It’s time, fellow Floridians, to worry once again about what Gov. Ron DeSantis might be up to. And this time, there’s a lot to worry about. DeSantis has lately been musing about the idea of killing (or at least sharply cutting) the property tax that helps support public schools, local police and fire protection, public parks and myriad other services that Floridians expect from their local government.
We’re not entirely sure the governor is serious about this. He’s shown a strong tendency to treat Florida’s governmental structure like his personal set of Lincoln logs — his to play with, give away, hurl across the room or set on fire as he pleases. He’s undermined the judiciary, commandeered the Legislature and at times proved utterly contemptuous of Floridians’ needs and priorities. And he’s a master of the art of propaganda, setting off bombs in one corner of the room (Look! Drag queens! Scary immigrants! Woke professors!) to distract from unrelated machinations that suppress voters’ voices and drain billions from the state budget into the pockets of billionaires and megacorporations
This latest proposal — to drop property taxes and replace that revenue with additional sales tax, a move that could double the sales-tax levy to 12% — might be his biggest boondoggle yet. This would be a giant, tumultuous change, at a time when an unstable economy will make it nearly impossible to predict exactly what might happen as a result. And Floridians know all to well that DeSantis often moves to ram changes through before anyone can understand what’s going on. But a few things are immediately clear.
A tax swap would be a seismic shift in the way government is funded. A hasty but well-sourced study by the Florida Policy Institute suggests that cutting property taxes would leave a $43 billion hole in revenue that mostly flows to cities, counties and school districts. Doubling the current 6% sales tax rate would produce about $40.2 billion, based on current economic conditions, FPI found. The rest would probably have to be made up by repealing sales-tax exemptions and patching other holes in the state’s revenue stream. In the worst-case scenario, this could force Florida to start charging tax on “life essentials” such as food, medicine, and rent, along with services like health care and legal bills.
Abandoning property taxes could hit homeowners harder. The new calculation could even levy sales taxes on the transfer of land — in effect, replacing one kind of property tax with another, far less stable source. Homeowners would lose the benefit of myriad tax breaks, starting with the homestead exemption. And they’d be hit with massive tax bills every time they sold or bought a home. A simple calculation shows how this might work: A typical annual tax bill for a $250,000 home in Florida is a little less than $2,400. But the tax bill on that home, levied at the point of sale, would add $30,000 to its cost. Because that total would likely be rolled into a mortgage, add interest charges. It would take that homeowner more than 12 years to see a net benefit.
This is likely to send Florida’s key industries reeling. Tourism and construction could both take a major hit under this plan. The hospitality industry is already forecast to see a drop in revenue because families are reluctant to spend money on travel in times of economic uncertainty. And those who are considering travel have plenty of options that don’t include the boast “We have the highest sales-tax rate in the country!” As far as the construction industry, a shift to a sales-tax-based economy could force the repeal of numerous exemptions, immediately increasing their pre-construction tax bills months before they see a benefit from increased sales of housing, commercial construction and other marketable real estate. There may be no builders’ benefit at all from cutting property taxes; by some estimates, Florida’s construction industry is already throwing up homes, strip malls and industrial facilities as fast as it can. The only ones who would predictably pocket more cash are the state’s biggest landowners, and many of them pay little tax on their land until they develop it.
A swap would see poorer Floridians carrying more of government’s costs. Sales taxes are regressive — they hit low-income families, who spend most of their paychecks in a weekly struggle to survive. Wealthier families and corporations can shield more of their income in investments, or engage in “tax tourism” to purchase goods in lower-tax states.
This would create a giant power suck toward Tallahassee, at the expense of local government. From massive metro Orlando to tiny Mascotte, the culture of local communities varies widely — and that’s reflected in their taxing and spending decisions. Currently, local leaders are entrusted with listening to their constituents’ priorities and setting tax rates and spending plans to match. Moving to a sales tax would put control of the vast bulk of Florida tax revenue into the hands of state lawmakers and the governor, leaving local governments vulnerable to the caprice of far-distant politicians and bureaucrats.
These are just a few of the problems we see. With a plan this sprawling and disruptive, there are sure to be others that don’t emerge until after the damage is done. If DeSantis decides to shove this plan forward with his typical haste, he’ll short-circuit a chance to really study this, including hearings across the state that give experts and everyday Floridians the chance to debate and question — and often, that’s exactly what he wants. This plan would have to go before voters, because of the myriad ways it defies the state constitution. But if DeSantis can stampede lawmakers into approving this issue for the 2026 ballot, the course could be set in stone, with the governor’s considerable powers of propaganda to push it to victory.
We should be clear: Florida’s system of funding government is a mess, riddled with inequities and favoritism toward the powerful. But it can’t be fixed at a gallop, and we fear that’s what the governor has in mind. Lawmakers should stand their ground and say “not so fast.”
The Orlando Sentinel Editorial Board consists of Opinion Editor Krys Fluker, Executive Editor Roger Simmons and Viewpoints Editor Jay Reddick. Contact us at [email protected]
Originally Published: February 27, 2025 at 10:10 AM EST
