Whether you think the Seahawks are contenders again, whether you think the roster is suddenly rejuvenated, whether you think Monday’s big news was the springboard for a division title and then some all depends on this question: Which Sam Darnold do you believe?
Days after shipping out quarterback Geno Smith and receiver DK Metcalf — both of whom had requested a trade — the Seahawks reportedly signed Darnold, considered the top QB on the free-agent market. It transformed what looked like a rebuild into an ostensible reboot with one transaction.
Darnold, after all, led the Vikings to a 14-3 record last season, finishing fifth in the NFL in passing yards (4,319), and sixth in passer rating (102.5) while earning a Pro Bowl nod and finishing 10th in the NFL MVP voting. You look at that and go, “That has to be an upgrade from Smith, who made the playoffs just once in three years as a starter with a 9-8 record in 2022, right?”
Well …
The Seahawks gave Darnold life-changing money with their three-year, $100.5 million contract that guarantees him $55 million, but the per-year average is lower than what they were willing to pay Smith. This seems like a steal given that A) Darnold outpaced Geno in virtually every efficiency category last season and B) the Seahawks still have tens of millions of dollars of salary-cap space to upgrade their roster.
But even with Smith’s middling record over the years — not to mention his turnover-prone 2024 — I’d argue he is still a more proven quarterback than Darnold. Sam, surrounded by immense receiving talent last year, has really had only one good season. To be more specific — 15 good games.
Pro-football-reference.com has a stat called “approximate value,” which serves as a data-based guess as to how productive a player was for his team. Bills quarterback Josh Allen, the reigning MVP, had an AV of 19 last season. Baker Mayfield’s was 17. Darnold’s was 14.
Darnold’s next-best AV for a given season? Seven. In his four years as a starter — three with the Jets and one with the Panthers — he finished 17-32 and just once had completion percentage above 60. He also threw 52 interceptions over those seasons against 54 touchdowns, a rather uninspiring ratio.
But when he got to Minnesota last year, he had Justin Jefferson (possibly the best receiver in football) two-time Pro Bowl tight end T.J. Hockenson and the young but dynamic Jordan Addison catching passes — not to mention former Pro Bowl running back Aaron Jones in the backfield. Suddenly he was a Pro Bowler himself.
What does he have in Seattle, though? Metcalf was dealt, and Tyler Lockett was released. Jaxon Smith-Njigba emerged as a standout wideout with his 1,130 receiving yards for the Seahawks last year, but he’s about 100 hash marks short of a player such as Jefferson. Can we really expect another Vikings-type season from Darnold?
And that season, by the way, wasn’t punctuated with an exclamation point. It was more like @#?&!. In the two games that mattered most, Darnold regressed. The regular-season finale vs. Detroit, where the winner earned the division title, No. 1 seed and first-round bye? Darnold was 18 for 41 with 166 yards and no touchdowns. The first-round playoff loss to the Rams? Darnold was 25 for 40 for 241 yards and one touchdown, one interception, one lost fumble and nine sacks.
He likely lost a lot of money over those last two games, which may have made him affordable to the Seahawks but might not necessarily fill fans with confidence.
Having said that, there was one prominent defender of Darnold last year — six-time Super Bowl-winning coach Bill Belichick, who said, “Everybody has liked Darnold except the Jets,” mentioning how the coaches in Carolina and Minnesota were rather fond of him. This could have just been a swipe at his former AFC East rival, but that man’s words carry weight.
We also don’t know what Seattle general manager John Schneider is going to do next. The Seahawks entered free agency with more than $60 million in cap space. They aren’t done yet, and have a draft in front of them.
Still, landing Darnold doesn’t feel like a fix so much as it feels like a risk. The Seahawks weren’t ready to blow this thing up yet, but any argument that they’ve gotten better feels weak. Or at least incomplete.
Sam Darnold proved a lot of doubters wrong in Minnesota last year. Congrats to him for that. Thing is, he’s going to have to do it in Seattle, too.
