After a thrilling Final Four, the Florida Gators and Houston Cougars will square off in the national championship game Monday night.
Both teams were No. 1 seeds in their regions, and both came from behind in the semifinals to earn a trip to the final.
The Gators trailed the Auburn Tigers by as many as nine points before outscoring them by 14 points in the second half to win 79-73. The Cougars, meanwhile, were losing by 14 before storming back to knock off the Duke Blue Devils.
Florida is looking for its first championship since winning back-to-back national titles in 2006 and 2007. The Cougars, on the other hand, have never won in the championship round, only coming as close as the runner up in 1983 and 1984.
Which team will take home the trophy? Here are the biggest keys to Monday’s matchup.
More impressive Final Four comeback: Houston or Florida?
Greif: Without a doubt it was Houston’s, for two reasons. Though Houston’s defense was ranked as the best in the country this season in field-goal percentage allowed and total points allowed, Duke’s historically efficient offense presented its most difficult challenge.
Not only did the Blue Devils bog down offensively in the second half, they went more than seven minutes without a field goal, an absurd drought given Duke’s talent. Perhaps the even harder challenge for Houston, however, was finding enough offense to complete the comeback.
Scoring has never come easily for Kelvin Sampson’s teams in recent seasons, and though this year’s team is much more dangerous, it still doesn’t often produce points in bunches. Emanuel Sharp won’t have to pay for a meal the rest of his life around Houston’s campus with the way he shot the ball in the final minutes.
Nadkarni: It has to be the Cougars. Houston finished its game against Duke on a 22-8 run and was down by six points with roughly 33 seconds to go.
Did the Cougars need some luck? Absolutely. Houston was definitely aided by some awful inbounds passing and one mildly questionable call. (Cooper Flagg was going over the back.) Still, the resolve of Houston to hang in against a team loaded with NBA lottery talent absolutely meets the definition of impressive.
Having said all that, the Cougars can’t build themselves a hole and rely on a similar series of events against the Gators Monday if Houston actually wants to win this thing.
Will Houston’s LJ Cryer or Florida’s Walter Clayton Jr. have the bigger title game performance?
Nadkarni: I’ve been riding with Clayton Jr. since before the tournament began (check the tape!) and I won’t stop now. Clayton Jr. has been on an absolute heater, scoring at least 30 points in both the Elite Eight and Final Four — the first player to do so since Larry Bird! Clayton Jr.’s outside shooting and flair for the dramatic make him the obvious pick for me. And especially with one last opportunity to impress NBA scouts, I’m expecting magic from Clayton Jr. against the Cougars.
Greif: Clayton Jr. because after games with 30-plus points in the Elite Eight and Final Four, how could anyone in their right mind doubt his ability to deliver yet again? Clayton — who has averaged 24.6 points, 50 percent field-goal shooting and 48% shooting from 3-point range during the NCAA Tournament — has such a devastating ability to change speed and that instinct for hesitation continually caught Auburn’s defense unaware. I can’t wait to see how Houston’s swarming defense plans to stop him.
The biggest X factor Monday will be…
Greif: Pace.
Houston plays at a glacial pace ranked among the five-slowest in the country according to Ken Pomeroy. Florida’s tempo is much faster, ranked 59th, and the Gators would prefer to get up and down. Styles make fights, and this difference between the teams could dictate who wins.
Nadkarni: 3-point shooting.
We’ve seen the Gators overwhelm teams with their ability to shoot from outside. Threes were the biggest reason Florida came back against Texas Tech in the Sweet 16, and then the Gators also shot a better percentage from deep than Auburn in the Final Four.
During the regular season, Houston shot much more efficiently from 3-point range than Florida, converting 39.8% of their shots from outside compared to 35.5% for the Gators. However, Florida shot attempted 260 more 3s. Will volume or efficiency matter more Monday night?
National title pick
Greif: Houston 68, Florida 65
Even Phi Slamma Jamma didn’t reach the heights the Cougars did Saturday while rallying from 14 points down to beat Duke. That performance imbued Houston with a confidence that will carry them to its first national championship.
Nadkarni: Florida 81, Houston 71
I’m iffy on Houston because of how the thin of a thread the Cougars were hanging on in their eventual upset of Duke. To me, the Gators have been the more impressive team in the tournament, and I think emerging from a season of grueling SEC battles has prepared them for this moment.
Andrew Greif
