Minecraft
WB
It always seemed like box office analysts were underestimating just how much A Minecraft Movie was about to earn, given the popularity of the series and precedent past video game movies have set.
Now, it appears that the enthusiastic young audience the movie has been targeting will double the film’s earning compared to early box office projections. Those ranged from $50 million to $80 million domestic depending on the estimates in question. The international total was supposed to be around $65 million and the idea is that it would make around $135-$150 million globally its opening weekend.
Well, about that.
Analysts missed big on this one. Thursday-Friday receipts are in and A Minecraft Movie has already made $55 million domestically. Now, the opening weekend is projected to be $130 million just domestically. And if that is an underestimate, if it beat The Super Mario Bros. Movie’s $146 million, it would be the highest grossing opening weekend for a video game movie ever.
Minecraft
Minecraft
This seems possible, and box office hawks have absolutely not realized just how big Minecraft is among two generations now, mainly Gen Alpha and Gen Z, with both growing up with the series that many may not know is the highest-selling in history with 300 million copies moved. Sure, Mario is a higher profile video game icon than Steve, but kids are going nuts for the movie, yelling and clapping in the theater over references and memes in the film. It had middling reviews from critics but kids are just going crazy for it. It has an 86% audience score, 40% more than what critics gave it. That is again, similar to how Super Mario Bros. played out.
I previously predicted that even if the movie was “bad” on a cinematic level, it is going to make a billion dollars. The original projections of a $150 million global opening weekend would have made that a stretch, but $130+ million domestic alone, plus at least half that globally? There’s little doubt it is well on its way to a billion with a sequel or two in tow.
Kids and their passion for video games should never be underestimated. This happened with Mario, sure, but also it’s the reason an initially terrible-looking Sonic the Hedgehog spawned a massive trilogy. It’s the reason Five Nights At Freddy’s did almost $300 million on a $20 million budget. And it’s why Minecraft is about to make a billion dollars, which few in the industry were predicting.
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