Following a five-game West Coast road trip, the Knicks played just one game back home, which ended up being a much-needed victory over the Heat. Now, they have to fly back out to face off against the Spurs in San Antonio. The good news, though, is that they’ll be heavily favored in tonight’s matchup against a struggling Spurs team that has lost 23 of its last 33 games.
The Spurs did look really solid at times earlier this season, building off of Wembanyama’s rookie season, incorporating veteran point guard Chris Paul, and utilizing a deep team that included names like Keldon Johnson, Jeremy Sochan, and Devin Vassell. They then made a splash during the trade deadline by acquiring De’Aaron Fox, and some thought that they had the potential to make a push for one of the play-in spots. Since then, though, they have lost both Fox and Victor Wembanyama to season-ending injuries and have sputtered. While they have solid wins against teams like the Grizzlies, Pelicans, and Suns over the last month and change, they also have some ugly losses. They lost to the Kings by 18, lost to a Mavericks team without Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving, and recently lost to the Hornets in a game in which they gave up 145 points in regulation.
Since February 12, Wembanyama’s last game, the Spurs rank 30th in defensive rating with an abysmal rating of 123.1 and are 24th in net rating with a rating of -6.1. Now, it isn’t all bad. While the playoffs and the play-in are likely out of reach, and their two centerpieces are out for the season, they’ve had some bright spots. They are 12th in offensive rating during that span, with an offensive rating of 117. And rookie standout Stephon Castle is blossoming in front of everyone’s eyes, averaging 17.6PPG, 4.2RPG, 3.3APG, and 1.1SPG while shooting 46.5% from the field over his last 30 games. And for his last 11 games, he’s averaging 20.7PPG, 4.5RPG, 4.2APG, and 1.1SPG, while shooting 47.7% from the field. In fact, the rookie has been playing so well that he’s now the runaway favorite to win the Rookie of the Year.
The Knicks, like the Spurs, have gone through some injuries of their own, with Jalen Brunson set to miss a few weeks, and Ariel Hukporti expected to miss even more. And, like the Spurs, they hit a bit of a rough patch. But they, also like the Spurs, have had some bright spots. Not only have they started to trend back up, winning three of their last four, but their defense has seen a major uptick since Mitchell Robinson was reinserted into the rotation following a long hiatus. In the nine games the Knicks have played since Robinson’s return from injury, the Knicks are second in the league in defensive rating. Some of that is due to the Knicks having to replace Brunson with Deuce McBride in the starting lineup, but it’s clear that New York’s style of play and road to victory has changed with their star point guard sidelined.
Since Brunson’s injury, the Knicks rank just 21st in offensive rating. But over their last four games, they seemed to have potentially figured some things out. While there have been some really tough-to-swallow offensive moments, you can see the team starting to learn how to play without their floor general. During Brunson’s absence, Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 24.4PPG, OG Anunoby has three games of 23 or more points, McBride has two games of 19 or more points, and maybe most importantly, Mikal Bridges has regained some of his confidence and form, averaging 23.4PPG, and 4.6APG, while shooting 64% from the field, and 47% from three.
Prediction
A game between two fully healthy versions of this team could’ve and likely should’ve been very entertaining to watch. Brunson and Towns vs. Fox and Wembanyama would’ve been one of the better point-guard-center duo matchups in the league. But with three of those four names set to miss tonight’s game, it’ll be less star-focused, and a bit more one-sided. Now, the Spurs, with Paul, Castle, and Vassell, can still score and put up a decent fight. But the Knicks have been very good at taking care of business and beating the teams they are supposed to beat. And the Spurs are very much a team they are supposed to beat.
I expect the Spurs to keep the game somewhat close, with the McBride and Castle matchup being a fun one to watch. But with Bridges and Towns playing the way they have, I think the Knicks’ subpar offense can take advantage of the Spurs’ horrid defense, with the Knicks’ very good defense being able to stifle what has been a solid Spurs offense. Knicks win 120-110.
Game Details
Teams: New York Knicks at San Antonio Spurs
Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX
Date and Time: Wednesday, March 19, 2025, 8:00 PM ET
Broadcast: MSG
Follow: @ptknicksblog and bsky
