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• 00:00ANNOUNCER: FROM THE WORLD OF POLITICS OF THE WORLD OF BUSINESS, THIS IS “BALANCE OF POWER.” ♪ JOE: FROM BLOOMBERG’S WORTHLESS IS TO REDUCE THIS TO OUR TV AND RADIO AUDIENCES WORLDWIDE, WELCOME TO “BALANCE OF POWER”, I’M JOE MATHIEU. KAILEY: PRESIDENT TRUMP SEZZLE ALTO OFFICES TO BE HER LAST ALL COUNTRIES, AS HE EXPRESSES ANGER WITH VLADIMIR PUTIN OVER YOUR GREEN NEGOTIATIONS. HE IS EXPECTED TO SPEAK THIS OUR. JOE: WILL HAVE ANALYSIS FROM A FORMER COMMERCE DEPARTMENT OFFICIALS AND DISCUSS BOTH TARIFFS AND TAXES WITH APPLICANT SENATOR TED CRUZ OF TEXAS, AT THE SITE GETS SET TO MOVE, BUDGET RESOLUTION THIS WEEK. KAILEY:. KAILEY: AND ELON MUSK IS IN WISCONSIN, WE NO ORDERS IN TWO HAS DISTRICTS HEADING TO THE POLL. WE WILL HAVE MORE ON THE STAGE WITH OUR GUEST FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA. JOE: THANK YOU FOR JOINING US FOR THE LATE EDITION OF “BALANCE OF POWER” ON BLOOMBERG BLOOMBERG TV AND RADIO. WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: GET A PREVIEW OF WHAT WE CAN EXPECT THAT THIS ROSE GARDEN. > > THE PRESIDENT WILL BE ANNOUNCING A TARIFF PLAN THAT WILL ROLL BACK THE UNFAIR TRADE PRACTICES THAT HAVE BEEN RIPPING UP OUR COUNTRY FOR DECADES. IT’S TIME FOR RECIPROCITY AND TIME FOR THE PRESIDENT TO DO WHAT IS RIGHT FOR THE AMERICAN PEOPLE AND THAT IS GOING TO TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY. JOE: JOINING US FOR MORE BLOOMBERG WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT JORDAN FABIAN. THE PRESS SECRETARY MADE IT CLEAR THAT THE GOAL ON WEDNESDAY TO ANNOUNCE COUNTRY BY COUNTRY TARIFFS RATHER THAN SECTORAL TARIFFS. DO WE KNOW ANYTHING BEYOND THAT ? > > ? > > NOT ALLOWED. THE PRESIDENT’S AIDES ARE WORKING ON A LOT OF OPTIONS. ONE PIECE OF CLARITY SHE DID GIVE US IS THAT COUNTRY BY COUNTRY TARIFFS ARE COMING WEDNESDAY, BUT TARIFFS IN SECTORS LIKE SEMICONDUCTORS AND DRUGS AND LUMBER ET CETERA ARE LIKELY TO COME ANOTHER TIME. WE KNOW THAT MUCH. WHAT WE DON’T KNOW IS WHAT THIS COUNTRY BY COUNTRY TARIFFS LOOK LIKE. JOE: THEY COULD TAKE A LOT OF TIME TO UNVEIL. JORDAN, WE HAVE COVERED THIS PRESIDENT FOR SOME TIME INCLUDING HIS FIRST ADMINISTRATION. THIS IS A RISK THAT AN EVENT. HOW DOES HE ROLL OUT INFORMATION AND POTENTIALLY HUNDREDS OF COUNTRIES, WILL HE STAND IN FRONT OF A MASSIVE MAP IN THE ROSE GARDEN? WHAT DO YOU EXPECT, BECAUSE THE MARKETS WILL BE WATCHING AND LISTENING. JORDAN: A. FIRST WILL BE ANNOUNCED DURING TRADING HOURS? DOES HE WAIT? [LAUGHTER] THAT HE WAIT? WILL WE KNOW ALL OF THIS INFORMATION AT THE ROSE GARDEN EVENT OR WILL HE JUST GIVE GENERAL TALK ABOUT HIS TARIFF PLANS AND THEN WE FIND OUT AS THE DAY BLEEDS INTO THE EVENING, MORE AND MORE INFORMATION? JUDGING BY PART EXAMPLES, I WOULD IMAGINE THE LATTER IS THE SCENARIO, THAT WE WILL NOT KNOW EVERYTHING RIGHT AWAY. BUT THIS IS QUITE AN UNWIELDY ANNOUNCEMENT IS A TWEET TO ROLL OUT. JOE: SURE, “LIBERATION DAY,” AS HE CALLS IT. JORDAN, THANK YOU. WE HAD A CONVERSATION WITH THE FOUNDER AND MANAGING PARTNER OF INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL STRATEGIES ON SPECIFICALLY WHAT WE MIGHT OR MIGHT NOT LEARN ON WEDNESDAY. > > I DON’T THINK THERE’S GOING TO BE CLARITY ON APRIL 2. I THINK THERE WILL BE SOME CLARITY. WHAT I MEAN IS THAT THERE WILL BE A BIG ANNOUNCEMENT. THE PRESIDENT HAS BOXED HIMSELF IN. IF HE HEARD HIS ADVISERS CONVINCE HIM THIS IS A BAD IDEA, THE MARKETS, THE ECONOMY, INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE IT IS BAD, HE HAS STILL BOXED HIMSELF IN. SO I THINK THERE WILL BE A BIG ANNOUNCEMENT APRIL 2. WHAT HAPPENS THEREAFTER IS MEANT TO BE LESS CERTAIN, MEANING THE RETALIATION AND THE RESPONSE OF A LOT OF OTHER TICKET A PARTICULAR INTERNATIONAL ACTORS, IS AS YET, UNCERTAIN. JOE: SO, SOMETHING IS COMING. WE’RE JUST NOT SURE WHAT SHAPE IT WILL TAKE. AS WE TURN TO NAZAK NIKAKHTAR, FORMER UNDER SECRETARY OF DEFENSE REP. ELLMERS: AND CURRENT PARTNER AT THE NATIONAL SECURITY PRACTICE OF WILEY REIN. GREAT TO HAVE YOU BACK. WILL WE BE FILLING