After their first homestand, the Mariners have a 3-4 record entering their first road series against the San Francisco Giants starting Friday afternoon at Oracle Park.
The Mariners opened the season with a thrilling win over the Athletics, and they closed out the homestand with an impressive 3-2 victory over reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal on Wednesday.
Those victories bookended an otherwise uneven week for the Mariners, who began the season with more legitimate questions about the offense and finished the opening week with (yep, you guessed it) more legitimate questions about the offense.
Through the season’s first week, here are six trends worth examining so far for the Mariners. (An obvious disclaimer with all of these: It’s early, folks. Repeat: It’s early.)
The Mariners have gotten just about everything you’d expected from the top four in their rotation — Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo — and there’s little reason to think this won’t again be one of the best rotations in baseball this season.
Through two starts, Gilbert has an 18-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 12 innings, having allowed just seven hits and four runs. He’s as good as any pitcher in the American League.
The 32-year-old Castillo, meanwhile, outdueled Skubal on Wednesday, pitching an efficient seven innings on a day the bullpen needed a break. It’s a great sign of a bounce-back season for Castillo.
The Mariners did have an unfortunate hiccup from Emerson Hancock in his first start Monday. He didn’t make it out of the first inning and was sent to Triple-A Tacoma the next day.
All indications are George Kirby (shoulder fatigue) is on schedule to return by the end of the month, and the Mariners are expected to promote right-hander Luis F. Castillo to make his first major league start as a fill-in for Friday’s series opener in San Francisco.
Because of this rotation, the Mariners should again be competitive in virtually every game. That’s the blueprint, and so far it’s playing out to script once again.
Some notable numbers for Randy Arozarena:
2024: 90.4 mph average exit velocity; 43.5% hard-hit rate.
2025: 94.7 mph average exit velocity; 60% hard-hit rate.
Arozarena got off to a rocky start in Tampa early in 2024, and it was fair to wonder how another right-handed slugger (hello, Teo) would handle hitting regularly in T-Mobile Park for the first time in the early spring months. So far, there’s a lot to like about Arozarena and his approach — especially his hard-hit rate, which ranks as the third-best in MLB through his first 28 plate appearances
Arozarena is hitting just .174 early on, but his batting average on balls in play is .154, which ranks among the lowest in the majors.
Similarly, it’s worth noting that Cal Raleigh (.125) and J.P. Crawford (.154) also have extremely low BABIPs so far. And as a team, the Mariners have a .211 BABIP, fifth-worst in MLB. For context, the Mariners had a .284 BABIP last season, and the league average BABIP so far this season is .272, all of which suggests the Mariners have been a little unlucky on the batted balls they have put in play through the first week. Those sorts of things tend to correct themselves over the course of a six-month season.
Andrés Muñoz, his shaky outing Wednesday notwithstanding, remains among the most talented closures in the game, and Gregory Santos’ impressive first week is among the most positive results of the early season for Seattle.
Lefty Gabe Speier also looks much closer to his 2023 form, and when you consider the positive injury updates on Matt Brash and Troy Taylor, there’s a lot of evidence to believe the bullpen could be a strength this season.
This has been the No. 1 issue with the Mariners’ offense for so long now … and, well, nothing has changed.
The Mariners are hitting a mere .172 as a team with runners in scoring position in large part because of their 11 strikeouts in 36 at-bats in those situations. Overall, the Mariners have struck out 66 times in seven games, a 27.5% K rate that ranks as the seventh-highest rate in the majors.
There is an acceptable and expected level of swing-and-miss with this lineup. That’s just who they are. But they can only do so much with so much swing-and-miss, and it will remain their biggest problem until it isn’t.
You could slice this a few different ways with Julio Rodríguez. First, one positive development that could lead to a more encouraging trajectory for the Mariners’ star center fielder: He’s taking his walks. And that’s a good thing. A very good thing.
He also won Sunday’s game against the A’s with one swing, blasting a home run nearly out of T-Mobile Park. It was the earliest he’s ever hit a home run in a season, and it was also one of the hardest-hit home runs of his career (113.3-mph exit velocity). Also, very good.
Here’s the bigger concern with Julio, though: He’s swinging and missing more than ever. Like, alarmingly so. Through 29 plate appearances, he has a 50% contact rate on all of his swings. That’s the second-lowest contact rate among all qualified MLB hitters so far. (Only Boston’s Rafael Devers, hitless in his first 21 at-bats to open the season, is worse with a 48.6% contact rate.)
That’s simply too much whiff to sniff, and Julio is simply too good to be flailing haplessly so often.
“He’s the type of hitter teams are going to be very careful with,” manager Dan Wilson said Wednesday. “He’s beginning to understand that and mature into that. But at the same time, when he hits the ball, it goes a long way. He can really do some damage. I think he’s had some really good at-bats. He’s learning a lot here, doing what he can to help the club.”
With Jorge Polanco at third base and Luke Raley at first, this infield defense just doesn’t pass the eye test. It just doesn’t look or feel sustainable, does it?
There’s more to it than that, of course. And it’s only fair to point out that there were similar questions about the infield defense early last season, before infield coach Perry Hill helped that group settle in to become a solid defensive core. Hill has already helped Ryan Bliss make some significant strides at second base.
Can he do it again at both corners?
Polanco, reinstated from the paternity list Thursday, had a great first few games at the plate, and his bat could be a real difference-maker if he remains healthy this season.
But Polanco does not look comfortable at third — especially throwing across the diamond. Could it be that Polanco’s best position, at this stage of his career, is as the designated hitter?
It’s fair to wonder how long it might take before the Mariners consider calling up Ben Williamson, their top third-base prospect now in Tacoma. Williamson needs to prove he can handle Triple-A pitching, but his glove would be an upgrade for the Mariners at third base right now.
A similar case could be made for Tyler Locklear, the club’s top first-base prospect, also in Tacoma.
