• Options pricing suggests traders expect Tesla stock to move roughly 11% in either direction after reporting first-quarter results after markets close on Tuesday.
• Over the past four quarters, the stock has averaged a post-earnings move of 12.3%.
• Tesla’s first-quarter deliveries came in well below expectations, and as of Monday’s close, the stock had lost more than 40% of its value this year.

Tesla (TSLA) is set to report first-quarter earnings after the bell, and investors are hoping results can jolt the stock out of its recent malaise. 

Options pricing suggests traders are expecting Tesla stock to move roughly 11% in either direction in the days after Tuesday’s report. Based on Tuesday afternoon’s share price of about $241, that would put Tesla stock between $212 and $269 on Friday. 

A double-digit post-earnings move wouldn’t be out of the ordinary for Tesla, one of the more volatile mega-cap stocks. After its four most recent quarterly reports, the company has seen its stock move 12.3% on average. Shares soared nearly 22% in October when the company beat earnings estimates and CEO Elon Musk said the company was “on track” to begin producing a model costing less than $30,000 this year. 

A lot has changed since October. President Donald Trump’s tariffs could derail Musk’s low-cost model plans. Trump’s 25% duty on all foreign cars and car parts is expected to significantly increase the cost of all automobiles—even Tesla’s, which are assembled in the U.S. with some foreign parts. 

Musk may have to answer to investors concerned that his involvement with the White House is both distracting him from leading Tesla and damaging the brand. Tesla dealerships have become a regular target of anti-Trump protests, and international sales have plummeted amid a global backlash to Musk’s political interventions. 

Tesla’s first-quarter deliveries fell short of analysts’ estimates, which had already been lowered since the start of the year. 

Trump’s tariffs are expected to loom large over this round of corporate earnings reports. Analysts are expecting a slump in the number of companies issuing earnings guidance. According to a recent JPMorgan analysis, traders are also expecting the most post-earnings stock volatility since the first quarter of 2020, when companies reported earnings at the height of Covid uncertainty.