IN THE BLANKS AT ANSWERING QUESTIONS ON WEDNESDAY, OR RAISING ONE’S OWN POTENTIAL TERRACE: OF REVIEW EXAMPLES THAT COULD COME? NAZAK: GREAT COMMUNITY. I WOULD LOOK AT THE FIRST STEP. PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS ALREADY TAKEN A NUMBER OF FIRST STEPS IN TERMS OF IMPOSITION OF TARIFFS, STUDIES TO IMPOSE TARIFFS. NOW WE’RE IN THE FACE OF RECIPROCAL TARIFFS AND I DON’T THINK IT WILL BE UNVEILED ON WEDNESDAY. BUT A SERIES OF FIRST ACTIONS THAT ARE REALLY SIGNALING CLOSE THAT FORESHADOWS ME BE MORE TO COME IF OUR TRADING PARTNERS DO NOT CONTINUE THEIR TRADE PRACTICES THAT BASICALLY CLOSE OF THEIR MARKETS TO U.S. PRODUCTS, U.S. EXPORTS. KAILEY: WHAT PARTNERS DO YOU THINK HER MOST RECENT TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT WEDNESDAY, THE PRESIDENT SUGGESTED OVER THE WEEKEND THAT HE HASN’T HEARD RUMORS OF THE SO-CALLED DIRTY 15, OR THE 10 COUNTRIES THAT HAVE THE WIDEST ABILITIES WITH THE U.S. THERE ARE THOSE THE ONES YOU WILL BE WATCHING? NAZAK: I WOULD BE WATCHING OUR MAIN TRADING PARTNERS THAT HAVE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT TARIFF PLUS NINE TARIFF BARRIERS, THE STANDARDS. THEY PRECLUDE U.S. EXPORTS GOING INTO THOSE MARKETS. THE LIST IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT. AND IT IS COUNTRIES THAT HE WOULDN’T EXPECT. THE MOST DISTORTED MARKET IS ARGENTINA AND IN SOUTH KOREA AND IN THE UNITED KINGDOM. ONE OF OUR CLOSEST ALLIES. INDIA, TURKEY, CHINA, BRAZIL, RUSSIA, SAUDI ARABIA — CANADA IS NO. 11 AMONG THE G20 IN OUR TRADING PARTNERS, CLOSEST ALLIES THAT HAVE TIES — TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF BARRIERS THAT PRECLUDE EXPERTS. THEY ARE ALL ON THE TABLE. IT DEPENDS WHICH WHEN THE PRESIDENT GOES AFTER THE PRESIDENT GOES AFTER FIRST TO MAKE AN EXAMPLE. JOE: I WANT TO ASK YOU ABOUT WHAT WE HEARD FROM PETER NAVARRO OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE IDEA OF TARIFFS AS A REVENUE GENERATOR. HE HAD THIS TO SAY ABOUT THE IMPACT OF THE TARIFFS WERE — WHEN HE APPEARED ON FOX NEWS. > > LET’S WORK THROUGH THE ECONOMICS OF THIS. FIRST OF ALL, WE ARE GOING TO RAISE ABOUT $100 BILLION WITH THE AUTO TARIFFS ALONG. THE OTHER TARIFFS WILL RAISE ABOUT $600 BILLION A YEAR, $6 TRILLION OVER A 10 YEAR PERIODS. AND WILL HAVE TAX CUTS, THE BIGGEST TAX CUT IN AMERICAN HISTORY. JOE: HE JUST SAID A LOT THERE IN A SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. CLEARLY AS A REVENUE GENERATOR, $6 TRILLION THAT CAN’T BE A GAME OF LEVERAGE, USING TARIFFS TO EXACT CONCESSIONS. THAT IS PUTTING TARIFFS IN PLACE AND LEAVING THEM THERE FOR THE BETTER PART OF A DECADE, AS HE JUST REFERRED TO THEM, AS TAX CUTS. IS THIS THE DIRECTION WE’RE GOING IN? NAZAK: THE DIRECTION WE ARE GOING IN IS ABSOLUTELY TARIFFS, RIGHT, BUT ONCE THEY, ARE IMPOSED THERE ARE MANY MOVING PARTS. IMPORTS WILL SLOW DOWN. IMPORTS MAY SLOW DOWN JUST BY VOLUME FOR THE RESULTS. THE VALUE OF IMPORTS MAY DECREASE. IT WILL BE REALLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT HOW MUCH REVENUE WAS GOING TO BE GENERATED THROUGH TARIFFS. BUT YES, THE IMPOSITION OF TARIFFS IS WHAT THE PRESIDENT IS PLANNING, REALLY FIRST ANNOUNCED ON APRIL 1, BUT ADULT THING THAT WILL BE THE END OF IT. IT IS GOING TO BE SIGNIFICANT, UNPRECEDENTED, GOING TO GENERATE REVENUE. HOW MUCH THAT ULTIMATELY TRANSLATES INTO TAX CUTS AND HOW MUCH REVENUE WILL BE GENERATED IS REALLY JUST A FUNCTION OF MOVING PARTS. IT MAY WELL BE SUBSTANTIAL. KAILEY: AS WE TALK ABOUT ONSHORING, THE USE OFTEN THE IDEA THAT WE WON’T BE IMPORTING AS MUCH, DOES THAT MEAN THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH SUPPLY TO GO AROUND? HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE FOR AMERICAN MANUFACTURING CAPACITY OR PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY TO OFFSET WHAT IS LOST FROM NOT IMPORTING THINGS FROM PARTNERS? NAZAK: IT’S A GREAT QUESTION, BECAUSE IT’S NOT JUST OUR MANUFACTURING CAPACITY, IT IS ENERGY RESOURCES. THE WORKFORCE. THIS MULTITUDE OF THINGS THAT COME INTO PLAY. SO AT THE END OF THE DAY, I