Borussia Dortmund against Barcelona at the Westfalenstadion should be one of the occasions of the season.
As it is, their Champions League tie was likely decided in the first leg when Dortmund slumped to a 4-0 defeat that, most likely, will render the power of their home stadium obsolete.
On Wednesday, they will almost certainly wake up out of the Champions League. Six points off fourth place in the Bundesliga with five games left, it is not certain when they might return.
If they do fail to re-qualify, it would be for the first time since 2015-16 and for a club with the second-highest wage spend in Germany, that is significant underperformance. Miracle or no miracle against Barcelona, it demands a proper response, with the team and Niko Kovac, the head coach, the obvious place to start.
Kovac inherited a difficult situation. When he was appointed to replace Nuri Sahin, his tactical approach — which leans on rigid defending, quick transitions, and high work rate — was seen as opposite to what Dortmund stood for. After all, part of Sahin’s brief when appointed was to restore the front-foot, full-throttle identity that had been lost from the club’s playing style.
Has the change of course worked? At times.
Kovac arrived at the end of the winter transfer window and since then, the fixtures have come fast and time on the training ground has been limited. Predictably, his effect has been intermittent. At times, Dortmund have been tougher and more resilient. The wins over Mainz and Freiburg were excellent and the weekend’s 2-2 draw against Bayern Munich was encouraging.
A lapse has never been too far away, though, as shown by the awful 1-0 home defeat by Augsburg at the beginning of March and, of course, the first leg of the Barcelona tie.
There is no single reason for those fluctuations. Most likely, they are the combination of too little time having passed, a muddled squad, and a tension between the kind of football Kovac coaches and that of which the incumbent players are capable.
There was a good example in his selection for the first Barcelona game. Kovac picked Karim Adeyemi to play in front of left-back Ramy Bensebaini, switching Jamie Gittens to his less familiar right side. The thinking was that Gittens’ speed would be valuable on the break but that, at present, the defensive side of his game was not good enough to protect Bensebaini from Lamine Yamal.
The theory was fine. The execution was not. Gittens — jaded and badly out of form — made little impression. Adeyemi picked up a yellow card early and was subbed at half-time to prevent a sending-off. And, often left one-on-one, Bensebaini was helpless against the threat of Yamal.
On one hand, the breakdown of that strategy was foreseeable. On the other, there were few better options available. Clearly, this Dortmund squad must become more strategically agile.
Individually, there all sorts of decisions to make, too — both to find that depth, but also to provide the direction that is missing. The first step will be to make a series of decisions regarding player futures once the season ends.
Julian Brandt is deep in a pit of form to suggest that, after six years in Dortmund, a fresh start might be in everyone’s interests. One of the criticisms of Kovac has been regarding his handling of Brandt, whom he initially — wrongly — publicly claimed was on the same level as Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala.
Now, the charge is that Kovac is too reluctant to bench a player who was anonymous in Barcelona and, following two costly turnovers, a liability in Munich.
Gittens will almost certainly leave in the summer. Marcel Sabitzer is a divisive dressing-room figure and is also likely to move. There will also be a market for Adeyemi, who remains a capricious, unpredictable player. Yan Couto’s €30million (£25.3m; $32.6m) move from Manchester City has not been successful and his position at the club needs evaluating — especially without incoming Champions League revenue and the desire to make Carney Chukwuemeka’s loan move from Chelsea permanent.
So, players will need to leave and the club will need to recruit well. But that process will need to be led by a determination about what contemporary Dortmund are. What do they stand for on the pitch? What is their place in the game?
Playing identity matters for supporters, certainly, giving them a tangible grasp of where their team is headed. But it’s more than that. In fact, it could be argued to be of paramount importance and fundamental to how the club operates.
It’s interesting to compare the perception of Dortmund with the reality. Outside Germany, it remains much as it was 10 years ago. They are still the team that buys low, sells high, and serves as a finishing school for top-tier talent. In reality, that is out of date.
Since the 2017-18 season, when Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Ousmane Dembele were sold to Arsenal and Barcelona respectively, only four players — Jadon Sancho, Erling Haaland, Jude Bellingham and Abdou Diallo — have departed for €30million or more. Of greater worry is that other German clubs now have greater claim to what, in recruiting terms, used to be the club’s unique selling point.
Since 2018, Eintracht Frankfurt have sold Sebastien Haller, Luka Jovic, Jesper Lindstrom, Randal Kolo Muani, Willian Pacho and Omar Marmoush for €30m or more. And just during the past 18 months, RB Leipzig have collected €30m or above for Dani Olmo, Josko Gvardiol, Christopher Nkunku, Dominik Szoboszlai and Mohamed Simakan, with big fees probably due this summer for Benjamin Sesko and Castello Lukeba as well.
There are several theories as to why Dortmund could have lost that place in the food chain.
Over the past decade, Frankfurt and Leipzig have both become wealthier and more prominent than they were — Leipzig especially so and with the benefit of their supporting network. In addition, with the growth in data availability and usage, scouting has become more egalitarian, meaning that advantages that once existed no longer do. Many clubs are now really good at identifying talent and there is lots of competition to be a player’s final step before reaching the sport’s summit.
But a former Bundesliga executive, who has been granted anonymity to protect relationships, tells The Athletic that for most clubs in Dortmund’s position, another big issue is reputation.
“When a player has the option to join, he wants to know what will happen next. Where will he be sold to, will the club get in his way when it’s time to leave, and how will you help him to develop?”
“Let’s say that (Hugo) Ekitike leaves Frankfurt this summer and moves to the Premier League. The club’s pitch to his replacement can talk about Kolo Muani moving to Paris (Saint-Germain) with a year of arriving or Marmoush leaving for England after 18 months. It’s like an advert.”
Viewed from that perspective, it’s difficult to know where Dortmund’s next case study will come from. Gittens will command a big fee and Felix Nmecha will be in demand in the coming years, as will Nico Schlotterbeck once he has recovered from his knee injury. But there is little beyond that — few players who will help kickstart the virtuous cycle. The lack of tactical certainty seems complicit, too.
“Of course, playing identity is important,” says a Premier League scout, speaking broadly and without specific reference to Dortmund.
“From my perspective, I know what kind of players my club wants. We divide the pitch into nine different roles, but our way of playing is also non-negotiable. I know what a player I’m scouting needs to be able to do in this phase and this one and this one. But, for the player, that means that anyone I bring into the club knows what’s expected of them and it doesn’t really matter who the coach is.
“It can also help that player map his future. He knows he can become a certain type of full-back or winger at my club.”
While it’s difficult to weight these different factors, it’s clear that such stability is conducive to attracting and evolving players. It’s also apparent that Dortmund do not currently have a consistent way of playing.
Do they want to be a counter-puncher or a possession side? Do they want to control the rhythm of games or disrupt that temperament?
At different times over the past three seasons, they have been all of those things, with the effect that beyond its principle tenets — their Westfalenstadion, their black and yellow colours, and their home city — the club’s brand has become increasingly vague, with the cost showing in more than just the week-to-week form.
(Top photo: David Ramos/Getty Images)
