2025 NHL playoff preview: Dallas Stars vs. Colorado Avalanche

By Sean Gentille, Dom Luszczyszyn and Shayna Goldman

The Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche felt like they were on a collision course for most of the season. And while it was up in the air for the briefest of moments in early April, it came through. Once again, we’re getting a conference final-caliber matchup in the first round.

We’ve got comeback potential, thanks to Miro Heiskanen and Gabriel Landeskog. We’ve got the highest of high-end talent, thanks to Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar. We’ve got interpersonal drama, thanks to Mikko Rantanen ultimately landing with one of his old team’s biggest rivals. No first-round series has more juice. Now we wait to see if it lives up to the billing.

The odds

If Heiskanen doesn’t play a single game in the first round, this series is a dead heat. That’s a scary thought for two powerhouse teams, both of whom have the pieces necessary to go the distance, but could just as likely be sent home early instead.

Early this week, though, the Stars got a lifeline with reports that Heiskanen is hopeful to return at some point in the series. Given his immense two-way value and the current state of Dallas’ blue line, that would be a massive boost — one that tilts the scales back toward the Stars.

Heiskanen has been ruled out for Game 1 already, and the above odds have him returning for Game 4. One game earlier and the Stars rise to a little over 56 percent; one game later and they drop to a little under 53 percent instead.

The margins are that tight here — enough that the number of games Heiskanen ends up playing could be the difference.

The numbers

With a plus-38 Offensive Rating, Dallas leads all 16 playoff teams. The Stars’ deep forward group fuels that. Dallas has three scoring lines and an elite rush-based attack. The team ranks seventh in expected goal generation at five-on-five and matches that pace on the scoresheet. The power play only amps up their scoring and has been on the rise since 4 Nations.

Few teams can match Colorado’s shot volume, but not all attempts are created equally. The Avs’ defenders attempt a lot of shots from further out, which explains the disparity between having the fourth-highest shot rate in the league and sitting 15th in expected goals.

Surprisingly, a power play with MacKinnon and Makar has had its ups and downs this year. The Avalanche have gotten back on track since 4 Nations, after concerning stretches in December and January, with the second-best scoring rate on the power play.

While the Stars have the offensive advantage on paper, the Avs have a slight edge in Defensive Rating — and an even larger one in whatever games Heiskanen misses. The Avalanche don’t give up many shots or quality chances, and after overhauling their goaltending situation earlier this season, they have support in net to back that up.

The Stars, on the other hand, trended in the wrong direction post-Heiskanen injury at five-on-five and on the penalty kill. A weak right side of the blue line is the driving force behind those defensive woes. Goaltending and goal-scoring have masked it since 4 Nations, but it could get exposed against a team with Colorado’s speed.

The big question

Can Mikko Rantanen be The Guy?

Anyone who’s watched MacKinnon play hockey knows he’s great. That isn’t a question. If you want another set of data points, though, consider this: Rantanen, a $12 million player who deserves every penny, has been mediocre — at times better, at times worse — without him.

And none of this is meant to demean Rantanen’s accomplishments for the Avs. Without him, there would’ve been no Stanley Cup run in 2022. There might not have been a Hart Trophy for MacKinnon last season. And who knows, maybe MacKinnon’s wallet would be a little lighter, too. But make no mistake: Someone was driving the bus on that line, and it wasn’t the guy currently playing in Dallas.

Over the last three seasons, MacKinnon and Rantanen played more than 2,500 minutes together at five-on-five. They were, of course, outstanding; with them on the ice, Colorado outscored opponents 159-108, a goal share of nearly 60 percent. In Rantanen’s 782:22 away from MacKinnon, that number dipped to about 43 percent. That holds true for virtually every other statistical category, too; expected goal share went from 55 percent to 42, and scoring chances from 59 percent to 45. MacKinnon, meanwhile, basically held steady on his own.

Of course, Colorado still thought enough of Rantanen to offer him something close to the deal he eventually signed with Dallas. There’s something to be said for knowing how to play with other elite talent, too. Colorado isn’t going to find a better running mate for MacKinnon. More economical? Perhaps. Time will tell on that one.

