Jim Miller and Chase Hooper will face off in the UFC 314 prelims on Saturday, April 12.
Here’s my Miller vs. Hooper prediction.
Jim Miller vs. Chase Hooper Odds, Prediction
Lightweight BoutOddsMiller Odds+550Hooper Odds-800Over/under rounds2.5 (+125/-165)
Projection: Chase Hooper 82.1%
After serving time as the UFC’s youngest rostered fighter at Featherweight, Chase Hooper is now being allowed to beat up the forty-year-old lightweights, closing as a -1200 favorite against Clay Guida, and moving toward a similar price range against Jim Miller – who will extend his record (to 46) for most career UFC bouts.
Miller is an extremely dangerous fighter in the first round against any opponent – he carries significant power in his left hand. He has a vicious guillotine he can use to entrap Hooper’s long neck.
Still, Hooper is 16 years younger than Miller, the far quicker athlete, and he should have substantially better cardio in the second half of the fight, after imposing a pace on Miller early.
Hooper has dramatically improved his cage wrestling, physicality, and ground and pound in recent fights, while exhausting opponents in constant scrambles. He is seemingly comfortable in every position on the mat. He can use his length (5″ taller, 3″ reach advantage) to gain additional leverage on submission attempts, whether upright or inverted in those scrambles.
While I project slight value on Miller’s moneyline, I’d prefer to bet his early or violence props if you like the underdog; to win in Round 1 (+2000), by KO/TKO (projected +1112, listed +1500) or inside the distance (projected +708, listed +900).
However, I also show value on Hooper by KO/TKO (projected +335, listed +650); Miller is difficult to submit; Charles Oliveira (2018) is the last opponent to make him tap; I’d expect Hooper to pound out a tiring Miller with strikes from mount in the back half of the fight.
Bets
- Chase Hooper wins by KO/TKO (+650, 0.1u) at BallyBet
- Chase Hooper Live after Round 1
