Regression came hard for the Mariners over a three-game sweep at the hands of the Blue Jays: the bottom of the lineup failed to start the engine of the top half of the lineup as it had so often during the historic nine-series win streak, while the pitching continued to struggle; the most effective starter was rookie Logan Evans, who didn’t get much help from the BABIP gods nor his lineup. The de facto staff aces of Bryan Woo and Emerson Hancock (?!?!?) will take over from here with a tough assignment facing the AL East-leading Yankees, fresh off a series win in Oakland Sacramento West Sacramento.

Yankees Mariners Yankees Mariners Game 1 Monday, May 12 | 6:40 pm RHP Clarke Schmidt RHP Emerson Hancock 54% 46% Game 2 Tuesday, May 13 | 6:40 pm LHP Max Fried RHP Bryan Woo 51% 49% Game 3 Wednesday, May 14 | 1:10 pm RHP Will Warren RHP Luis Castillo 48% 52%

Overview Yankees Mariners Edge Overview Yankees Mariners Edge Batting (wRC+) 135 (1st in AL) 119 (2nd in AL) Yankees Fielding (OAA) -5 (11th) -6 (13th) Yankees Starting Pitching (FIP-) 95 (6th) 92 (4th) Mariners Bullpen (FIP-) 79 (4th) 106 (12th) Yankees

Once contending with the Tigers for best record in the AL, the Yankees have seen their iron-clad grip on the AL East falter some lately as Boston has put together a strong streak over the past few weeks, creeping into second place at just two games back. Toronto is now hot on their heels after sweeping the Mariners. Aaron Judge remains the best player in baseball by a laughable margin; his 3.6 fWAR are a full win above the next-closest player (Bobby Witt Jr). He’s slashing close to .400/.500/.800, which, no matter how you feel about the Yankees and their short porch, is some absolutely amazing to witness in real time stuff.

Player Position Bats PA K% BB% ISO wRC+ Player Position Bats PA K% BB% ISO wRC+ Ben Rice DH L 144 23.6% 10.4% 0.309 165 Aaron Judge RF R 180 21.1% 13.3% 0.370 254 Cody Bellinger CF L 150 19.3% 10.0% 0.160 90 Paul Goldschmidt 1B R 167 17.4% 7.2% 0.151 155 Jasson Domínguez LF S 134 30.6% 11.9% 0.198 127 Anthony Volpe SS R 165 26.1% 10.3% 0.181 110 Austin Wells C L 134 19.4% 7.5% 0.248 106 Oswaldo Cabrera 3B S 117 21.4% 8.5% 0.068 84 Jorbit Vivas 2B L 24 29.2% 16.7% 0.053 60

Even though the Yankees weren’t able to re-sign Juan Soto this offseason, they’ve done an admirable job of recreating Soto’s production in the aggregate: newcomers Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger have been productive, Trent Grisham has bounced back after a few down seasons, and Ben Rice has enjoyed a big breakout. The problem is that there are only four spots in the lineup for Goldschmidt, Bellinger, Grisham, Rice, and Jasson Domínguez. The Yankees have essentially rotated those five players through the two corner outfield spots, first base, and designated hitter. Of course, everything hinges around Judge. There aren’t enough superlatives to describe what he’s doing this year.

Probable Pitchers

Updated Stuff+ Explainer

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

Pitcher IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP Pitcher IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP Clarke Schmidt 20 2/3 21.6% 11.4% 11.1% 37.3% 4.79 4.62 Emerson Hancock 23 2/3 16.7% 6.9% 12.0% 48.7% 5.70 4.22

Pitch Frequency Velocity Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+ xwOBA Pitch Frequency Velocity Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+ xwOBA Sinker 7.0% 93.7 Cutter 42.1% 92.2 90 74 101 0.308 Curveball 21.3% 84.8 112 0 0 Sweeper 27.7% 84.3 106 136 118 0.241

A lat strain interrupted what could have been a big breakout season from Clarke Schmidt last year. He had made the switch from a four-seamer to a hard cutter back in 2023, and was finally rewarded with positive results in ‘24. The cut fastball plays better off his big sweeping slider and his hammer curveball and he’s also got a sinker to provide yet another look for opposing batters to deal with. The injury bug struck again this spring; he was sidelined with a shoulder injury to begin the season and has only made four starts in the big leagues. He looked a bit shaky through his first three outings, but his last start was a solid six-inning affair against the Padres in which he allowed just two runs.

