It’s time to fill out your bracket, and what’s March without a little madness in the form of some Cinderella teams to root for along the way? Scott Pianowski reveals four double-digit seeds in position to pull off an upset in Round 1 of the men’s NCAA tournament.

Note: All team stats courtesy of the indispensable KenPom.com.

When you’re looking for an upset for your tournament bracket, the 12-5 matchups are a good place to start. In 33 of the previous 39 tournaments, a No. 12 seed has won at least one game. In two of the past three dances, the No. 12 seeds have split with the 5s.

Although Michigan stormed to the Big Ten tournament championship with three wins in three days, the NCAA tournament committee didn’t seem to take Sunday’s result especially seriously. The Wolverines still had to settle for a No. 5 seed, and its opponent — UC San Diego — is considered the best of the No. 12 seeds. The Tritons are ranked 36th overall in KenPom efficiency, just 11 slots behind Michigan, and the oddsmakers have UCSD a modest 3.5-point underdog for Thursday’s game. UC San Diego has a 15-game winning streak working, longest in the country.

[Yahoo Fantasy Bracket Mayhem is back: Enter for a shot to win up to $50K]

Often I’ll look to fade a team off a conference tournament win, especially if the task required multiple games in a tight window. Michigan had to ward off three opponents in three days to lift its Big Ten trophy, while UC San Diego only needed two wins to secure the Big West title. The Tritons also enjoy an extra day of rest — they played their final on Saturday, while Michigan worked on Sunday. It’s open to wonder if the Big Ten should consider moving its final up a day in the future, given that the yearly Selection Sunday results so often don’t seem to factor in the Big Ten final a great deal.

The Tritons have the personality of a mid-major that can go deep. UC San Diego starts five upperclassmen, it takes care of the ball (seventh in lowest turnover rate) and it shoots the ball deep (eighth in 3-point rate) and well (57th in 3-point percentage). The Tritons also force turnovers, while Michigan has struggled to protect the ball at times (328th in turnover rate).

Full disclosure, I’m a Massachusetts transplant who moved to Michigan two decades ago. I’ll always root for both the Wolverines and Michigan State, even if some of my newer friends frown on that approach (pick a lane, they tell me). I want both the in-state teams to go deep, and I’m encouraged by what head coach Dusty May has accomplished in his first season in Ann Arbor.

But the selection committee didn’t do the Wolverines any favors. And you need to pick with your head, not with your heart.

Seasoned tournament players understand we need to consider the point spreads as we map out our tournament strategy. Yale is the smallest underdog of the four No. 13-seeds — catching just 7.5 points against Texas A&M.

The Bulldogs have won 16-of-17 games and are another team that protects the ball (19th in turnover rate) and shoots the 3-pointer well (ninth in three-point percentage). Senior guard Bez Mbeng will get your attention — he was named Ivy League Player of the Year a week ago, and has been tabbed the conference’s Defensive Player of the Year three straight seasons. Although the Aggies have an experienced team, ball security has been a problem at times (249th in turnover rate). Texas A&M also enters this game on a 2-5 skid, although that reflects life in the uber-competitive SEC.

If your pool gives out incentive points for upsets, put a circle around Yale. And I might just grab the Bulldogs outright, given the shape of this matchup.

If both of these upsets come through, buckle up for a fun weekend. Both UC San Diego and Yale are seeded in the South region and would thus play each other in the second round.

If John Calipari can lead Arkansas past Kansas, the Razorbacks would be in for a potential matchup against Rick Pitino and St. John’s. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

Can we ever view a John Calipari team as a legitimate Cinderella? Well, the Razorbacks are sitting on a 10-seed and they’re 5.5 point underdogs to No. 7 seed Kansas. It’s been something of a free-fall for the Jayhawks, who were No. 1 to start the year but fell out of the AP poll a few weeks ago. Kansas is just 7-8 in its last 15 games.

Does a preseason result matter to you? The Razorbacks beat the Jayhawks 85-69 in a charity exhibition game in late October. Point guard Boogie Fland, a big part of that exhibition upset, is expected to go this week after missing two months with a hand injury.

While Rick Pitino’s second year at St. John’s has been an enormous nationwide story, Calipari’s reinvention with the Razorbacks interests me, too. Arkansas played just one poor game in its final 15 despite the competition of the SEC, and I don’t trust the way Kansas failed to jell over the past five months, tumbling from No. 1 team to unranked unit. The NCAA committee probably had a wry smile when it presented a possible second-round matchup between Arkansas and No. 2 seeded St. John’s in the West regional, given the historical links between Pitino and Calipari. I think there’s a decent chance we’ll see that matchup happen.

[Full NCAA tournament bracket revealed | Printable bracket]

If you’re daring enough to consider a No. 14 seed causing some havoc, note that Troy is a modest 10.5-point underdog against Kentucky, the lowest spread among the four games at this seeding line. The Trojans do a couple of things that drive opponents crazy — they play volleyball on the offensive glass (sixth in offensive rebound rate) and they take the ball away on defense (seventh in steal percentage).

I’m not trying to send Big Blue Nation into a panic (or into my mentions for a snark fest). The Wildcats are experienced and beautiful to watch on offense. Mark Pope was the right man to take the reins from Calipari; this feels like a long-term answer. And Troy struggled when asked to step up in class this season, losing all three games to power conference teams, including two blowouts.

But upsets are often born from dynamic guard play, and Troy senior Tayton Conerway was the Sun Belt Player of the Year. He looked to score more aggressively in the conference tournament, a trend that might continue if the Trojans are to topple the mighty Wildcats. At minimum, I expect this game to be closer than most anticipate.