Nico Iamaleava is going back back, to Cali Cali. You know. In case you hadn’t heard.
Much like The Notorious B.I.G. (RIP), plenty will be said about Iamaleava’s every move going forward. Unlike the late Biggie Smalls, nobody is debating whether Iamaleava is the best on the planet at what he does. The messy exit from Tennessee to UCLA will reportedly earn him less money than the $2.4 million he would’ve been paid if he stayed in Knoxville, but that’s not really the biggest question now, nor is it whether he’ll earn UCLA’s starting job after Appalachian State transfer Joey Aguilar hit the portal on Monday and left to take Iamaleava’s place at Tennessee (what a time to be alive).
More relevant for Iamaleava’s future is the obvious question — can he become an elite quarterback at his new home?
There are a lot of ways to dissect that. “Elite” isn’t as simple as whether a player gets to New York. For what it’s worth, Iamaleava is just 75-to-1 to win the Heisman Trophy (on FanDuel). At this time a year ago, nobody would’ve thought that he’d be 31st in those preseason odds. Take that for what it is.
Becoming an elite signal-caller would be putting together an All-Big Ten season and leading UCLA to a multi-win improvement after a 5-7 Year 1 of the DeShaun Foster era. If Iamaleava is elite, he’ll elevate a roster that was very much in flux in 2024.
So let’s set some expectations for Iamaleava’s well-documented first season back in Cali:
He’s working with former Indiana OC/quarterbacks coach Tino Sunseri, who helped lead Kurtis Rourke and his torn ACL to a historic season in Bloomington. Despite how rough the Playoff game performance was, Rourke was indeed elite for the Hoosiers and their No. 2 scoring offense in FBS.
The former Ohio transfer was No. 2 in FBS with a 176.0 QB rating, and he did so for an IU offense that was No. 15 in FBS with 6.5 yards/play. On top of that, Rourke was tied for No. 27 in FBS with 44 completions of at least 20 yards. On throws that traveled at least 20 yards, Rourke was No. 10 among Power Conference quarterbacks with a 116.0 NFL QB rating (min. 30 such attempts). PFF had him with the No. 6 NFL QB rating under pressure (95.4), and he had 4 “Big Time Throws” in those spots.
Compare that to Iamaleava. PFF had 27 SEC quarterbacks register a Big Time Throw under pressure, and Iamaleava wasn’t one of them. His Tennessee backup, Gaston Moore, had 2. Iamaleava was also held to a 38% adjusted completion percentage (No. 86 in FBS) on throws that traveled at least 20 yards, and only 14.9% of his attempts traveled that far (No. 70 in FBS).
Yeah. That’s telling.
But again, it’s a positive that Iamaleava is working with someone like Sunseri, who might be in his first role with total offensive autonomy, but he also helped Jordan McCloud finish top 10 in FBS in QB rating as the quarterbacks coach at James Madison in 2023. Todd Centeio also had the No. 4 QB rating in FBS while working with Sunseri in 2022.
Iamaleava’s biggest strength with his new surroundings is Sunseri. He’s working with someone who’s believed to be one of the rising offensive minds in the sport, even as a new full-time play-caller. As much heat as the Iamaleava family rightfully took for claiming that it was the offense — and not the money — that led to the exit from Knoxville, he wound up with someone who helped maximize the strengths of new quarterbacks on a yearly basis. That’s huge for another obvious reason.
The post-spring expectations are low to begin with
I’m gonna go out on a limb and say that Sunseri’s offense won’t be confused with the Josh Heupel offense. Sure, it might feature tempo with the occasional wide splits, but the Heupel offense is unique. There will be more pro-style reads from Iamaleava at UCLA. That’s going to be an adjustment. A significant adjustment.
There are guys from less-unique offenses who struggled as quarterback transfers who didn’t arrive until after spring ball. We know how decorated Joe Burrow and Will Levis became as 2-year transfers who proved to be best-case scenarios, but as post-spring arrivals, they struggled in the first half of the season with a limited offense. Again, that’s the best-case scenario.
More common examples are guys like 2023 Payton Thorne or 2021 Joe Milton, who later ended up starting ahead of Iamaleava during his freshman season while he learned the concepts of the up-tempo offense. If Iamaleava had looked the part from the jump at Tennessee, he would’ve pushed Milton when he struggled in 2023.
Two years removed from that, it’s fair to wonder if Iamaleava can command another offense after UCLA lost 4 of its top 5 finishers in receiving yards. It’s not exactly a group that’s loaded with a bunch of proven veterans. That was expected to be the case last year at Tennessee, but the Vols receivers never took off in the way they were expected to.
Iamaleava’s ability to get on the same page as his new pass-catchers will be a massive challenge. That alone should keep expectations low.
I’d fully expect Iamaleava to rely more on his legs at UCLA than he did at Tennessee. Whether he’s built to handle the physical toll of that against Big Ten defenses remains to be seen.
Vegas is telling us that missing bowl eligibility again is the most likely outcome for UCLA, even with Iamaleava on board. Maybe that’s because of a schedule that includes 4 games vs. teams with at least 11 wins last year. That’s not including road trips to Northwestern and Michigan State or the final 2 games of the regular season against Washington and USC, both of whom beat the Bruins in that matchup in 2024.
Iamaleava getting the help he got from Tennessee’s defense seems unlikely — the Vols went 2-1 in a 3-game stretch in which they didn’t have a first-half point — and unless a massive breakout season is in store, UCLA won’t have a backfield weapon like SEC Offensive Player of the Year Dylan Sampson for Iamaleava to turn to. Even if Iamaleava improves later in the season, it’s hard to envision a scenario in which he’s leading some 8-4 UCLA squad.
Far more likely is something much more daunting.
That’ll be because Foster will lead another bowl-less season and he’ll be fired after 2 seasons as Chip Kelly’s successor. That would likely mean another new start for Iamaleava.
At this time next year, my guess is that Iamaleava will be someone who weighs his NFL Draft options, but he ultimately opts to join team No. 3 after an up-and-down 2025. Maybe he’s a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten starter who posts a 20-10 TD-INT ratio but struggles in colder-weather games. Do I think he’ll be a failure? I don’t. He’s just entering a situation that’s got an incredibly steep climb that awaits him. Iamaleava will have moments in which we’re reminded why he was such a decorated recruit. Watch him pull a 2024 and make highlight-reel plays early on that have everyone thinking “Heisman” (but maybe not as many against Utah in the opener).
But I don’t envision Iamaleava going to UCLA and becoming a solid, multi-year starter who wins the breakup with Tennessee. The Vols might not blow anyone away with Iamaleava’s successor, either. There could be more offensive frustration in store than we’ve seen in the Heupel era.
The takeaway will be obvious by season’s end — both Iamaleava and Tennessee would’ve been much better together than apart.
