A chance to play for the No. 8 seed is on the line on Wednesday as the Miami Heat take on the Chicago Bulls in the Eastern Conference play-in and the Sacramento Kings host the Dallas Mavericks in the Western Conference play-in tournament.
All four of these teams sit at +200000 to win the NBA Finals, a sign that oddsmakers don’t expect them to make much noise even if they do somehow advance to the playoffs.
Miami is facing a tough matchup with a Bulls team that went 3-0 against it in the regular season, while the Mavericks are trying to salvage a lost season after trading away Luka Doncic and losing Kyrie Irving to a torn ACL.
Oddsmakers have set the Kings and Bulls as favorites for Wednesday’s play-in action, although the Bulls and Heat are essentially set as a pick’em.
As I’m doing throughout the playoffs, I have a few plays for the two-game play-in slate on Wednesday. Let’s break ‘em down.
Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
This is an interesting bet for Josh Giddey, as it seems oddsmakers are hinting at him recording a triple-double. Here’s a look at just a few of Giddey’s prop lines in this game:
Essentially, oddsmakers think the one spot Giddey may fall short is in the assists department (he’s +105 to get 10 or more), so why not get +225 odds for him to record his eighth triple-double of the season?
Since the All-Star break, Giddey is averaging 21.2 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 9.3 assists per game. He recorded five of his seven triple-doubles during that stretch, including a 28-16-11 game against Miami in their final meeting of the regular season.
He should play major minutes in this game, and I like the value at +225 since the assists appear to be the market where he’ll be a little shaky when it comes to this prop.
This season, the Bulls and Heat have played some high-scoring games, thanks to Chicago’s penchant for pushing the pace.
They’ve combined for 230, 223, and 257 points in their three meetings, easily clearing this total in all of them. Now, the Heat are the No. 9 defense in the NBA, but I’m actually intrigued by a recent trend for them offensively.
Miami was fourth in the NBA in offensive rating over its last 10 games, and both of these teams were in the top half in the NBA in offensive rating since the All-Star break.
It’s no secret that Chicago would like to play an uptempo style, and as a result, the Bulls have allowed the third-most points per game in the league this season.
Erik Spoelstra’s experience in the play-in makes it tough for me to back the Bulls here, but I do think both of these teams are able to sneak into the 110s and push this total over on Wednesday night.
With Malik Monk banged up, DeMar DeRozan has been one of the primary playmakers for the Kings this season, and he’s thrived in the role. In 14 games without Monk, DeRozan is averaging 5.6 assists per game.
He finished March and April averaging 5.8 assists per game over a 24-game stretch.
Dallas is just 18th in the NBA in opponent assists per game, and I expect the Kings to rely heavily on DeRozan, Zach LaVine, and Domantas Sabonis in this game. DeRozan has plenty of play-in/playoff experience, and he’s picked up at least six dimes in 50 percent of his games since March 1.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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