• What: No. 2-seed Michigan State vs. 10-seed New Mexico, NCAA tournament second round
• When: 8:40 p.m., Sunday
• Where: Rocket Arena, Cleveland
• TV/Radio: TNT/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 202
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 28-6 overall after its first-round NCAA tournament win and finished 17-3 in the Big Ten, winning the league outright. New Mexico is 27-7 overall after its first-round NCAA tournament win, having won the Mountain West Conference outright at 17-3.
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• Betting line: MSU -7
• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 734-301 in his 30th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. New Mexico — Richard Pitino is 247-185 in his 13th season as a head coach, including 88-48 in his fourth season with the Lobos. Previously, he was Minnesota’s head coach for eight seasons, including a 2019 second-round NCAA tournament game against MSU.
• Series: MSU leads 2-0 all-time, though the programs haven’t met since December of 1985.
Projected lineups
MSU
C (10) Szymon Zapala (7-0) 4.3
F (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 7.9
G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 12.6
G (11) Jase Richardson (6-3) 12.1
PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 7.5
New Mexico
C (23) Nelly Junior Joseph (6-10) 14.1
PF (22) Mustapha Amzil (6-9) 11.0
SF (8) Filip Borovicanin (6-9) 5.9
G (3) Tru Washington (6-4) 11.2
G (2) Donovan Dent (6-2) 20.6
• MSU update: The Spartans are in the second round of the NCAA tournament for the 17th time in the last 20 NCAA tournaments, a remarkable number that shows a consistency of postseason success, beyond making the tournament every year. They’re here after an 87-62 win over Bryant late Friday night that was a much tougher game than the score. MSU is trying to make the second weekend of the NCAA tournament for the second time since before the pandemic. The Spartans have won nine of their last 10 games, including their last seven Big Ten regular-season games to get to this point.
• New Mexico update: The Lobos’ win over 7-seed Marquette was a small upset, though they looked like the better team much of the night. Guard Donovan Dent led the Mountain West Conference in scoring at 20.6 points per game, while center Nelly Junior Joseph led the league in rebounds, by a ways, at 11.1 per game. New Mexico has wins over UCLA and USC this season, along with NCAA tournament teams Colorado State, VCU and Utah State. The Lobos also lost by 14 to 2-seed St. John’s on the road early in the year. This is their second straight NCAA tournament under Richard Pitino, who coached in the Big Ten at Minnesota for eight seasons. This is not a transfer-heavy team. Most of New Mexico’s playing group was on that NCAA tournament squad a year ago.
• Matchup analysis: Donovan Dent makes the Lobos go. The ball is in his hands a lot — he has one of the higher usage rates in college basketball — but it’s for good reason. He’s a multi-level scorer and shot-maker, and 40% 3-point shooter who only takes about two per game. He does a lot of his work getting to his spots inside the arc and getting downhill and to the rim. He operates one of the most uptempo offenses in college basketball, though it didn’t look like it against Marquette. New Mexico’s ability to win a game like that — played more in the half court than the Lobos would like — was a good sign for them. The Lobos have a couple volume 3-point shooters, though neither is shooting above 35%. They also have good size on the interior and couple guys who can be a bear on the boards. Not just Nelly Junior Joseph, but also guys like Atiki Ally Atiki. They’re especially good at keeping opponents off the offensive glass. So that will be a battle of strength vs. strength, a different game on the interior than what MSU faced against Bryant.
MORE: Couch: How Michigan State’s basketball team grew into becoming Big Ten champions
• Prediction: The Spartans’ were overly amped for their first-round game and it showed with some wild missed shots and missed assignments early on. That should be out of their system. I like this matchup for MSU. Dent is a terrific guard, but MSU has a lot to throw at him. I think MSU’s guards overall are better than New Mexico’s, and the battle for the boards will be no worse than a wash for the Spartans.
• Make it: MSU 76, New Mexico 68
MORE: Couch: Inside Jase Richardson’s road from career-threatening surgery to MSU basketball revelation
Contact Graham Couch at [email protected]. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
