JD Vance may be about to have a defining moment of his vice presidency.
Within 48 hours, Vance could secure a high-profile victory by shepherding a deal to prevent TikTok from being banned in the U.S. — a major win that eluded the previous administration and would come as President Donald Trump has faced an avalanche of setbacks in recent days.
Or, it could get messy. A deal could fail to materialize by Saturday’s deadline, or the White House could secure an agreement that causes blowback as the U.S. seeks to split the app from its Chinese owner.
Vance and Trump have said they are both confident they will announce a non-Chinese buyer for the popular app by the deadline. On Thursday, the president told reporters “we’re very close to a deal with a very good group of people.”
Earlier in the day, Vance — who was assigned to broker the deal alongside National Security Adviser Mike Waltz — promised on Fox News they were “in a good place” and that an announcement “will come out before the deadline.”
The stakes are high politically. Support for TikTok is increasing in the U.S., especially among younger, less politically engaged voters who will be crucial for Republicans to retain the House and Senate in 2026. And the deadline, which Trump established when he issued an executive order pausing a TikTok ban for 75 days, comes at a make or break moment for the White House.
Republicans on Tuesday suffered a colossal loss in a Wisconsin Supreme Court race Democrats had framed as a referendum on Elon Musk. Then came “liberation day” on Wednesday, when Trump announced sweeping reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries that promptly drove markets into a tailspin.
A spokesperson for Vance disputed the notion that the White House has had a rough few days. “The Administration had a historic week ushering in a new era putting American workers first, lowering costs and restoring wealth for all Americans,” Taylor Van Kirk, the vice president’s press secretary, said in a statement to POLITICO.
If Trump makes a deal, the White House will try to divert attention from the jaw-dropping fall in stocks to highlight a victory that evaded the Biden administration.
But if the White House extends the deadline, or announces a deal that exposes the administration to further unwanted scrutiny — for example by not completely locking out China — the blowback would likely to be swift and could land squarely on Vance.
The vice president has already enjoyed success and influence in the West Wing. Trump deputized him to help secure approval for his challenging Cabinet nominations with Republican holdouts on the Hill — and all of them ultimately fell in line.
Vance has also emerged as the president’s top attack dog, pummeling critics on social media and in friendly media interviews.
And although Vance has consistently evaded questions about the 2028 presidential election — when he is likely to run to replace a term-limited Trump — the outcome of the TikTok deal will remain on his political resume for years to come.