DON’T THINK ANYBODY’S EXPECTING AMERICA — EVEN THE PRESIDENT — TO BE ISOLATIONIST. WHERE THE FOCUS IS IS AND BRING AS MUCH MANUFACTURING AS POSSIBLE. A LOT OF THE CRITICAL MANUFACTURING WE NEED THAT NOT ONLY FIELDS THE IMPORTANT COMMERCIAL SECTOR, BUT THEY LACK CRITICAL MINERALS, SOME OF THE FOUNDATIONAL CAPABILITIES THAT WE NEED. THAT IS VERY MUCH AWARE THEY ARE FOCUSED ON ONSHORING SUPPLY CHAINS. LET’S GO AS FAR AS WE CAN GO WITH THE RESOURCES WE HAVE — ENERGY, WORKFORCE, ET CETERA, AND WE WILL HAVE IMPORTS. TO THE EXTENT THAT THOSE IMPORTS WILL BE TERRIFIED TO EVEN THE PLAYING FIELD. EVERYONE IS AWARE THAT PUTTING TARIFFS ON JUST FOR THE SAKE OF IT HAS BAD CONSEQUENCES. BUT TO CORRECT THE DISTORTIONS, THAT IS WHERE WE GET AN ECONOMIC PROSPERITY EQUILIBRIUM. THE PHILOSOPHY IS, LET’S BRING IN AS MUCH AS WE CAN AND WHERE WE HAVE TO IMPORT, LET’S TARIFF THOSE SECTORS OR ITEMS ARE COUNTRIES WHERE WE CAN ACTUALLY LEVEL THE PLAYING FIELD FOR THE AMERICAN INDUSTRY. JOE: SEEMS LIKE YOU’RE COMING AROUND ON TARIFFS A BIT. IS THAT FAIR TO SAY? ARE YOU OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE RESULTS OR ARE YOU WORRIED ABOUT WHAT WILL HAPPEN ON WEDNESDAY? NAZAK: THERE IS A LOT TO BE SEEN. FROM WHAT I UNDERSTAND AND SORT OF KNOW, THERE IS A LOT OF ANALYSIS GOING HERE. I THINK WHAT PEOPLE TRY TO PORTRAY AS THE PRESIDENT IS JUST GOING TO MOVE HAPHAZARDLY, BUT I KNOW THERE GREAT FOLKS AT THE WHITE HOUSE, THERE IS ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DAY-IN AND DAY-OUT AND THEY WILL GIVE THE PRESIDENT OPTIONS. EVERY OPTION SUPPORTED BY DATA AND STATISTICS, TRUE TRENDS, AND THEN THERE WILL BE THAT IT WILL BE UP TO THE PRESIDENT TO DECIDE WHICH COUNTRIES OR DISTORTIONS WHO WILL GO AFTER. BUT I WANT TO UNDERSCORE THAT THERE IS A LOT OF GOOD PEOPLE WORKING AROUND THE CLOCK AND DOING PRETTY SOLID ECONOMIC ANALYSIS. THEIR ABILITY AND CAPABILITY TO ANALYZE OUR VERY SOLID. EVERYBODY IS ON THE SAME PAGE IN TERMS OF AVOIDING UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES SO I’M PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT THE WAY THEY MOVE FORWARD WILL BE CALIBRATED VERY RATIONALLY. KAILEY: NAZAK NIKAKHTAR, FORMER UNDERSECRETARY FOR THE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, THANK YOU SO MUCH. COMING UP, TWO SPECIAL ELECTIONS IN FLORIDA THAT IS WHERE SUPREME COURT ELECTION IN WISCONSIN TOMORROW ARE SETTING UP TO BE BIG TESTS FOR THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION. WILL GET INSIGHTS FROM LARRY SABATO NEXT ON “BALANCE OF POWER” ON BLOOMBERG TV AND RADIO. > > WHAT DO YOU THINK OF MY HEART? [LAUGHTER] IT’S REALLY JUST TO GET ATTENTION. WE NEED TO GET ATTENTION. SOMEWHAT INEVITABLY WHEN I DO THESE THINGS, IT CAUSES A LEGACY MEDIA TO KIND OF LOSE THEIR MINDS. KAILEY: MASK-WEARING A CHEESE HAT HEART, RALLYING IN WISCONSIN YESTERDAY AND HEADING OUT $1 MILLION CHECKS TO TWO LOCAL VOTERS AHEAD OF TOMORROW’S SUPREME COURT ELECTION IN THE STATE, WHERE HE AND OTHER REPUBLICANS HAVE BACKED THE REPUBLICAN AGAINST THE JUDGE ADDRESSED BY DEMOCRATS. THAT ELECTION IS OFFICIALLY NONPARTISAN. JOINING US WITH INSIGHT INTO THIS RACE ON BLOOMBERG TV AND RADIO IS LARRY SABATO, DIRECTOR OF THE CENTER FOR POLITICS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA. LARRY, WELCOME BACK TO “BALANCE OF POWER.” THE BRENNAN CENTER FOR JUSTICE SAYS SPENDING IN THIS RACE HAS PASSED $90 MILLION AS OF TODAY, A RECORD FOR A STATE SUPREME COURT ELECTION. DOES THAT INDICATE — IS IT AN INDICATOR WILL BE ON WISCONSIN? LARRY: IT’S NOT THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN TO BUT IT’S THE BIGGEST GAME IN TOWN, CERTAINLY TOMORROW. WISCONSIN IS THE FULCRUM STATE, AFTER THE STATE THAT PUTS A PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE OVER THE 270 VOTES NEEDED TO WIN AN ELECTION. THAT’S WHY WE SPEND SO MUCH ON WISCONSIN. IT TENDS TO REFLECT THE MOMENT AND POLITICS. AT THE MOMENT BECOME MORE REPUBLICAN, MORE DEMOCRATIC, OR IS IT ABOUT THE SAME AS IT WAS LAST NOVEMBER? WE’LL FIND OUT TOMORROW. I WILL SAY THAT SPENDING