It’s also fair to say Rantanen’s post-MacKinnon career hasn’t gotten off to an ideal start. In Carolina, his underlying numbers were strong — he averaged more expected goals/60 at five-on-five (1.47) than he had in Colorado, and the Hurricanes as a team held an expected goal share with him on the ice of more than 62 percent. He couldn’t turn that into production, though, scoring just one five-on-five goal in 13 games. Less quantifiably, the fit didn’t seem like a good one. After a few weeks, it was over.

In Dallas, the script has flipped. Rantanen is producing at a better clip (about three points/60, thanks mainly to his work on the power play). Dallas is outscoring its opponents fairly dramatically with him on the ice at five-on-five, too (13-7) — but they’re decisively losing the territorial battle, with expected goal and shot shares stuck in the mid-40s.

That, of course, is a small sample size — and Heiskanen’s absence, to some degree, has thrown Dallas’ overall process into disarray. It’d be unfair to judge Rantanen too harshly when he’s played a grand total of zero minutes with Dallas’ best defensemen. It’d be unfair, too, to discount what’s been an outstanding career solely on a season in which he was traded twice.

What is fair, though, is to say that Rantanen is on the clock. And if he wants to change the narrative that’s begun to follow him, the time is now.

The X-factor

Can Gabriel Landeskog be a difference-maker after missing three whole seasons?

Last most of us saw of Landeskog, way back in the summer of 2022, he was taking a Stanley Cup handoff. Landeskog, the Avs captain then and now, had just completed a run as the defensive muscle on a line with MacKinnon and Rantanen. In 2022-23, he led all forwards in expected goals against while hitting a career high in scoring efficiency (59 points in 51 games). His projected ratings then: plus-12 Offensive Rating and a plus-1 Defensive Rating. That’s a big hole to fill.

Now, Landeskog is trying to make it all the way back from a nightmarish knee injury that necessitated a cartilage transplant and more than 1,000 days away from professional hockey. Earlier this month, he ticked a major box, starting a conditioning session with the team’s AHL affiliate. He felt good enough to play back-to-back games on April 11-12 and scored in the second leg. It’s not an exaggeration to say that whatever happens next will be one of the most compelling stories of the postseason.

To say we know what that entails would, of course, be dishonest; Landeskog is in uncharted waters. It’s worth noting, though, that the Avs don’t need him to turn the clock back to 2022. The top of their lineup is fine. What they could use, though, is a defensively reliable presence on the bottom six with some scoring pop. Also, a 10,000-watt emotional spark from one of the best leaders in the sport. Who’d turn that down?

The rosters

No team has a higher quantity of weapons than the Stars. Between the first, second and third lines, the top nine is absolutely loaded with potent offense. Their sheer volume of dangerous players has many picking the Stars as the team to beat this season.

Every forward in Dallas’ top nine is scoring two points per 60 or more at five-on-five. Because only 96 forwards are doing the same this season, that’s a first-line rate — and 10 percent of them are on the Stars. The next best playoff team, Washington, has six players scoring at that rate. The Avalanche, on the other side, have only three.

The Stars are operating at a different level with wave after wave of attack. Dallas has five forwards who grade out as top-line calibre, a feat matched only by Toronto, Tampa Bay and Vegas. Where the Stars excel is in their next group of guys adding another layer, which has allowed Dallas to spread the wealth in the top nine, creating immense offensive pressure that’s tough to contain.

Jason Robertson is the leader of that, and he’s surged back up toward elite status since being left off Team USA’s 4 Nations roster. Since that point, he has 30 goals and 66 points in 56 games. Only three players have scored more goals than him, and he’s dominated at five-on-five during that stretch. Rantanen may be the flashier name, but by pure impact, this is still Robertson’s team.

Well, up front, anyway. If any two players define the Stars, it’s their twin franchise defensemen: Heiskanen and Thomas Harley. Both are incredible attacking, defending and in transition. They’re the total package. Harley’s ascent this season has been a wonderful sight, and he finished the season sixth in Net Rating among defensemen. His work taking over Dallas’ top power play in Heiskanen’s absence was an eye-opener. The Stars’ top unit scored 14.3 goals per 60 with Harley compared to 4.8 per 60 with Heiskanen.

