The Winnipeg Jets will try to rebound in Game 4 on Sunday after being taught numerous lessons by the ramped up St. Louis Blues in their last outing. Have the True North franchise’s coaching staff and players learned from the high tempo attack their opposition displayed to perfection in the opening period on Thursday? That is the ultimate question.

With the loss of the power of the last change as the series moved to Missouri, head coach Scott Arniel could no longer rely solely on getting the match ups that he wanted for the majority of the game to stifle the Blues’ offense. Back in the Peg, the Jets were using Mark Scheifele’s line against the Blues’ Brayden Schenn’s trio, while using the Adam Lowry shutdown unit to contain St. Louis center Robert Thomas and his wingers. And that worked very effectively as Winnipeg did a great job at limiting the dangerous scoring chances at even strength. Even in the blowout game, the Jets only slightly lost the 5 on 5 expected goals battle, so while the Blues’ coaching staff was able to make some use of home ice’s last change, it was far from the deciding factor in the game.

It was the special teams’ play that was the biggest issue on Thursday, a theme that has come up all series long. Winnipeg did get some good news when defenseman Dylan DeMelo was back on the ice for practice on Saturday, so at least they will get a minute-crunching player back on the kill. The other potential positive sign was the sight of forward Gabriel Vilardi shedding the non-contract jersey, but we might have to contain our excitement because he was taking turns on the 4th line’s right wing with Jaret Anderson-Dolan.

Ignoring that last bit, here is how I am predicting the Winnipeg Jets to line up when the puck drops at noon Central on Sunday:

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I haven’t heard about any suspected lineup changes by the Blues’ coaching staff….and why would they after their club’s most recent performance.

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So now that the Jets know what the Blues’ line combinations likely are, how do they go about ensuring a better performance in Winnipeg’s second road game of the playoffs?

Well, first & foremost, it begins with starting on time. No more chasing the game from the opening puck drop and giving up the first goal of the contest. To be successful in a very hostile environment, the True Northers need to have their legs going early so they can be the team that is putting pressure on the opposing defensemen…and not the other way around. So many of the Blues’ goals in the series were started with a St. Louis’ forecheck that disrupted a defensive zone exit and we all know that Winnipeg is very capable of doing the same thing. Time to see it way more often on Sunday afternoon.

It is going to be a physical contest undoubtedly, with a massive 261 bodychecks on the books for both franchises through 3 games (87 per gm). With 47.9% of the hits to date, the Jets need to keep the aggressive play going to show that they won’t be intimidated by the opposition running them at every opportunity. Throwing your weight around is obviously important in the defensive end when trying to break up a Blues’ cycle, but I would like to see more of it at the defensive blueline to disrupt zone entries and force dump ins.

By doing the above two things, Winnipeg will give themselves a better chance to withstand St. Louis’ initial surge, while also making it more likely they will get opportunities for their powerplay to give them a much-needed offensive boost. While totally unconfirmed at this time, the return of Gabriel Vilardi to the powerplay could be huge for the Manitoban franchise. The skillful stick-handler is great at working down low on the man-advantage, forcing the killers to focus more on that and thus increasing the chances of Winnipeg slipping a pass into or through the low slot for a high danger look. One of the Jets’ two powerplay markers was scored from the net-side position typically manned by Gabe, so the team has already had some success coming from his “area of expertise“. Having the Blues focus on the net side & crease area will also open up the blueline for shots with traffic, which is how Winnipeg scored their other powerplay goal. The addition of Vilardi will also knock another forward down to the 2nd PP unit (most likely Alex Iafallo) and help make them a bit more dangerous as a result.

The return to full health of Dylan DeMelo will help Winnipeg out defensively and on the penalty kill, but it is best if the Jets could spend as much time as possible playing at even strength. Here is how the two teams have performed through the opening 3 contests of the NHL playoffs:

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For the first time of the series, the St. Louis Blues have the advantage in all the categories in section 1 of the above graphic. It is only when you look at 5 on 5 play that the Winnipeg Jets have the advantage in the Expected Goals & Fenwick percentages. The True Northers have been good at rebounding from less than stellar performances during the regular season and will be looking to do so once again on Sunday.

The time is plenty ripe for goalie Connor Hellebuyck to have a stand out performance in the post-season, as his struggles in the past have led to a narrative that can take on a life of its’ own if the multiple Vezina Trophy winning tender isn’t careful. My hope is that the players in front of Bucky play well enough that he won’t be required to put in a heroic outing, but I do want to see a return of the calm, cool, & collected goaltender every Winnipegger has come to know & love. The fact that he is getting beat in the top corners (mostly blocker) isn’t an omen of some fatal weakness in his game, it is just a sign that Hellebuyck is going down a smidge early and allowing opposing snipers the chance to pick a corner. Get back that ultra-focus that has served the veteran goalie so well over his career, then our club should be difficult to beat on any given night.

It is going to require a full team effort on Sunday for the Winnipeg Jets to return to Manitoba with a firm 3-1 lead on the series. Do you think our club will have the White Out fanbase grinning after a great victory over the hated St. Louis Blues? Or will the first round series become even tighter as the home town squads continue their dominance in the win-loss column?

Since the BOJA Boost has seemed to work the opposite way in the playoffs so far, I thought I would switch things up by showing the Enterprise Center crowd in the hopes that the anti-boost will take away the Blues’ home arena advantage tomorrow. I did find it a bit interesting that AIH member Pembina Puck Hog made the prediction of Cole Perfetti “probably” getting a goal in Game 3 and I can’t help but think that is a very accurate way to describe exactly what happened to Fetts on Thursday. Since maybe the AIH comment section is providing the Boosts in the playoffs….feel free to share your predictions, feelings, or wishes for Game 4.

Go Winnipeg!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

***14 exclamation marks for the 14 wins the Jets need to lift the Cup.***