IS PROBABLY THE MOST MEMORABLE PART OF IT IN THAT BOTH THE DEMOCRATIC AND REPUBLICAN NOMINEES FOR THE COURT TAKE EXACTLY THE POSITIONS YOU WOULD EXPECT THEM TO HER FOR THE REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT. NOT A LOT OF SUPPLIES. BUT 22 MILLION PLUS THAT ELON MUSK HAS SPENT ON THIS RACE. IN THE OLD DAYS, I REMEMBER WHEN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS WERE AROUND FOR LESS THAN $22 MILLION. [LAUGHTER] HERE WE ARE. JOE: PRETTY REMARKABLE WHEN YOU CONSIDER THE DOLLAR SIGNS. WHAT DO YOU MAKE ABOUT WHAT ELON MUSK JUST SAID THOUGH, THERE IS SOME TRUTH TO IT, YOU GAVE AWAY 2 MILLION-DOLLAR CHECKS, THE MEDIA GOES CRAZY. IT WOULD COST 10 TIMES MORE TO BUY COVERAGE LIKE THAT. IS HE THE NEW KING OF MEDIA? NAZAK: HE IS RIGHT IN SAYING IT. IT GOT AN ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF ATTENTION. IT DID IN PENNSYLVANIA IN THE GENERAL ELECTION MUST FOLLOW. IT WORKS. BUT THERE IS A PLUS OR -28. SOME PEOPLE ARE PAYING ATTENTION BUT THEY ARE TURNED OFF BY IT. OTHERS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AND THEY WISH THEY HAD BEEN THE MILLION-DOLLAR WINNER, BUT THEY PROBABLY ALSO ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THE CANDIDATE THAT MUSK CHOOSES. KAILEY: I WANT TO TALK ABOUT A DIFFERENT CANDIDATE, RANDY FINE IN FLORIDA’S SIX CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT, THE NOMINEE TO FILL THE SEAT VACATED BY MIKE WALTZ. WORLD, 1A HIS SEAT BE MORE THAN 30 POINTS IN NOVEMBER. DONALD TRUMP’S MARGIN OF VICTORY WAS ALSO 30 PLUS. YET RANDY FINE IS NOT OUT POLLING HIS DEMOCRATIC CHALLENGER BY THOSE MARGINS. IS THERE ACTUALLY A CHANCE THE SEAT GETS FLIPPED? LARRY: SURE, THERE IS A CHANCE. NOT ENORMOUS. BUT YOU WOULDN’T RULE OUT THE WAY YOU NORMALLY WOULD IN A PLUS 30 REPUBLICAN DISTRICT. I WOULD STILL BE SHOCKED IF THE DEMOCRAT WINS,, BUT THAT THE MARKET HAS RATED I THINK IT IS $30 MILLION TO ONE DOLLAR MILLION OR TWO WITH A THE DEMOCRAT. PLUS 30 REPUBLICAN DISTRICT SHOULDN’T EVEN BE IN CONTENTION. SO I GET IT. BUT IT IS A REMINDER TO CANDIDATES, NEVER, EVER TAKE ANY RACE FOR GRANTED JOE: SO IS THIS SECONDARY STORY OR IS IT A SHAPELY ELECTORATE THAT IS CAUSING PEOPLE LIKE US TO ASK YOU QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS? THAT SOMEONE IS LOOKING FOR — EVERYONE IS LOOKING FOR AN INDICATOR THAT THIS IS BIGGER? LARRY: IT IS BUILT. THERE IS ANOTHER SEAT, MATT GAETZ’ SEAT, FORMER NOMINEE FOUR ATTORNEY GENERAL HOLDER LEFT CONGRESS AND IS OFF DOING OTHER THINGS. THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE, THERE IS GOING TO WIN EASILY BECAUSE THAT CANDIDATE DIDN’T TAKE THE RACE FOR GRANTED AND IS ALSO VERY WELL-KNOWN AND POPULAR, HE HAS BEEN IN STATEWIDE OFFICE. SO WE WILL SEE HOW MUCH OF THIS IS THAT I WOULDN’T EVEN SAY ANTI-TRUMP, FLORIDA IS NOW VERY STRONGLY PRO-TRUMP AND PROREPUBLICAN. IT IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER THE REPUBLICAN COMES EVERYWHERE CLOSE — ANYWHERE CLOSE TO WINNING BY 30 POINTS. I DOUBT IT, BUT THAT VOTERS HAVE SURPRISES FOR US. MOST READINGS HAVE HIM UP BY ABOUT A THIRD OR HALF OF THE REGULAR MARGIN. NOW WHETHER HE NEEDS THAT PERCENTAGE, I DON’T KNOW. WE WILL FIND OUT TOGETHER. KAILEY: IF YOU DON’T NECESSARILY SEE FLORIDA AS BEING A REFERENDUM ON PRESIDENT TRUMP, IT WOULD BE A MISREADING OF WISCONSIN AS A REFERENDUM OF ELON MUSK? LARRY: SURE. ELECTIONS ARE NEVER THAT SIMPLE. THERE ARE ALWAYS MULTIPLE REASONS WHY ONE CANDIDATE WINS AND THE OTHER LOSERS. A PROFESSOR OF MINE BACK IN THE 18TH CENTURY, SAID TO ME — [LAUGHTER] — SAID THAT THE SIMPLE ACT OF VOTING IS MORE COMPLEX. BUT THE REASONS WHY YOU VOTE FOR TED TO LOTS OF ISSUES AND PARTY IDENTIFICATION, BUT ALSO THE CONDITIONS PREVAILING IN THE COUNTRY, THE STATE AND THE DISTRICT AT THAT MOMENT. JOE: JOE: IT’S GREAT TO HAVE YOU BACK ON BLOOMBERG, LARRY SABATO, AND DIRECTOR OF THE CENTER FOR POLITICS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA. COMING UP, PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYS HE IS VERY ANGRY AT VLADIMIR PUTIN