Game Time: 7 p.m.
Location: Spectrum Center: Charlotte, N.C.
Television: ESPN2
Announcers: Kevin Brown (play-by-play) and Jon Crispin (analysis)
Favorite: Louisville by 10.5
Series: Louisville leads, 3-0
Last Meeting: Louisville won 68-48 on March 8 in Louisville
Series History (entering the season):
Projected Starting Lineups:
Louisville
- G Chucky Hepburn (6-2, 190, Sr.)
- G Reyne Smith (6-2, 190, Sr.)
- G J’Vonne Hadley (6-6, 215, Sr.)
- G/F Terrence Edwards Jr. (6-6, 205, Sr.)
- C James Scott (6-11, 220, So.)
Stanford
- G Jaylen Blakes (6-2, 205, Sr.)
- G Ryan Agarwal (6-6, 190, So.)
- G Oziyah Sellers (6-5, 185, Jr.)
- F Aidan Cammann (6-10, 220, Fr.)
- C Maxime Raynaud (7-1, 250, Sr.)
Statistics:
Stanford’s Season to Date:
Relevant Videos:
About Stanford:
Well, it’s been like five days since the last time we did this. But just in case you needed a refresher course …
Picked to finish 17th in the ACC’s preseason media poll, Stanford has overachieved in its first season as a member of the conference and now finds itself as one of the final six teams standing in the league’s postseason tournament. The Cardinal gritted out a 78-73 win over longtime rival and 15th-seeded California on Wednesday.
It’s been a tale of two parts of the country for Stanford this season.
At home on the West Coast, the Cardinal were terrific. Stanford went 16-2 inside Maples Arena this season, including 9-1 in the ACC.
Away from home, things have been less stellar. The Cardinal are 4-10 in games away from home after yesterday’s win, 2-8 in true ACC road games, and 2-9 in games played outside the state of California. Before Wednesday, their lone win East of the Mississippi this season was back on Jan. 18 at North Carolina.
The other story of Stanford’s season is more straightforward: Maxime Raynaud has established himself as one of the best players in the ACC and a surefire NBA Draft pick. He earned First Team All-ACC honors earlier this week, and finished second to Cooper Flagg in the ACC Player of the Year voting.
The 7’1 native of Paris ranks second in the ACC in scoring 20.2 ppg (15th nationally) and leads the league in rebounding at 10.8 rpg (5th nationally). Raynaud currently ranks 14th in program history in scoring and fifth all-time in rebounding as one of four players in Stanford history to reach at least 1,500 career points and 900 career rebounds. He is 10 rebounds away from tying the program’s single-season record, currently held by Adam Keefe (1991-92).
Raynaud leads the nation with 23 double-doubles, his most recent of which came last Saturday (17 and 11) inside the KFC yum Center. Raynaud is just the fifth major conference player to have at least 22 double-doubles in a season over the past five years, joining Zach Edey (Purdue, 2x), Joel Soriano (St. John’s), Oscar Tshiebwe (Kentucky, 2x) and Armando Bacot (North Carolina).
He is very, very good, but you know this.
Raynaud has great touch around the rim for someone his size, and is a legitimate pick-and-pop threat, hitting the three at a 33.8 percent clip. He’s not a terrific passer and Louisville will almost certainly dig when he catches the ball in the post after forcing him into five turnovers in the first meeting. Defensively, he’s not known as an elite shot-blocker, but he looked pretty damn good at it against the Cards, swatting three shots, altering a handful of others, and ultimately making U of L adjust its offensive game plan.
Outside of Raynaud, Stanford has a better of double figure scorers in guards Oziyah Sellers (13.3 ppg) and Jaylen Blakes (13.2 ppg). Sellers is the better shooter of the two, but is pretty selective when it comes to taking outside shots. Both are more comfortable getting downhill and trying to score at the rim or getting to the free-throw line. Neither had much success in the first game against Louisville.
Although they had an off-night against the Cards, shooting free-throws is what Stanford does best. The Cardinal are hitting their freebies at a collective 78.7 percent, the 17th-best mark in the country. Defending aggressively without fouling will once again be one of the biggest keys to success for U of L.
