Sen. Dick Durbin’s decision to not run for reelection has local Democrats salivating to take his seat, but don’t count out Republicans.
The big picture: Durbin served nearly 30 years in the Senate, but the high-ranking national figure didn’t face much reelection opposition.
- Durbin beat Republican challengers Mark Curran, Jim Oberweis, Steve Sauerberg, Jim Durkin and Al Salvi during his Senate tenure. None of those challengers had ever held major office.
Yes, but: The 2026 landscape will be different. The lack of an incumbent could open the door for a much more competitive race, especially if Republicans find the right candidate.
What they’re saying: “The GOP needs to banish the perennial Dick Uihlein-funded campaign consultants who repeatedly spend millions promoting candidates that have no chance of winning a general election,” former Illinois GOP chair Pat Brady tells Axios. “That would be a good first step.”
- In the last few statewide election cycles, major donors have backed more conservative MAGA candidates, who have won GOP primaries but were walloped in the general elections.
Some intriguing names could include Rep. Mary Miller, Rep. Darin LaHood and even former Rep. Adam Kinzinger.
- “Senator Durbin’s retirement was long overdue,” Jake Ford, LaHood’s campaign spokesperson, said in a statement. “Voters are tired of out-of-touch liberal policies that have failed working families, and prioritized illegal immigrants and far-left ideological agendas over hard working American taxpayers.”
By the numbers: The 2024 election netted some positive traction for Republicans. Several collar counties showed better results for President Trump than in 2020 and 2016.
- But the most recent municipal election saw many of those gains rolled back, as Republican mayors were trounced at the polls.
Flashback: Illinois is considered a blue state, but it hasn’t been that long since Illinois Republicans controlled a Senate seat. Sen. Mark Kirk held office from 2010 to 2016 before losing to now-Sen. Tammy Duckworth.
- Duckworth pulled almost 55% of the vote in that election.
Reality check: The Democrats are very organized, thanks in part to Gov. JB Pritzker taking a larger role in the state Democratic Party, including fundraising for candidates.
Between the lines: For Democrats, it’s all about the endorsement. Several prominent politicians, ranging from former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel to Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton to Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, have signaled they want the job, but it will be Durbin’s endorsement that will determine poll position.
- In 1996, then-Sen. Paul Simon elevated the relatively unknown downstate congressman by endorsing him as his replacement. It paved the way for Durbin to become the front-runner and never look back.
What’s next: Several candidates are expected to formally announce their campaigns soon. There is no timetable for Durbin to decide who to endorse.
The bottom line: If Republicans have their way, it won’t matter who Durbin chooses. Instead, it will be up to the voters.