THREATENING SECONDARY TARIFFS ON BUYERS OF RUSSIAN OIL. WE WILL GET THE LATEST ON THIS FROM BLOOMBERG’S NICK WADHAMS ON “BALANCE OF POWER” ON BLOOMBERG TV AND RADIO. > > I DON’T THINK HE IS GOING TO GO BACK ON HIS WORD. PUTIN, I DON’T THINK YOU WILL GO BACK AT HIS WORD. I HAVE KNOWN HIM FOR A LONG TIME, WE HAVE A GOTTEN ALONG WELL DESPITE THE RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA HOAX. JOE: TRUMPCARE ABOARD AIR FORCE ONE DISCUSSING VLADIMIR PUTIN ON THE SAME DAY THAT DONALD TRUMP SAID HE WAS, QUOTE, VERY ANGRY AT PUTIN, THREATENING SECONDARY TARIFFS ON BUYERS OF RUSSIAN OIL IF PUTIN REFUSES A CEASE-FIRE WITH UKRAINE — THAT CAME FROM AN INTERVIEW WITH NBC. FOR THE LATEST WE TURN TO NICK WADHAMS WHO RUNS OUR NATIONAL SECURITY TEAM HERE IN WASHINGTON. WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THIS LATEST TURN, DONALD TRUMP SAYS HE IS ANGRY AT PUTIN. DOES THAT BRING US CLOSER TO PEACE? NICK: IT IS TOUGH TO TELL WHETHER THIS IS FOR THE MATURE CHESS. ON THE SURFACE, THE PRESIDENT HAD SAID MANY TIMES HE WANTED A DEAL BEFORE HE EVEN CAME INTO OFFICE, BETWEEN INAUGURATION DAY AND WHEN HE GOT INTO OFFICE. HE BELIEVED OR SAID HE BELIEVED HE WANTED THIS DONE VERY QUICKLY. WHAT YOU’RE SEEING THE BAG IS RUSSIA SEEMS TO BE DRAGGING THIS OUT. THEY AGREED TO ENERGY TARGETS, THAT THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT A BLACK SEA CEASE-FIRE AND THEN PUTIN SAYS HE WANTS A TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT IN UKRAINE. SO IT’S NOT THE QUICK AND DONE AND DUSTED DEAL DONALD TRUMP WANTED. GOOD THING FOR UKRAINE IS HE IS NOT DIRECTING THAT IER UKRAINE, BUT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THIS PROCESS, DEREK JETER PUTIN. KAILEY:. KAILEY: HE SUGGESTED PUTIN IS TRYING TO BACK OUT OF THE MINERAL DO. DO WE HAVE A SENSE AS TO WHERE THAT STANDS? NICK. THE LAST WE SAW IF THERE WAS A VERY DETAILED MINERAL DEAL ON THE TABLE. WHAT HE PHRASED AS BACKING OUT, PEOPLE SAW AS PART OF THIS NORMAL BACK-AND-FORTH NEGOTIATION. WHAT HAD ORIGINALLY HAPPENED WITH THE U.S. PUT THIS DOCUMENT IN FRONT OF PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY’S HANDS AND SAID I HAVE TO READ IT. THEN THEY HEAD MARKET POSITION AND PUT EVEN MORE DETAILED DOCUMENTS — THIS THING IS ABOUT 50 PAGES LONG — AND UKRAINE NEEDS MORE TIME TO DIGEST THIS. SO THE QUESTION IS, WITH WHOM HIS TRUCK WENT TO RUN OUT OF PATIENCE MORE QUICKLY, PUTIN OR ZELENSKYY? RIGHT NOW IT IS A TOSSUP. JOE: TO YOUR POINT, HE PROMISED TO ELSE, THE WAR ON DAY ONE. WHAT DOES DONALD TRUMP HAVE TO COMPARE VLADIMIR PUTIN? NICK: WE WILL SEE. IF HE REALLY DOES SAY, OK, WE ARE GOING AFTER RUSSIA’S OIL, THE U.S. HAD TAKEN A LOT OF BITES AROUND THE EDGES ARE ACCRUED BUT HAD REALLY GONE AFTER NATURAL GAS IN A TOTALLY STIFLING WAY. SO IF HE SAYS WE ARE REALLY GOOD TO TURN THE SCREWS ON THEM, THAT IS ONE WAY TO RAMP UP THE LEVERAGE. OF COURSE, RUSSIA HAS OTHER SELLERS IT CAN USE. KAILEY: BUT I WONDER FOR A COUNTRY LIKE INDIA AND CHINA WHO ARE ALREADY BEING PREGNANT WITH A SUPER-CORE TARIFFS, IF THOSE SECONDARY TARIFFS ARE EVEN MORE FRIGHTENING. BLOOMBERG’S — I WONDER FOR A COUNTRY LIKE INDIA AND CHINA WHO ARE ALREADY BEING THREATENED WITH TARIFFS, IF THOSE SECONDARY TRAVELERS ARE EVEN MORE FRIGHTENING. BLOOMBERG NICK WADHAMS, THANK YOU. PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID HE WILL RULE OUT SEEKING A THIRD TERM IN AN INTERVIEW OVER THE WEEKEND. HE SUGGESTED QUEBEC THERE ARE METHODS THAT COULD ALLOW HIM TO DO SO. JOE: [LAUGHS] WE WILL SEE ABOUT THAT. THE CONSTITUTION ACTUALLY SAYS EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE. I WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE. KAILEY: YES: THERE IS A QUESTION AROUND THE 22ND AMENDMENT. WE WILL GET INTO IT WITH OUR PANEL ON “BALANCE OF POWER” ON BLOOMBERG TV AND RADIO. > > IT’S COSTING ME A LOT JUST TO BE IN THIS JOB. THEY ARE TRYING TO PUT MASSIVE PRESSURE ON ME AND TESLA, I GUESS, TO, I DON’T KNOW,. DOING THIS. THAT MY TESLA STOCK AND THAT EVERYONE HAS GONE AWAY ROUGHLY IN HALF. I MEAN, IT’S A