Defensively, Stanford is ok. They do one thing exceptionally well (defensive rebound) and one thing exceptionally poorly (foul a ton). The Cardinal have tried to force their opponents off the three-point line all season long, something they did pretty well against Louisville in the first meeting. If the Cards get Reyne Smith back in the lineup for this one, they should be more difficult for Stanford to defend.
Stanford doesn’t have the size or athleticism to keep Louisville’s best offensive players from getting where they want to go. Chucky Hepburn got into the lane at will in the first meeting, but was effectively challenged at the rim and didn’t get the foul calls he thought he deserved. Both he and Edwards ended up taking more short jumper (not going to call them mid-range) deep into the second half and had success that route. I know it goes against Kelsey’s overall philosophy, but I wonder if he might have his guards exploit that soft area of the Cardinal defense again tonight, especially if Reyne isn’t available.
Notable:
—Louisville is 3-8 all-time in the ACC tournament, and has never won multiple games in the same tournament or advanced past the tournament’s quarterfinal round.
—This will be Louisville’s first time playing in an ACC tournament quarterfinal game since 2019. The Cardinals were scheduled to play in the 2020 quarterfinals on the day that tournament was canceled.
—Louisville is 0-4 all-time in ACC tournament quarterfinal games.
—Louisville’s 11-year drought of not playing in a conference tournament semifinal is the 8th-longest among power conference teams.
—Since joining Conference USA in 1995-96, Louisville is 17-10 in its first conference tournament game across C-USA, the Big East, the American and the ACC.
—Stanford will be the first opponent Louisville has played in back-to-back games since beating Memphis State 64-62 and 71-68 on March 6 and 12, 1983.
—Louisville is 85-23 all-time against teams it beat by 20 or more points earlier in the season.
—Stanford center Maxime Raynaud ranks first in the ACC in rebounding and second in scoring. His 23 double-doubles are the most of any player in college basketball.
—Stanford is on track to break two single-season program records as a team in free throw percentage and turnovers per game. Stanford is currently shooting 78.7 percent from the stripe as a team, which would best the current program record of 76.3 percent, set by the 2005-06 team, and be just the fourth Cardinal program to shoot better than 75 percent as a unit. Stanford is also giving up only 10.6 turnovers per night, its lowest mark on record. The previous record is 10.8 per game, accomplished by the 2014-15 team.
—Louisville’s 18 conference wins this season are the most in program history.
—Louisville lost just one game combined over the months of January and February for only the fourth time in program history.
—Louisville’s 9-game winning streak is the second longest among power conference teams, trailing Houston by one.
—Louisville’s 9-game winning streak is the 7th-longest in Division-I.
—Despite its lack of success in the ACC, Louisville has now made it to at least the quarterfinals in 10 of the last 14 conference tournaments it has participated in.
—Reyne Smith is third in the country in made three-pointers per game (3.53) and ninth in total made three-pointers (106). He is 17 made three-pointers away from breaking Louisville’s single-season record.
—Chucky Hepburn is eighth in the country in total steals (68), ninth in steals per game (2.43), 24th in total assists (176) and 25th in assists per game (5.9).
—James Scott is third in the country and first in the ACC in dunks with 71.
—Louisville’s 15 conference wins by double-digits are tied with Duke for the most in the country.
—Stanford is 1-0 all-time in ACC tournament games.
—Louisville is in the AP poll this week for the 662nd time in program history, the sixth-most of any program in the sport.
—In college basketball history, a team has never lost its first conference tournament game and gone on to win the NCAA tournament.
—Louisville has won four of the last 14 conference tournaments it has competed in.
—Louisville is 14-0 over the past 10 seasons when limiting opponents to no more than one three-point field goal.
—Louisville has led at halftime in 21 consecutive conference games.
—Louisville is 115-0 all-time when scoring 100 or more points in non-overtime games.
—Louisville has won 164 consecutive games when holding an opponent under 50 points.
Ken Pomeroy Prediction: Louisville 77, Stanford 68