Alright, last game of the year. We know how we got here, but still, another year where it feels like the two best teams in the country are playing. I’ve at least said Houston is the best team in the country, legacy game confirmed on the Mark Titus Show. This is the matchup I most wanted to see and would guess a good part of the country is happy to see. The storylines are easy and all over the place. Either way, we need one more great game. Saturday delivered, it helped save the bad Tournament talk. A great final will have everyone forget about a couple weeks ago. It’s been a few years since we had a great title game, but at least history tells us we can be in luck here. The last time all four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four was in San Antonio and we had this:
Bracket
Walter Clayton vs LJ Cryer
Taking a quick break to talk about two awesome point guards. Let me be more clear, a guy in Walter Clayton who is on a Kemba-type run, back-to-back 30 point games and has hit the biggest shots of the Tournament. On the other side LJ Cryer was the reason Houston won against Duke. He was on fire, keeping Houston just close enough to give them the chance for the comeback. That doesn’t happen if Cryer has a bad game. You have Clayton as a consensus 1st team All-American and Cryer as a Third Team guy. Oh, you also have Cryer trying to become someone who won a title on two different teams. We always say it’s a guards game come March and here we are.
Most Important Player on each team not named Clayton or Cryer
1. Thomas Haugh (Florida) – It has to be Haugh at this point. Shout out York, Pennsylvania, home of a bunch of greats. But the guy has had two big games in a row, especially with Alex Condon struggling. Now he can come in, hit some shots, give a different look and will be relied upon. I’ll talk more about Houston’s defense later, but the way they double and blitz, you need a big like Haugh to hit shots.
2. J’Wan Roberts (Houston) – The guy who everyone calls the face of Houston basketball. He’s been there for 6 years. He’s an elite defender, improved a ton on offense and a guy they can give the ball to in the post and let him go to work. That’s how teams try to attack Florida. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Roberts get a bunch of touches early and see if they can get some easy buckets that way to settle in.
Storylines, Previews, Breakdowns
1. Houston’s faceguarding defense – One of the things Houston will do is faceguard the opposing team’s best player, especially when it comes to guards. They want to deny your key ballhandler/scorer and force others to become playmakers. Florida obviously has the options but, again, Clayton has been unbelievable. You have to find the right way to get him involved and be okay with playing 4-on-4 with the others.
2. Rebounding – I know it’s cliche, but uh, you saw Houston against Duke, right? You’ve seen Houston against anyone this season, right? They murder teams on the offensive glass, BUT they are a bit vulnerable on the defensive side. They fly around so much that teams can take advantage here. Duke did a bit, Florida can too. You can’t let Houston have a massive shot advantage because you aren’t rebounding. Chinyelu is a guy on Florida who can be big in this role, same with the bigger guards they have.
3. Will Richard – He was the key in that second half against Auburn. Florida was getting destroyed in the halfcourt in the first half, especially the frontcourt. Golden decided to switch it up, move Richard into an on-ball guy and let him disrupt everything. It worked, obviously. The question is who do you do this with against Houston? They have Cryer and Uzan who can be the lead guard and run offense through. I think you put Clayton on Cryer, let Richard try to disrupt Uzan and have Martin on Sharp.
4. How’s the game officiated – It has to be talked about. Houston plays physical, they want a physical game. We know that refs can ruin a game with a million whistles. They can ruin a game even more by changing how they call a game from half to half. How they start to officiate this game will be something to watch. You can’t have a title game turn into a free throw contest. I don’t even think Houston fouls a lot, they are just physical and sometimes refs overreact to it. They aren’t the old Bob Huggins WVU teams who wanted to foul every possession and dare refs to call fouls.
Pick
17-16 so far in the NCAA Tournament, +.94 units
Houston -105
Houston -2.5 +130 (alt line)
I said it before and I’ll say it again, I think Houston is the best team in the country. I’m not overly worried about the fact they needed that comeback against Duke and the emotions that come from that. I know Florida is awesome, no one is saying otherwise. But there’s something about this Houston team. Sampson put this roster together perfectly with the shooters in Sharp, Uzan and Cryer to go with Tugler, Roberts and everyone else. If Mylik Wilson shows up and has a decent game, I love this roster even more. Ultimately it comes down to Houston’s ability to adapt a little bit more than Florida. Houston held Duke to one field goal in 10 minutes, there’s nothing out there that says they can’t do this against Florida too.