That knowledge should free up Heiskanen to focus more on defense, where he could form a terrific shutdown pair with Esa Lindell. When paired together this season, that duo has allowed just 2.35 xGA/60.

That’s when Heiskanen returns, of course. The Stars will have to survive without him first, and that’s a dicey proposition given what they showed in 32 games without him. During that time, the Stars were 23rd in expected goals percentage and 31st in xGA/60. Defensively, Dallas was a mess.

That’s not a surprise considering the extreme drop-off in talent after Lindell. No Heiskanen meant more Ilya Lyubushkin, Cody Ceci and Matt Dumba — all of whom hover around replacement level. At the very least, the Stars had Jake Oettinger to bail them out. He’s put up some great numbers this season, saving 25 goals above expected, a top-10 mark.

Oettinger has an equal counterpart on the other side, though, in Mackenzie Blackwood. Since being acquired from the San Jose Sharks, Blackwood has a .913 save percentage and has saved 18 goals above expected. The latter mark ranks seventh in the league during that time frame.

Blackwood will need to be sharp given how thin the defense looks. Colorado’s top pair of Makar and Devon Toews shoulders a lot of the burden and has dazzled once again, earning 61 percent of the goals. They’re a massive part of this team and a luxury as arguably the league’s best pair.

But the Avalanche do look vulnerable otherwise. Without one or both of Makar or Toews on the ice, the Avalanche have been outscored 86-78 this season. Considering Dallas’ deep stable of offensive weapons, Colorado’s defense can be exploited.

That’s perhaps also true up front, where the middle of Colorado’s lineup looks much improved after adding Brock Nelson and Charlie Coyle, but doesn’t quite stack up to what Dallas can boast.

Which leaves us with the main factor that makes this series even: Colorado has Nathan MacKinnon and the Stars do not. He is a trump card and will be the best player on the ice anytime he steps on it. While his 2024-25 season wasn’t as transcendent as his MVP-worthy campaign last year, MacKinnon was still dominant, scoring 116 points with strong possession numbers. When he’s on the ice with Makar, which happens often, it’s magic. It’s magic that the Stars will be hard-pressed to stop, especially without Chris Tanev around this time.

With Rantanen on the Stars, MacKinnon’s secondary weapons aren’t as strong as usual, though, which could be a point in Dallas’ favor. Martin Necas has fit well in Colorado’s system as a speedy puck transporter but doesn’t carry the same offensive punch. Ditto for Valeri Nichushkin and Artturi Lehkonen, two sturdy play-drivers whose production doesn’t quite stack up to Dallas’ best immediate weapons after Robertson. MacKinnon can certainly elevate the next players after him, but the talent gap is still noticeable.

Between MacKinnon and Makar, the Avalanche have the two best players in this series without question. With both players finishing top five in Net Rating this year, that’s a fact that would apply to any series that doesn’t include the Oilers.

But that’s ground Dallas can make up elsewhere, which is what turns this series into an epic clash. It’s a relatively even battle that slightly tilts toward Dallas, depending on how many games Heiskanen plays.

Both teams pride themselves on their potent offense and whichever pulls through here could go the distance. It’s the swiftly timed uppercut of Mackinnon plus Makar vs. the flurry of jabs from Dallas’ deep top nine. Who’s it gonna be?

The key matchup

Matt Duchene vs. Brock Nelson

This matchup isn’t hurting for top-line talent; MacKinnon ultimately gives Colorado the edge there, as we said, but it’s easy to imagine both teams’ top forward groupings playing to a draw.

If that indeed is the case, the series could well go to whichever team gets stronger work from its second line. Nelson and Duchene have posted similar overall Net Ratings this season; Duchene finishes with a narrow edge. They took different routes to get there, though.

Duchene is more volatile, posting big-time offensive numbers (including the third 30-goal season of his career) while giving away a fair bit defensively. Nelson, meanwhile, is more well-rounded but isn’t as much of a force on the attack. His five-on-five point production has dropped from 2.29 in New York to 1.37 with the Avs.

The bottom line

The Stars aren’t just a favorite in this series, they’re also a favorite to win the Stanley Cup. But the Avs’ star power and spite can’t be counted out here — not when Dallas has some holes to exploit.

One of the best in the West is going home after Round 1, and this series could go the distance to decide that.