BIG DEAL ELON MUSK RALLYING IN WISCONSIN YESTERDAY, DISCUSSING HOW HIS ROLE IN THE ADMINISTRATION HAS IMPACTED HIS BUSINESS — TESLA. SHARES DOWN 45% — IT’S MONDAY — SINCE DECEMBER 17. TODAY ALONE, DOWN 1.7 PERCENT. JOINING US FOR MORE IS OUR PANEL, RICK DAVIS ALONGSIDE JEANNE SHEEHAN ZAINO. SO, RICK, WE’VE TALKED ABOUT ELON MUSK’S ABILITY TO CONTINUE ON IN THIS CAPACITY. GIVEN THE OTHER DEMANDS ON HIS TIME AND HIS PUBLIC COMPANIES, WHERE DO YOU MAKE OF THIS ADMISSION OF THE COST IT’S TAKING ON NOT JUST HIS OWN PERSONAL FORTUNE, BUT ACTUAL SHAREHOLDER VALUE? RICK: HE IS THE WORLD’S RICHEST MAN SO HE CAN PROBABLY AFFORD A BIT OF DOWNTURN. HE SEEMS TO BE REALLY EMPOWERED TO SERVE GOVERNMENT. WHETHER YOU LIKE OR DISLIKE WHAT IS GOING ON AT DOGE, HE SEEMS INCREDIBLY EXCITED. WE SEE HIM AT ALL THESE VALUES, WHETHER IT IS THE OVAL OFFICE OR DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE OR THE CIA OR ANY PLACE HE GOES. HE IS LOVING EVERY MINUTE OF IT. HE HAD GOT ENORMOUS CAPACITY, A IS OBVIOUSLY ONE OF THE BRIGHTEST PEOPLE YOU’LL EVER MEET IN YOUR LIFE, SO IT’S UP TO HIM TO DECIDE HOW MUCH RISK HE WANTS TO PUT HIS BUSINESS EMPIRE THROUGH IN ORDER TO SATISFY A GROWING POLITICAL EMPIRE. JOE: OF COURSE, AGAIN, HE WAS IN WISCONSIN TO STUMP FOR THE SUPREME COURT CANDIDATE, WE HAVE AN ELECTION TOMORROW THAT WILL BE TALKING ABOUT THERE. HE IS GETTING ASCETIC ABOUT THIS, IN PART, BECAUSE HE GAVE AWAY A COUPLE OF MILLION DOLLAR CHECKS AND PUT MONEY BEHIND THE CANDIDATE IN THE FORM OF ADVERTISING. IS THIS THE NEW METHOD THERE MAKE A SPLASH LIKE THAT AND GET US TO TALK ABOUT IT? ELON MUSK WE HAVE BEEN BORN FOR POLITICS. JEANNE: [LAUGHS] IT’S FASCINATING. YOU WANT TO KNOW HOW AND POPULAR HE HAS BECOME, DEMOCRATS SWITCHED FROM TALKING ABOUT ROE V. WADE’S OVER TURNING TO TALKING ABOUT MUSK HOPING IT WOULD GET MORE PEOPLE ARE. THERE IS NOTHING DEMOCRATS LIKE LESS THAN THE OVERTURNING OF ROE V. WADE. SO IT IS SAYING A LOT ABOUT ELON MUSK. HE IS RIGHT TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT THE TOLL THIS IS TAKING. BUT HE IS, T. REX POINT, AT THE WEALTHIEST MAN IN THE WORLD. I THINK HE WILL RECOVER FINE. KAILEY: THERE’S ALSO TWO SPECIAL HOUSE ELECTIONS IN FLORIDA RICK, ONE OF THEM IN A SEAT IN THE SIXTH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT. REPUBLICANS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING A MARGINAL DEMOCRAT AT LEAST IN POLLING, THAT WAS ENTERED IN NOVEMBER. DO YOU SEE THIS AS A TEST AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE A REFERENDUM ON PRESIDENT TRUMP’S POLICIES AND, IN PARTICULAR IS THIS UNIQUE TO THIS CANDIDATE? RICK: A BIT OF BOTH. THE PRESIDENT DOES THE CANDIDATE IS NOT DOING A GREAT JOB, HE HAD TO RAISE MONEY TO EVEN PUT A TV AD THE WEEK BEFORE THE ELECTION. THE DEMOCRAT CHALLENGER HAS ALMOST $10 MILLION IN THE BANK THAT THEY HAVE BEEN USING TO CAMPAIGN AGAINST HIM. WHEN YOU ARE SPENDING $1 MILLION VERSUS $10 MILLION, THAT HAS A LOT TO DO WITH THE OUTCOME REGARDLESS WHAT THE MOTIVATION IS. BUT YOU CAN’T IGNORE IT. IT’S FLORIDA. YOU’VE GOT HALF THE CABINET FROM FLORIDA. THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES SPENDS EVERY WEEKEND DOWN THERE PLAYING GOLF. HE ABSOLUTELY HAVE TO SAY WHAT IS IMPACTING THIS? WHAT I DON’T UNDERSTAND IS, FOR AS LONG AS I HAVE BEEN REPUBLICAN, WE WOULD LOOK AT THESE SEATS AND SAY PUT AS MUCH MONEY AS WE CAN TO WORK, EVERY GET UP EARLY WE HAVE IN THOSE DISTRICTS AND MAKE SURE, WITH A TWO VOTE MARGIN IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, THAT WE DON’T LOSE ONE OF THOSE SEATS. NONE OF THAT WAS DONE. WHO IS AT HOME? WHERE IS THE RNC? THE NATIONAL HARRIS CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE? I MEAN, IT’S AMAZING TO ME THAT THERE HASN’T BEEN A MORE CONCENTRATED EFFORT ON THOSE TWO RACES JOE: WEDNESDAY, THE PRESIDENT LIKES TO CALL IT “LIBERATION DAY.” AND IT WILL DISSOLVE INTO A CONVERSATION, IF NOT AN ARGUMENT OVER TARIFFS AND WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN THE MARKET REACTION. A RED HEADLINE JUST CROSSED — AUTOMAKERS SEEKING TO EXCLUDE LOW VALUE REPORTS FROM TARIFFS. WE WILL BE TALKING ABOUT RECIPROCALS AND A LOT OF OTHER THINGS, BUT SPECIFICALLY AUDITORS, THERE HAS BEEN CONCERNED THAT SOME OF THE LOWER-COST VEHICLES THAT AREN’T ASSEMBLED COMPLETELY IN THIS COUNTRY, WOULD BE THE ONES TO SEE THEIR PRICES INCREASE THE MOST AND, THEREFORE,. LOWER INCOME BUYERS. WHEN YOU SEE A HEADLINE LIKE THIS, LOW VALUE REPORTS POTENTIALLY WITH AN EXEMPTION, ARE WE GOING TO GET A DIFFERENT STORY ON WEDNESDAY FROM PRESIDENT TRUMP, ONE THAT IS FULL OF CAVEATS? JEANNE: YOU WOULD THINK SO. LOOKING AT THE MARKETS AND HOW THEY ARE RESPONDING TO THIS, LOOKING AT PUBLIC OPINION POLLS AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS ALMOST NOBODY OUT THERE OUTSIDE THE ADMINISTRATION WHO THINK THIS IS A GOOD IDEA, THE ENTIRE LIBERATION DAY SHOULD BE A SERIES OF CAVEATS. BUT YOU KNOW WHAT, DONALD TRUMP IS COMMITTED TO THIS. SO IT MAY NOT BE. TIED BACK TO WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT, THE CONCERNS IN THESE TWO FLORIDA DISTRICTS. DONALD TRUMP WON THOSE BY 30 POINTS. DEMOCRATS SHOULDN’T EVEN BE PLAYING. YET YOU IN DISTRICT LIKE VICTORIA SPARTZ’ PEOPLE ARE UPSET BECAUSE THEY VOTED FOR TRUMP ON THE ECONOMY . HE WAS GOING TO GIVE US LOWER PRICES. WHAT ARE THEY FACING? A THREAT OF HIGHER PRICES. JUST WAIT A COUPLE OF WEEKS AND SEE HOW BAD IT GETS AFTER “LIBERATION DAY.” THINGS COULD BE POTENTIALLY WORSE. KAILEY: AND HE TOLD NBC OVER THE WEEKEND RICK,’S THAT HE COULDN’T CARE LESS IF CAR PRIZES RISE AS A RESULT OF THESE POLICIES. WILL THAT COME BACK TO HAUNT HIM? RICK: YEAH, THAT IS A TV AD MADE FOR THE POLITICAL FUTURE. AND OF COURSE WE HEARD THAT HE WANTS TO BE PRESIDENT FOR A THIRD TERM. KEEP THAT, DEMOCRATS. HE MIGHT WANT TO USE IT. [LAUGHTER] I DON’T THINK ANY OF THE THINGS HE SAYS OR DOES WILL BE WHAT VOTERS JUDGE HIM ON, IT WILL BE THE COMPOSITE IMPACT IT HAS ON THEM. SO IF THEIR CAR PRICES GO UP, THEY WILL BE UNHAPPY. IF THEY WANT TO BUY A MERCEDES AND THE PRICE WENT UP, THEY WILL BE UNHAPPY. I THINK WE HAVE LEARNED A LESSON THIS ELECTION CYCLE, IT IS ABOUT ECONOMICS AND RIGHT NOW, PEOPLE ARE PRETTY CRAMPY ABOUT THE FACT THAT PRICES ARE STILL HIGH, THERE IS STILL TROUBLING INFLATION, INTEREST RATES HAVEN’T COME DOWN. THE ECONOMY IS STAGNATING. THAT IS NOT WHAT DONALD TRUMP PROMISED, SO REGARDLESS OF WHAT THESE MECHANICS ARE, HE NEEDS TO SEE THAT EVERY GOOD ECONOMY IMPROVED. JOE: RICK MENTIONED THAT HER TERM JUNE,’S TALK TO ME, THE — HE SAID A LOT OF PEOPLE WHAT WE DESERVE BETTER TERM AND SUGGESTED THERE ARE METHODS TO CIRCUMVENT THE TWO-TERM LIMIT THAT IS CLEARLY LAID OUT IN THE CONSTITUTION. THE AMENDMENT SAYS “NO PERSON SHALL BE ELECTED TO THE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT MORE THAN TWICE.” WHAT IS HE TALKING ABOUT? JEANNE: HE SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT MAYBE IF JD VANCE WAS ELECTED AND THEN HANDED OVER THE SEAT TO HIM, THAT WOULD WORK. OF COURSE THAT WOULD BE A VIOLATION OF THE 12TH AMENDMENT. THERE IS NO PATH UNLESS YOU REVOKE THE 22ND AMENDMENT. AND REMEMBER WHAT JUSTICE SCALIA SAID ABOUT AMENDMENTS — THEY SHOULD BE HARD TO OVERTURN, BUT NOT THAT HARD. WE HAVE NOT HAD ONE SINCE, WHAT, THE 1990’S? AND THAT WAS WRITTEN BY JAMES MADISON WHO HAD BEEN DEAD OVER 200 YEARS. THERE IS NO CHANGE OF THAT AMENDMENT IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. IF HE CHOOSES TO RUN AND THINKS HE WILL SERVE A THIRD TERM, IT WILL NOT BE A LEGAL OR CONSTITUTIONAL MEANS. IT WAS A RIDICULOUS THING FOR HIM TO SAY. KAILEY: IT WAS SUGGESTED BY THE SENATE MAJORITY LEADER JOHN THUNE, AS WELL #2 LEADER IN THE HOUSE, STEVE SCALISE TODAY, THAT THIS MIGHT JUST BE PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYING THINGS TO MESS WITH THE MEDIA. IS THAT HOW YOU READ THIS? JEANNE: WELL, IT WORKED. [LAUGHTER] IT CERTAINLY WAS EFFECTIVE. JOE: THIS IS ALL PART OF PRESIDENT TRUMP’S PLAN TO SCRAMBLE THE DECK. EVERY SINGLE DAY, WHAT NEW THING, PUT OUT THERE THAT KEEPS YOU GUESSING AS TO WHAT I REALLY CARE ABOUT? RICK: WHAT IS