Iowa State Cyclones guard Curtis Jones (5) steals the ball from BYU Cougars’s guard Egor Demin (3) during the first Over-time in the Big-12 men’s basketball in the Senior Day at Hilton Coliseum on March 4, 2025, in Ames, Iowa. / Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

On Thursday morning, BYU basketball will take on Iowa State in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 tournament. The Cyclones beat Cincinnati on Wednesday to advance to the quarterfinals.

Just last week, BYU beat Iowa State in a dramatic double overtime victory. KenPom, the industry leader in predictive college basketball analytics, predicted BYU’s chances to beat Iowa State for the second time in as many weeks. KenPom gives BYU a 38% chance to win with an expected final score of 77-73.

ESPN BPI’s projection is similar to KenPom’s – BPI gives BYU a 36% chance to win.

If BYU is going to beat Iowa State again, they will likely need to protect the basketball better than they did in Ames. In that game, BYU committed 29 turnovers including 12 turnovers from point guards Egor Demin and Dallin Hall.

The key to BYU’s upset over Iowa State last week was domination on the offensive glass. BYU tallied 17 total offensive rebounds to just 18 defensive rebounds for Iowa State. When BYU missed a shot, there was a 50% chance BYU was going to get another shot. If BYU can rebound at a similar clip on Thursday, they will have a chance to advance to the semifinals.

BYU’s depth should be an advantage in this game. The Cyclones keep their rotation really tight and they will be playing their second game in 24 hours. If the game is close with 10 minutes remaining, BYU should have an advantage with an 11-man rotation.