Oklahoma City is coming off a monstrous season and is primed for a deep playoff run. The Thunder appear to be a serious No. 1 seed based on the results of the last six months, and it’ll be a massive upset if OKC fails to play into May.
As for the Grizzlies? Well, a typical No. 8 seed doesn’t win 48 games and average more points than all but one team in the league. Memphis has talent, and there’s always the threat of a takeover-game by Ja Morant. But at one point, they were the No. 2 team in the West before drifting in a very competitive conference and eventually firing Taylor Jenkins because the expectations, fair or not, were loftier than this.
Series schedule
Here’s how to watch the Thunder vs. Grizzlies series:
All times Eastern Standard Time
- Game 1: Grizzlies at Thunder (Sun. April 20, 1 ET, ABC)
- Game 2: Grizzlies at Thunder (Tue. April 22, 7:30 ET, TNT)
- Game 3: Thunder at Grizzlies (Thu. April 24, 9:30 ET, TNT)
- Game 4: Thunder at Grizzlies (Sat. April 26, 3:30 ET, TNT)
- Game 5: Grizzlies at Thunder (Mon. April 28, TBD)*
- Game 6: Thunder at Grizzlies (Thu. May 1, TBD)*
- Game 7: Grizzlies at Thunder (Sat. May 3, TBD)*
* = If necessary
Top storyline
The GameTime crew take a look at the Thunder’s chances of winning the NBA championship.
Weren’t the Grizzlies supposed to be the Thunder? Just a few years ago, Memphis was the young Goliath, a high-seeded team with the goods to be a contender for years to come. Morant was the most exciting player in the game, Jaren Jackson Jr. was Kia Defensive Player of the Year and the surrounding help was solid. Then, things happened, mainly Ja missing time due to suspension and injury, and here they are.
Time waits for no one, and while the Grizzlies dealt with those growing pains, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder seized the opportunity to slide into their up-and-coming spot. Now it’s OKC with the ability to flex as the favorite to emerge from the West. It must be a humbling experience for the Memphis franchise, to look at OKC and wonder what could’ve been.
Keep your eyes on
Ja Morant’s bounce. He’ll play his third game in six nights since spraining his right ankle in the first Play-In contest. And while Morant looked somewhat normal in the win over Dallas, he must face a much tougher task with trying to contain Shai, the league scoring leader.
Even if the Grizzlies switch Desmond Bane on Shai on one end, Morant must shake free of Lu Dort — one of the league’s better defensive guards — on the other. Assuming he’s healthy, Morant will need to be the best guard on the floor for generous stretches, if not an entire game. Not many have managed to do that this season while sharing a floor with Shai.
1 more thing to watch for each team
For Thunder. Usually in the postseason, coaches will tighten up the rotation. But in this situation, doing that would remove one of OKC’s strengths. The Thunder can go nine, even 10 deep with a swarm that tends to overwhelm the opposition.
In this series, expect OKC to stick with what brought it here, if only because Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe, etc., etc., will likely maintain a level of performance that will command minutes. If OKC engages in a few blowout wins — the Thunder made a habit of that during the season — this would also allow the starters to preserve plenty of gas for the next rounds.
For Grizzlies. Jackson and rookie Zach Edey must present a tough matchup for Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren if Memphis plans to invite any measure of suspense in this series. Edey dropped a pair of double-doubles in the Play-In Tournament and brings the interior presence to combat Hartenstein.
Meanwhile, Jackson is a superb defender, even on the perimeter where Holmgren is fond of playing. Jackson can be an impactful player when he’s aggressive on both ends. He’s a notoriously poor rebounder for his size, so that’ll need to change against a big OKC team that is a presence around the rim.
1 key number to know
18-10 — The Thunder were 18-10 in games they trailed by at least 10 points this season. That was, easily, the best down-by-double-digits record for any team in the 29 seasons for which we have play-by-play data. In fact, only 11 other teams (none this season) had a winning record when trailing by double-digits over those 29 years.
Oklahoma City was the best first-quarter team in the last seven years, outscoring opponents by 17.1 points per 100 possessions in the opening 12 minutes. Those 28 games they trailed by double-digits were tied (with Boston and Cleveland) for the fewest in the league. But when they did fall into a hole, the Thunder were still tough to keep down. And that 18-10 record includes a 10-6 mark against teams that had winning records.
The Grizzlies were 42-11 (12th best) in games they led by double-digits. Their biggest lead in their four-games against the Thunder was an early, nine-point advantage on Dec. 29, and that was erased pretty quickly.
— John Schuhmann
The pick
Thunder in four. OKC won 68 games this season and is poised to not only win four more, but four straight. This series seems lopsided in the Thunder’s favor, for so many obvious reasons — highly-rated both offensively and defensively, size and depth, and the mastery of Shai. Memphis hasn’t been a threat since late January, losing nine of 14 down the stretch. The Grizzlies bring three capable scorers in Ja, Jackson and Bane, and Edey’s tough on the glass. That still might not be enough to win a game, let alone an entire series against a team that never lost more than two straight all season. Expect big nights from Shai and some lockdown D from Dort.
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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.
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