Very few prop markets stick out as a sore thumb, but as Douglas Farmer explains, tonight’s Alperen Sengun market screams to be bet. Find out more below.
Douglas Farmer • Betting Analyst
Mar 25, 2025 • 14:34 ET • 4 min read
While the Atlanta Hawks try to hold onto homecourt advantage in the Play-In Tournament, the Houston Rockets are trying to hold onto the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. This is the rare March matchup where both teams are still actively looking to propel forward.
That allows my Hawks vs. Rockets predictions and NBA picks to be a more traditional handicap, and in that case, let’s bet on a Houston big man who should have a mismatch at tip at 8 ET on Tuesday, March 25.
Hawks vs Rockets prediction
My best bet: Alperen Sengun Over 10.5 rebounds (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Here is a risky boast to make publicly: This is simply a mispriced prop. Some consideration was given to publishing a “Best Bet” of Alperen Sengun 13+ rebounds at +220 at bet365, but let’s not get cocky. Those two added rebounds could conceivably be denied because the Houston Rockets run away with this game. That is unlikely given how well the Atlanta Hawks have been playing of late — covering the spread in three straight and winning outright seven of its last nine — not to mention the modest eight-point spread, but let’s still be conservative with this Over 10.5 rebounds prop.
Sengun has hauled in at least 11 rebounds in six of his last eight games, with one of those exceptions still reaching double digits. Look further back and Sengun has snagged at least 11 boards in 12 of his last 18 games, averaging exactly 11 rebounds since Feb. 12.
He has grabbed 17.7% of available rebounds this season, a career-high. He has been above that share in six straight games, emphasizing how well he is attacking the glass these days.
That should be readily apparent against a Hawks rotation with exactly one player finding more than 10% of rebounds. Onyeka Okongwu has shined in his fourth season, securing 17.5% of available rebounds when he is on the court this season.
But beyond Okongwu, Atlanta’s rotation is devoid of glass-crashers, and Sengun should be the biggest beneficiary of that tonight. Even if he isn’t, he has already made rebounding a recent emphasis.
Hawks vs Rockets same-game parlay
Alperen Sengun Over 10.5 reboundsOnyeka Okongwu Under 9.5 rebounds
Rockets moneyline
Some consideration was given to the other side of this Okongwu prop, enough consideration to know that the alternative version of this same-game parlay actually pays +350. But some deference should be given to Houston’s rebounding depth. Even if discounting Steven Adams’s overall style, the Rockets play three wings along with Sengun who can all crash the boards, each grabbing 11% of available rebounds or more.
That group effort should stymie Okongwu, part of how Houston should have the floor of an outright win tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your team goes up by 20+ points!
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Hawks vs Rockets odds
Hawks vs Rockets live odds
Hawks vs Rockets opening odds
- Spread: Atlanta +7 | Houston -7
- Moneyline: Atlanta +235 | Houston -290
- Over/Under: Over 233 | Under 233
Odds courtesy of bet365
Hawks vs Rockets spread and Over/Under analysis
- Atlanta opened as a 7-point underdog on Monday evening, a spread climbing to +8 and holding there but for some moments at +7.5.
- This total opened at 233 on Monday evening and climbed to 234 by the end of the night, then waiting until morning to jump to 235 and even 236 before settling at 235.
- That clear jump in the total can be tied to both teams of late, the Hawks clearing their total in four straight games while the Rockets have done so in five of their last six.
Hawks vs Rockets trend
While the Rockets have continued their winning ways, rattling off a nine-game winning streak before a close loss to Denver on Sunday, they have struggled against the spread of late, going just 1-4 ATS in their last five games. Find more NBA betting trends for Hawks vs. Rockets.
How to watch Hawks vs Rockets
Location Toyota Center, Houston, TX Date Tuesday, 3-25-2025 Tip-off 8:00 p.m. ET TV Space City Home Network, FanDuel Sports Network-Southeast
Hawks vs Rockets latest injuries
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