Tennessee takes on Vanderbilt at Food City Center. Saturday, Feb. 15, 2025.
Tennessee basketball Is back in the NCAA Tournament for the seventh straight time, earning a two-seed for the third time in that stretch and the top two-seed for the second straight season.
The NCAA Tournament selection committee handed Tennessee its draw on Sunday night as they’ll take on Wofford in the first round. Here’s four takeaways and notes on the Vols’ draw.
More From RTI: Tipoff Time, Broadcast Details Set For Tennessee Basketball Matchup Against Wofford
How SoCon Opponents Fared In Recent NCAA Tournaments
It’s been 10 NCAA Tournaments since the SoCon Champion was lower than the 13-seed. Wofford was a 15-seed in the 2014 tournament, losing to Michigan 57-40.
In the nine years since, the SoCon champion has been a 13-seed six times, a 12-seed two times and a seven-seed once. The conference has had some success in the NCAA Tournament over that stretch.
They’ve won just two games with 13-seed Furman defeating Virginia in 2023 and seven-seed Wofford routing Seton Hall in 2019. But they’ve played a number of close games. 13-seed Samford lost to Kansas by four points in 2024, 13-seed UTC lost to Illinois by one-point in 2022, 13-seed UNC Greensboro lost to Gonzaga by four points in 2018 and 12-seed Wofford lost to Arkansas by three points in 2015.
This Wofford team (19-15) is a lower seed because they finished sixth in the SoCon regular season standings but the conference has been a pest to higher seeds over the last decade.
Tennessee Got A Great Draw Based On Analytics
KenPom really likes Tennessee’s draw. He gives the Vols a 71.7% chance of making the Sweet 16, a 50.4% chance of making the Elite Eight and a 26.3% chance of making the Final Four.
Let’s compare Tennessee’s draw analytically to the other two seeds. The Vols do face the best 15-seed (Wofford) in the field by a full 19 spots on KenPom.
But after that, it’s pretty favorable. Tennessee’s seven-seed UCLA is the second lowest rated seven-seed and is just one-spot ahead of Illinois. Then Tennessee’s 10-seed Utah State is the lowest rated 10-seed in the field.
If we keep moving to the second weekend, Kentucky is the lowest-rated three-seed and Illinois is the second highest rated six-seed. In fact, Kentucky is just rated four-spots ahead of Illinois on KenPom.
Mixed Feelings On The Sweet 16 Matchup
Let’s start right where we left off with the potential Sweet 16 matchup. Kentucky and Illinois being rated so similarly makes for an interesting dichotomy. It makes it much more likely that Tennessee could face a six-seed instead of a three-seed in the Sweet 16 but it would be a better than average six-seed.
I tend to think that’s would still be a good thing. Illinois is better than its 21-12 record, in my opinion. They lost an abundance of games while battling injuries and illness during the middle of conference play but have performed well since then. Still, Tennessee beat Illinois on the road when both teams were at full strength.
Kentucky is interesting because they are a weak three-seed by rating but they also beat Tennessee twice this season. Sure, it’s hard to beat a team three times but Kentucky’s style of play and balance does present a bad matchup for the Vols.
The important thing to watch there is that Kentucky is banged up too. We’ll see who all would be available for the second weekend of the tournament.
Tennessee’s One Seed Draw Is A Good One
With two SEC teams on the one-line, Tennessee was only going to be paired with either Duke or Houston. By making a run to the SEC Tournament Championship, the Vols jumped Alabama to be paired with Houston instead of Duke.
The Cougars are a really good team too but I do think that’s the preferred matchup. Maybe just as importantly, I believe Houston losing before the Elite Eight is more likely than Duke. Houston’s second round matchup against Gonzaga is an incredibly tough one.
And if Tennessee and Houston do meet in Indianapolis for the Elite Eight, the Vols should have a significant crowd advantage.
