have a greater chance of staying in the game and taking it to those additional 30 minutes — 19 per cent probability of a draw — than winning it outright in the regulation 90.
More specifically, The Athletic’s model predicts that a 2-1 PSG victory will be the most likely scoreline — but given their recent thumpings of Inter (5-0 in the Champions League final) and Madrid (4-0 in the semis here), the men from Paris have shown they are happy to tear up the script.
It promises to be a compelling tactical match-up, with one team leaving the United States with the coveted title of world champions.
(Top photos: Getty Images; design: Demetrius Robinson)
