Duke will be the overwhelming favorites to complement their ACC regular-season title with a conference tournament championship later this week as the 2025 ACC Men’s Basketball Tournament gets underway at Spectrum Center in Charlotte. The Blue Devils (28-3, 19-1 ACC) will play the winner of Virginia/Georgia Tech in the quarterfinals Thursday. The ‘Hoos finished at the halfway point in-conference (9th of 18) and are fortunate to not have to claw their way out of the first round. However, a win against the Yellow Jackets will yield an unfortunate matchup against Duke, who dominated Virginia en route to an 18-point win in Charlottesville.

Let’s take a look at the bracket for the ACC Tournament, discuss what’s at stake for a couple of the “bubble” teams within the ACC, and predict some scenarios following NC State’s miraculous run last year.

Speaking of NC State, the school has parted ways with head coach Kevin Keatts. After leading the Wolfpack to a Final Four last season, Keatts fell back to Earth with a third-to-last finish in the ACC and a 12-19 record overall. In eight years in Raleigh, he made three NCAA Tournaments and posted five 20-win seasons. However, it’s hard to justify a 25% win rate in one of the weakest years in conference history. Keatts’ firing will add another wrinkle to the carousel as Virginia looks to replace head coach Tony Bennett in the long term.

2025 ACC Men’s Basketball Tournament bracket. / Atlantic Coast Conference

I’m leaning with Pitt solely on account of their early-season form. The Panthers trounced West Virginia at home, bested Ohio State in Columbus, and competed with then-No. 19 Wisconsin on a neutral site. Three separate four-game losing streaks doomed Pitt’s chance of an at-large, however, and coach Jeff Capel’s crew has looked unrecognizable. They do not rebound the ball well and have suffered from off-nights from guards Jaland Lowe and Ish Leggett, both of whom determine the flow of Pitt’s offense. However, if they do find their groove, the Panthers can make a run in the ACC Tournament.

I can see No. 13 Pitt escaping a tricky No. 12 Notre Dame and then toppling No. 5 North Carolina in the second round. Capel’s team has matched up well with the Tar Heels this season, having won by eight in Pittsburgh and having dropped a heartbreaker by one in Chapel Hill. They’ll need as many valuable minutes as they can squeeze out of forward Zack Austin — a senior who has tallied 24 points and seven blocks against North Carolina in their two matchups.

I’m confident that Pittsburgh could exact revenge on Wake Forest in the quarterfinals. Of course, this would lead them to Duke, where the buck stops. Did anyone expect NC State to beat 1) Duke, 2) Virginia in the final 30 seconds, and 3) a top-five team in North Carolina, though? You cannot underestimate the magic of March.

The Pitt argument may be offset by the hunger of Wake Forest and North Carolina, two squads slipping from bubble consideration with few games remaining. The Tar Heels possess an abysmal 1-11 record in Quad 1 games (a metric used alongside NET rankings for tournament considerations) and have one win over a top-25 team — then-No. 18 UCLA. A loss in Charlotte to then-No. 7 Florida — tracking for a one seed — is devastating. Bubble forecasters and tournament metrics have given North Carolina a long, long leash.

Following a home loss to Duke, the Tar Heels can essentially earn an at-large bid only by defeating the Blue Devils in the ACC Semifinals. That assumes that they beat Notre Dame/Pittsburgh and Wake Forest. Moreover, would that win over Duke be enough to compensate for a potential loss in the ACC Championship? Barring an embarrassment, I think that they would get through.

Wake Forest has a history of squandering at-large opportunities late in the season. As with the Tar Heels, the Demon Deacons have to escape from the jaws of Duke to push for an at-large bid. Bracketologist Joe Lunardi has head coach Steve Forbes’s team as the sixth team out of the field in his most recent tournament projections; wins over North Carolina and Michigan cannot overshadow the losses to NC State, Virginia, and Florida State, two of which came at home. The Demon Deacons have the lofty task of vanquishing both the Tar Heels and Blue Devils.

Then, and only then, can they crawl back into the right side of the bubble. They would also presumably get through as an at-large if they avoided embarrassment in the championship.

One might argue that SMU has a path to an at-large, but the lack of a Duke in their side of the bracket prohibits a needle-moving win of that caliber. Beating Louisville and Clemson is the only path for the Mustangs, who could still be held back by their 6-4 record in Quad 2 games.

There are only a few ACC coaches who should leave the regular season feeling satisfied: Duke’s Jon Scheyer, Clemson’s Brad Brownell, Louisville’s Pat Kelsey, Stanford’s Kyle Smith, and arguably SMU’s Andy Enfield. No one expected Stanford to finish this high in the ACC following their offseason departures, and SMU didn’t exactly attract plenty of basketball attention when they announced their ACC move. Due to the down year of the conference, several coaches will have a make-or-break year in 2025-26. 

Pressure will fall the hardest upon Capel, Forbes, and Syracuse’s Adrian Autry. Georgia Tech and Boston College have had disappointing seasons, but it’s incredibly difficult to win consistently at those stops. Despite having received an extension keeping him in Chapel Hill until 2030, North Carolina’s Hubert Davis must make the NCAA Tournament next season. He needs to shell out their war chest to a big man in the portal.

The aforementioned Capel has broken through some sub-par seasons at Pittsburgh. He hasn’t replicated that same level of success that Jamie Dixon enjoyed while in the Big East, however, and Pitt’s collapse in conference play leaves plenty of questions as to whether Capel ought to be the long-term leader of this program. He has reached one NCAA Tournament in seven years and will need an automatic bid this season. 

A longtime assistant of Jim Boeheim at Syracuse, Adrian “Red” Autry started off his tenure with a respectable 20-12 (11-9 ACC) campaign last season. That momentum has stalled, as the Orange (13-18, 7-13 ACC) had to scrape and claw to make the ACC Tournament. A program as decorated and tradition-rich as Syracuse should expect consistent 20-win seasons; although they’ve landed Carmelo Anthony’s son — Kiyan, a four-star guard — ‘Cuse couldn’t win with a top-ten recruit in their starting five. Autry must navigate the portal more effectively than in this prior offseason. It’s time for Syracuse to recommit to hoops.

The aforementioned Forbes has improved from Danny Manning’s turbulent tenure at Wake Forest. However, when is the elusive NCAA Tournament berth coming? A 23-10 campaign wasn’t enough to send the Demon Deacons into the dance after a backbreaking loss to Boston College in the first round of the 2022 ACC Tournament. Wake Forest’s slip-ups late in the season have cost them and may very well cost them again. 

All are likely safe, but it’s tournament-or-bust next season.

No. 1 Duke defeats No. 2 Louisville in the ACC Championship, 81-74. The Cardinals keep pace with the Blue Devils for much of the contest and can hang their hats on a turnaround season — featuring an NCAA Tournament berth — under head coach Pat Kelsey.

Duke, Clemson, and Louisville receive bids to the Big Dance, the lowest number sent by the ACC since 2000 (3). 16.7% of the conference’s teams make the Tournament, which, although affected by the addition of three schools this offseason, would be the lowest % in ACC history.