Draper and Mensik have played once, also at a Challenger in France in 2023; the match was on hard courts and Draper won 6-4, 6-2. Draper will be favored to do the same on Saturday, but there are a couple of variables in play. What will his motivation level, and his physical condition, be like after his winning run in IW last week? Will he have a letdown, or will he be brimming with confidence? As for Mensik, we might ask an opposing question: Could his Challenger success last week, and his three-set win over Roberto Bautista Agut on Thursday, lead to a breakout win against a guy like Draper?

One thing is certain with two guys who are 6-foot-4: The serve will be paramount. Draper has made his one of the best in the game, and Mensik, who threw down 23 aces over three sets in his opener, isn’t far behind. I’ll take Mensik in a breaker or three. Winner: Mensik