Five Teams That Could Actually Win the 2025 NCAA Tournament

Mar 15, 2025; Nashville, TN, USA; Auburn Tigers head coach Bruce Pearl reacts to a foul called against the Tennessee Volunteers during the second half at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

For the next couple of nights, 68 teams will go to bed with visions of winning the NCAA Tournament.

For a vast majority, it’s only a dream.

And for a few, a distinct possibility.

Here are five teams (listed alphabetically) whose chance of lifting the trophy on Monday, April 7, at the Alamodome in San Antonio falls into the latter category.

Auburn (+350)

Big man Johni Broome is in a close contest with Duke’s Cooper Flagg for player of the year, and the Tigers have four other players averaging between 10.7 and 12.6 points per game. Auburn might not have any lottery picks in the NBA draft, but it has an experienced group with all five starters in at least their fourth season of eligibility. The Tigers have the top offense in the country based on the KenPom ratings (their defense is 12th). Auburn lost 70-65 to Tennessee in the Southeastern Conference semifinals, giving the Tigers an extra day of rest this week. They had 16 Quad 1 victories on the season, the most in the nation. Coach Bruce Pearl looks to return to the Final Four for the first time since 2019.

Duke (+350)

Feb 5, 2025; Syracuse, New York, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer talks with guard Cooper Flagg (2) against the Syracuse Orange during the first half at the JMA Wireless Dome. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-Imagn Images

The Blue Devils won both the Atlantic Coast Conference regular-season and tournament titles, doubling up for the first time since 2006. And they won their final two tourney games without freshman phenom Cooper Flagg, who was sidelined by an ankle injury. Flagg is expected back for the NCAAs, though they could probably make the second weekend without him. The Blue Devils have one of the youngest rotations in the country, but they’re brimming with talent. According to the KenPom ratings, their offense is the second-best in the country and their defense is fourth. Two of Duke’s veteran players are dealing with injuries, with forward Maliq Brown out with a dislocated shoulder and guard Tyrese Proctor recently returned from a bone bruise in his knee. Coach Jon Scheyer, in his third season, is looking for his first trip to the Final Four since succeeding Mike Krzyzewski.

Florida (+380)

Mar 15, 2025; Nashville, TN, USA; Florida Gators guard Walter Clayton Jr. (1) reacts after a made three point basket against the Alabama Crimson Tide during the second half at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

Coach Todd Golden is still looking for his first NCAA Tournament victory, but that shouldn’t take long. The Gators have the country’s third-best offense and No. 7 defense, according to the KenPom ratings. Florida starts two big men — Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu — and all three of its starting guards shoot 35% or better from 3-point range. Walter Clayton Jr. leads the team with 17.4 points per game, with three others averaging in double figures. The Gators won 90-81 at Auburn in early February and blew out Alabama 104-82 in the Southeastern Conference semifinals, so there’s plenty on their résumé that suggests a deep run is possible.

Gonzaga (+5000)

Dec 14, 2024; New York, New York, USA; Gonzaga Bulldogs guard Ryan Nembhard (0) celebrates after a timeout is called by the Connecticut Huskies in the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

Everyone’s favorite mid-major has had a surprisingly down season and enters the tourney unranked despite having one of the deepest and most athletic rosters of coach Mark Few’s tenure. Point guard Ryan Nembhard leads the country in assists, and Graham Ike is a force inside, but the Zags have come up short in a number of close games — their eight losses have all been by eight points or fewer, with three of those going to overtime. They got past Saint Mary’s 58-51 in the West Coast Conference championship game, avenging a pair of regular-season defeats, and rank ninth offensively and 28th defensively by KenPom. Gonzaga has made the Sweet 16 nine straight times and reached the title game in 2017 and 2021. Overlook the Zags at your own peril.

Houston (+600)

Jan 15, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Cougars forward J’Wan Roberts (13) dribbles against West Virginia Mountaineers forward Amani Hansberry (13) in the first half at Fertitta Center. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

The Cougars have reached at least the Sweet 16 in each of the past five tournaments but have been bitten by injuries. They’re healthy now with a defense that is second nationally to St. John’s in the KenPom ratings (Houston’s offense is 11th). 

The Cougars won their first Big 12 tournament championship, beating Arizona 72-64 in the title game. Houston closed that game with an 11-2 run, holding the Wildcats without a field goal in the final 5:32. Point guard Milos Uzan, a transfer from Oklahoma, has settled into the role and scored a career-high 25 points in the Big 12 finale. As long as the Cougars can keep chugging offensively, they’re primed for a deep NCAA run. They shoot nearly 40% from 3-point range and are good at gaining extra possessions thanks to their offensive rebounding.

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