Alabama will try to advance to its second straight Final Four for the first time in school history when it takes on top-seeded Duke in the East Regional Final on Saturday night at Prudential Center.
The Crimson Tide set an NCAA Tournament record by making 25 three pointers in their 113-88 win over BYU in the Sweet 16. Alabama leads the nation in scoring (91.4 per game) and is averaging 94.3 points per game in the NCAA Tournament.
But they will have to score efficiently again to knock off the nation’s No. 1 team. The Blue Devils are also scoring 94 points per game in the tournament after their hyper-efficient 100-93 win over Arizona in the late regional semifinal Thursday.
Duke vs. Alabama predictions and best bets
- Duke moneyline (-295) at BetMGM
- Duke -6.5 (-112) at DraftKings
- Over 172.5 (-112) at FanDuel
Some sportsbooks have the Blue Devils as a seven-point favorite, which seems right even though 32 of their 34 wins this season have come by three-plus possessions.
The total seems astronomically high for a college game — the Purdue vs Houston Sweet 16 game had an Over/Under of 133.5 — but these are two of the best offensive teams in the nation, and each topped 100 in its last game.
Duke vs. Alabama moneyline analysis
If Alabama shoots the way it did against BYU on Thursday, there’s not a team in the nation that could beat it. But the Blue Devils are hyper-talented, led by superstar freshman Cooper Flagg, but are also deep, with a nine-man rotation of contributors.
Of course, Mark Sears and tandem guard Mark Holloway are going to score. Sears has the fourth-shortest odds to win tournament Most Outstanding Player (+1400) via FanDuel, and he leads the Crimson Tide’s six players who average double-figure scoring.
It’s just whether the Crimson Tide, who rank 356th in the nation in points-against per game (81.2), can get enough stops to pull off the upset.
Why Duke could win as the favorite
Best odds: -295 at BetMGM
Because the Blue Devils can score and play defense. Duke may have allowed 93 to Caleb Love and Arizona on Thursday night, but that was the first time it had surrendered even 80-plus points all year, and it took a superhuman effort from Love (35 points) to even get there.
Flagg gets most of the flowers for Duke, but that undersells Kon Knueppel, Sion James, and Tyrese Proctor’s impact.
The Blue Devils got to 100 on Thursday — mainly due to their 23-for-27 effort at the foul line — but Proctor only had seven points. Proctor was Duke’s third-leading scorer, and it seems like there’s still another gear for its offense to get to.
Why Alabama could win as the underdog
Best odds: +250 at DraftKings
If it puts up another record-setting performance. It isn’t every day a team allows 88 points and wins by 25, and it’s safe to say if the Crimson Tide surrender that many again, they won’t be victorious Saturday.
That’s not to say Alabama can’t get to 90 again since it clearly is OK with the rims in Newark after shooting 49% from 3-point range Thursday night.
But it’s hard to envision a scenario where Alabama scores that efficiently again, and even if it does, it probably still doesn’t have the horses to keep up with Flagg and the Blue Devils.
