(WPDE) — As of 2 p.m. on Tuesday, a disturbance south of the southern coast of Mexico, in the Eastern Pacific, has a 100% chance of forming into a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next 48 hours.

This forecast by the National Hurricane Center notes that development into a tropical depression or tropical storm could happen as soon as Tuesday night.

The disturbance is starting to organize near a broad area of low pressure. This disturbance currently lacks a defined center of circulation, but environmental conditions are conducive to further organization and development as it moves west/northwesterly.

A disturbance is roughly defined as an area of showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure that is over the ocean and could hold the potential to organize into a tropical system.

If this disturbance achieves tropical storm strength, the first name on the Eastern Pacific list for 2025 is Alvin.

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This may seem outlandish and out of season, however, hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific is already underway. It began on May 15.

The Eastern Pacific’s hurricane season begins before both the Atlantic and the Central Pacific seasons; however, its peak aligns with the Central Pacific’s peak, and the end of all three seasons shares the same date, November 30.

Hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific begins a few weeks earlier due to a few factors. Sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific are warmer and can support tropical development. There’s also often less wind shear early in the season in the Eastern Pacific, meaning there are fewer atmospheric features to inhibit tropical system growth. The final factor is the Central American Gyre, a seasonal and broad low-pressure area over Central America that can also spit out systems that become tropical in both the Eastern Pacific and the Atlantic.

When comparing the Atlantic’s season and the Eastern Pacific’s season, the Eastern Pacific has a longer period during which peak activity has occurred in the last century and more spikes in activity, too.

The Atlantic’s season has a gradual climb towards peak season, which occurs on September 10, and a gradual fall towards the end of the season. The Atlantic’s most active time falls in the ‘season within the season’, August 20 to October 10.