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Alex Ovechkin made history on Sunday by breaking Wayne Gretzky’s all-time scoring record, and it will likely be a while before anyone else even sniffs the record. It will take a lot of work, plus some good fortune, but a handful of stars could be nipping at Ovechkin’s heels over the next decade.
The three active players closest to Ovechkin are Sidney Crosby (619 goals), Steven Stamkos (579) and Evgeni Malkin (513). The youngest of that trio is Stamkos at 35 years old, and he needs 315 goals just to match Gretzky’s 894. That means he would need over 50 goals per season for the next six seasons just to get within striking distance.
Not to doubt those three future Hall of Famers, but time is no longer on their side, and it would be incredibly shocking to see any of them hit goal No. 895. That only underscores how impressive Ovechkin’s career has been.
Instead, we’re going to look at five players under the age of 30 who have already shown the scoring prowess necessary to reach the same heights as Ovechkin and Gretzky. Auston Matthews, Leon Drasaitl, Connor McDavid, David Pastrnak and Nathan MacKinnon all have at least an outside shot to approach 900 goals if things break just right for them.
Let’s take a deeper look at where each player sits in his pursuit of Gretzky and Ovechkin, as well as what he needs to do over the next decade to achieve NHL history.
Leon Draisaitl | 399 goals
Few elite scorers have been as consistent as Draisaitl over the last handful of years. He’s made hitting 40 goals look easy, and he’s now hit 50 goals in four of the last seven seasons. As a strong forward who can play a power or a skill game, Draisaitl has versatility on his side. The other thing he has is a magic touch on the power play. Draisaitl has set up shop just above the goal line and perfected what used to be a bad-angle shot. That will give him longevity because, even as he ages, Draisaitl should still be able to put up gaudy goal totals on the man advantage.
In a decade: Assuming Draisaitl remains healthy for a full 82 games in each of the next 10 seasons, which is how we’ll project each player, he would have roughly 815 career goals at his current pace. That’s still 80 goals off the new goals record, so he would need a couple more big seasons after that. Averaging 41 goals per year into his early-40s will be challenging, but Draisaitl has the skill to make a run at it, especially if he has McDavid feeding him the whole time.
Auston Matthews | 397 goals
Of all the players on this list, Matthews has the best chance to catch Gretzky and Ovechkin. Matthews has already proven to be the best scorer of his generation, and his career goals pace is higher than Ovechkin. Matthews fell one goal shy of 70 in 2023-24, and if he can replicate that effort a couple more times, he’ll be in great shape to challenge the new record.
In a decade: If Matthews continues to score at his current pace, he’ll have passed Ovechkin’s current mark with 920 goals. The Maple Leafs star will only be 37 at the time, so he’ll have a few more years before he hits 40. The question here, as is the case with every player, is whether Matthews’ body will hold up long enough for him to continue his torrid pace. Given his natural skill and proven track record, health might be one of the few things standing between Matthews and 900 goals.
David Pastrnak | 385 goals
Pastrnak may fly under the radar compared to some of the other players on this list, but his career pace is the second-highest on this list. Although, Leon Drasaitl has hit another gear in recent history. Perhaps the most encouraging thing about Pastrnak is that he hit 61 goals in 2022-23, so we know he has the capability to put up an eye-popping number here and there, which is what it will take to reach the goals record.
In a decade: Pastrnak, at his current pace, would have around 807 career goals. That’s an impressive number, but it wouldn’t put him anywhere near the 900-mark. If Pastrnak is going to make a real run at this, he’ll need more seasons closer to 61 goals than 40 goals.
Nathan MacKinnon | 366 goals
MacKinnon clearly doesn’t have the career pace to catch Gretzky or Ovechkin before his career is done, at least not yet. If MacKinnon wanted to put more of an emphasis on scoring goals, he could probably take that area of his game up a couple notches. He did just that last season with 55 tallies en route to the Hart Trophy. The issue here might be that MacKinnon is too far behind the 8 ball with a lack of spike seasons in the goals department.
In a decade: MacKinnon would still be a long way off at 713 goals. That makes him the longest shot on this list, but again, he deserves consideration because he simply plays the game at a different speed than almost anyone else. MacKinnon has shown he can hit the 50-goal mark. He just needs to do it a handful more times to approach the greatest scorers in hockey history.
Connor McDavid | 361 goals
McDavid is the best all-round player in the game right now, and I don’t think there’s much room for debate there. Will he become the greatest scorer of all-time? I don’t think so, but it would be foolish to rule it out right now. McDavid is an elite playmaker, and that’s an essential part of his game. If McDavid just wanted to be a bit more selfish, he could really post some huge numbers. Look no further than his 64-goal season in 2022-23, or his 15.1% career shooting percentage, which is less than a point behind Matthews.
In a decade: McDavid would be sitting on 781 goals. Again, that pace has to increase in order for him to catch Ovechkin and Gretzky, but I think he has it in him. Frankly, it’s just a matter of will. If McDavid wants — or is forced — to become more of a shooter then the chase will be on.
