Severe weather is expected to strike again across the Midwest and South, bringing a threat of damaging wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes, the latest in a relentless run of springtime storms in recent weeks. This time around, forecasters are also concerned about the potential for life-threatening flooding, as a storm system is expected to stall over parts of the region for several days.

• This will be an all-day event as the storm system slowly pushes east.
• Cities including Memphis, St Louis, Nashville and Cincinnati may see tornadoes.

Meteorologists warn that the system will not move quickly, which will allow heavy rains to persist over multiple days, from Wednesday through the weekend. That may lead to “significant and potentially historic” rainfall totals, which will increase the risk of flash flooding, particularly in a region stretching from northeast Arkansas through the mid-Mississippi Valley and into southern Indiana.

“One of the problems is that this storm system isn’t going to be allowed to continue moving east,” said Richard Bann, a meteorologist with the Weather Prediction Center. An area of high pressure off the Atlantic coast will block it, he said, keeping the storm stalled while warm, moisture-laden air from the Gulf fuels heavy downpours. “That’s the crux of our concern” Mr. Bann said.

The Weather Prediction Center has placed areas from northeast Arkansas through the mid-Mississippi Valley and into southern Indiana under a threat of “moderate risk,” what it calls a level 3 out of 4, for excessive rainfall from Wednesday through Sunday.

The Weather Service in Paducah, Ky., has warned that these areas are likely to receive between six and nine inches of rain, with parts of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and southwest Indiana potentially receiving up to 12 inches.

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Notes: Values are shown only for the contiguous United States and are in inches of water or the equivalent amount of melted snow and ice. By Zach Levitt, Bea Malsky and Martín González Gómez

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