Naessens’ prediction: Nick Pivetta’s home/road splits are glaring and he will struggle to successfully tame the Tigers’ bats for six complete innings, having us target the Under on his outs-recorded prop.
Phil Naessens • Betting Analyst
Apr 22, 2025 • 09:03 ET • 4 min read
The Detroit Tigers will look to make it two straight when they host the San Diego Padres in Game 2 of their three-game series.
San Diego righty Nick Pivetta has struggled away from home, and my Padres vs. Tigers predictions expect his road woes to continue tonight.
Read on for my MLB picks for Tuesday, April 22.
Padres vs Tigers prediction
My Padres vs Tigers best bet: Nick Pivetta Under 17.5 outs (+139 at Caesars)
San Diego Padres righty Nick Pivetta has gotten off to a strong start with his new club, going 3-1 with a 1.57 ERA and 24 strikeouts across 23 frames. Pivetta’s 0.83 WHIP is dreamy, but his xFIP is currently 3.11, and that typically means regression.
Pivetta’s stuff has fared well at Petco Park, but his offerings are getting slapped around the yard away from San Diego.
That’s been the case for much of Pivetta’s career. He’s pitched decently at home, but his 4.10 xFIP across 505+ career away innings suggests his road woes could continue tonight against the Detroit Tigers.
The Tigers offense is humming, scoring six or more runs in three of their last five at Comerica Park, and tuning up righties with a .326 wOBA and 111 wRC+.
Dating back to last season, Pivetta has failed to record 18+ outs in four of his previous five away starts.
The Tigers’ bats have been hot at home, are cracking righties, and I don’t expect Pivetta to finish the sixth.
Padres vs Tigers same-game parlay (SGP)
Nick Pivetta Under 6.5 strikeoutsFernando Tatis Jr. 2+ total bases
Tigers moneyline
Caesars doesn’t offer pitcher outs as an SGP option, so I’ve opted for Pivetta’s strikeout total as an alternate.
Pivetta averages about one strikeout per inning. The Tigers’ strikeout rate against righties is high (23%), but so is their walk rate (9.7%), and I don’t see the Padres right-hander pitching deep enough for seven whiffs.
Fernando Tatis Jr. has recorded 2+ total bases in half of his past 10 games and is batting .700 with four doubles and two home runs across 10 at-bats against Tigers starter Jack Flaherty.
Detroit has won four of five at Comerica, and has scored six or more in three of those five. The Padres are 4-6 straight up and have lost three of their previous four on the road.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Padres vs Tigers odds
Padres vs Tigers live odds
Padres vs Tigers opening odds
- Moneyline: San Diego -105 | Detroit -115
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-200) | Detroit -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)
Padres vs Tigers trend
The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.75 Units / 28% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Tigers.
How to watch Padres vs Tigers and game info
Location Comerica Park, Detroit, MI Date Tuesday, 4-22-2025 First pitch 6:40 p.m. ET TV SDPA, FanDuel Sporst Network Detroit Padres starting pitcher Nick Pivetta
(3-1, 1.57 ERA) Tigers starting pitcher Jack Flaherty
(1-1, 2.53 ERA)
Padres vs Tigers latest injuries
Padres vs Tigers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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