Pitcher IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP Pitcher IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP Max Fried 51 2/3 22.6% 5.3% 5.9% 50.7% 1.05 2.93 Bryan Woo 44 1/3 25.3% 4.6% 7.3% 35.0% 3.25 2.92

Pitch Frequency Velocity Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+ xwOBA Pitch Frequency Velocity Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+ xwOBA Four-seam 40.1% 93.9 104 89 121 0.285 Sinker 18.8% 93.4 112 151 112 0.287 Cutter 3.5% 86.2 Changeup 9.9% 84.2 96 Curveball 14.8% 75.6 119 109 56 0.229 Sweeper 12.1% 80.0 107 109 49 0.517

After missing out on Juan Soto, the Yankees immediately pivoted and signed Max Fried to a huge eight-year, $218 million contract. It has worked out fantastically so far. He’s leading all qualified starters in ERA, though his FIP and xFIP are both significantly higher than his surface level results might indicate. Still, he’s already a frontrunner for the AL Cy Young award and that’s exactly what the Yankees needed out of him after losing Gerrit Cole to Tommy John surgery this spring. Fried has essentially been the same pitcher as he was with the Braves: an odd cut four-seam fastball gives him a unique foundation while a pair of fantastic breaking balls give him the out pitches he needs to earn swings and misses.

Pitcher IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP Pitcher IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP Will Warren 36 25.9% 10.1% 12.5% 46.5% 4.75 3.62 Bryce Miller 43 1/3 17.5% 9.5% 7.1% 46.0% 3.95 4.11

Pitch Frequency Velocity Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+ xwOBA Pitch Frequency Velocity Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+ xwOBA Four-seam 37.2% 93.1 98 129 120 0.293 Sinker 17.5% 92.8 108 78 83 0.395 Changeup 15.5% 87.0 83 88 72 0.375 Curveball 5.0% 80.2 Sweeper 24.9% 82.4 108 96 70 0.344

All the injuries in the Yankees starting rotation have given Will Warren an opportunity to prove he can stick in the big leagues. He entered the season as the Yankees second ranked prospect behind Domínguez and had a fantastic spring training — he might have earned a spot in the rotation even without all those injuries popping up. He’s got a good fastball that has plenty of carry up at the top of the zone and pairs it with two different breaking balls that are both plus pitches. The sweeper is a classic Yankee whirly but he reintroduced a curveball into his pitch mix this year and that second breaking ball has looked fantastic so far. The only thing holding him back from top-of-the-rotation potential is mediocre command that has driven his walk rate up into the double-digits this year.

The Big Picture:

Team W-L W% Games Behind Recent Form Team W-L W% Games Behind Recent Form Mariners 22-17 0.564 — W-W-L-L-L Astros 20-19 0.513 2.0 L-W-W-L-W Athletics 21-20 0.512 2.0 L-L-L-W-L Rangers 20-21 0.488 3.0 L-L-L-W-W Angels 16-23 0.410 6.0 W-L-L-W-L

The A’s and Astros both drew closer while the Mariners got swept against the Blue Jays, despite the A’s dropping a series to the same Yankees the Mariners are about to see. As punishment for the hubris of enjoying Sutter Home Park for the past week, the A’s head out to play at Dodger Stadium this week, so as the Yankees roll into T-Mobile Park, let’s all have a shared Ave Imperator, morituri te salutant. The Astros enjoyed a series win against the Reds, and came close to a sweep despite Lance McCullers imploding in his first return to MLB since Truman was in office. They go on to welcome Kansas City, enjoying a recent upswing after a slow start to the season. The Rangers also won their series against the Tigers, who looked pretty mortal against Texas’s pitching while getting outscored 17- 6. So apparently Bret Boone works. The Rangers now get to pad their resume against the Rockies, who just fired Bud Black in a move the Oracle of Delphi is calling “maybe too much.” Also, the Angels are a team in the AL West.