Along with her head-to-head edge, Sabalenka is also in better form. She’s 19-4 on the year, while Collins, who announced and rescinded her retirement in 2024, is just 5-3.

But there is hope for the American, for three reasons. (1) In half of her losses to Sabalenka, her game has worked well enough to win her a set; (2) Collins is the defending champion in Miami, so the courts suit her and the fans will be behind her; and (3) While Sabalenka is the WTA’s No. 1 player, she has still has a habit, on occasion, of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Winner: Sabalenka—Steve Tignor

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