MY CORE THINGS THAT I WANT TO ACHIEVE LAST PRESIDENT. WE JUST KEEP GETTING BACK TO HE WANTS TO HAVE PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND IN THE UKRAINE, WHICH WOULD PROBABLY MAKE YOU A CANDIDATE FOR THE NOBEL PEACE PRIZE. HE WANTS TO ADD TERRITORY TO THE UNITED STATES, SO WHEN HE TALKED ABOUT GREENLAND AND CANADA, BELIEVE HIM. AND HE WANTS TO BE THE GUY WHO BROUGHT INCREDIBLE WEALTH TO THE UNITED STATES, I.E. TARIFFS. SO IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTION AS TO WEATHER HE THINKS TARIFFS ARE A CORE PART OF HIS AGENDA, THAT IS WHAT HE BELIEVES HIS LEGACY WILL BE ALL ABOUT. THE REST OF IT I THINK IS BLUE SMOKE AND MIRRORS JOE: HE HAS LAWMAKERS STANDING BY. AT LEAST ONE, WITH LEGISLATION TO PUT HIS FACE ON MOUNT RUSHMORE. THIS ISN’T TOO FAR OF A BEDROOM FOR DONALD TRUMP. [LAUGHTER] WHAT DO YOU THINK? JEANNE: IT IS A VERY FIRE DREAM. ON THIS AND EVERYTHING ELSE, WE HAVE NEVER HAD A PRESIDENT THAT WAS INTRODUCED — HAS INTRODUCED AS MUCH CHAOS INTO THE SYSTEM, AND THAT INCLUDES ECONOMIC CHAOS WITH ALL THIS FOCUS ON TARIFFS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT. IF YOU WANTED TO FIX THE ECONOMY AND GET HIMSELF ON NOBEL PEACE PRIZE HE SICK HE IS A WAY FROM DOING THAT AND THE CHAOS IS NOT HELPING. KAILEY: IF WE CONSIDER THAN THE NOTION THAT — DOES IT MATTER WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE ECONOMY AND THE IMMEDIATE AFTERMATH OF TARIFFS RIGHT NOW IN 2025 OR ULTIMATELY WHERE WE ARE COME NOVEMBER OF 2026, THE MIDTERMS, AND IF HIS TAX CUTS COME THROUGH, THOSE POLICIES WILL HAVE TAKEN EFFECT? JEANNE: IT MATTERS AN ENORMOUS AMOUNT. I WAS LISTENING TO JAMES LANKFORD COMPARE WHAT IS GOING ON TO GETTING YOUR BATHROOM REMODELED. IT TAKES A LONG TIME AND THERE IS PAIN THERE IN THE END THERE WILL BE SOMETHING GLORIOUS THAT WE APPRECIATE. BUT THE REALITY IS THAT FOR MOST PEOPLE, THE BATTERY RENOVATION IS PAINFUL AND THEY DON’T HAVE THE MONEY TO DO IT. SO THE SHORT TERM PAIN — BURYING HIS METAPHOR — THE IMPACT LONG-TERM, SOME GLORIOUS REVITALIZATION OF MANUFACTURING, WE’RE NOT GOING BACK TO THE 19TH CENTURY. THIS IS THE PROBLEM FOR WHAT DONALD TRUMP HAS IN STORE AND WHY EVERY ECONOMIST SAYS “DO NOT DO THIS.” EVERYBODY EXCEPT POTENTIALLY, PETER NAVARRO. THIS MATTERS TO PEOPLE BECAUSE THEY VOTED FOR HIM NOT TO DO THAT, BUT TO MAKE SURE THAT THE ECONOMY CONTINUED TO GROW IN A HEALTHY WAY AND TO FIX THE BORDER. HE IS OK ON THE BORDER, BUT ON EVERYTHING ELSE IT HAS BEEN CHAOTIC . JOE: WHAT ROLE WILL THE MARKETS PLAY IN THIS, IF ANY? WE SAW A PRETTY TURN TODAY IN WALL STREET AFTER A DISMAL START TO THIS MORNING. ARE INVESTORS HOPING THERE MIGHT BE BETTER NEWS THAN SOME HAVE BEEN PROJECTING? RICK: HARD TO TELL. SO MUCH OF THE MARKET WAS A SIGNALING METHOD FOR DONALD TRUMP IN THE FIRST TERM. RIGHT, HE WOULD FLICK ON THE TV AND WATCH MARKETS ALL DAY. IT WOULD MODULATE WHAT HE SAID OR DID DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. NOW PEOPLE AROUND HIM SAY HE DOESN’T CARE ABOUT THE MARKETS AS MUCH AS HE USED TO. THEY DON’T MOTIVATE HIM. SO HE HAS LEFT THE MARKETS DO THEIR OWN THING. THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE MICROMANAGEMENT FROM THE WHITE HOUSE COMPARED TO HIS FIRST TERM ON TRYING TO RALLY MARKETS OR GIVE THEM AN INSIGHT INTO WHAT THE FUTURE ECONOMICS WILL BE. IT IS BASICALLY “TRUST ME.” YOU CAN IMAGINE GETTING USED TO THIS NEW CONCEPT BECAUSE NOT EVERYONE HAD THE CONCEPT OF A FIRST-TERM DONALD TRUMP, STOCK MARKET -ORIENTED. GOLD IS AT ITS HIGHEST POINT EVER. THE MARKETS HAVE BEEN ROILED. IT WILL BE A WILD RIDE FOR ALL CERTAINLY THIS CALENDAR YEAR UNTIL I THINK PEOPLE UNDERSTAND WHERE ALL OF THIS IS GOING TO LAND FOR DONALD TRUMP. JOE: BRINGS US BACK TO WONDERING WHETHER THIS ANNOUNCEMENT ON WEDNESDAY HAPPENS DURING MARKET HOURS. THANK YOU SO MUCH TO BOTH OF YOU, WILL FIND OUT EITHER WAY. COMING UP, LESS THAN TWO DAYS OUT FROM THIS IS “LIBERATION DAY.” WE WILL LOOK AT HOW CONGRESS IS PREPARING FOR THIS ANNOUNCEMENT WITH REPUBLICAN SENATOR TED CRUZ, UP NEXT ON “BALANCE OF POWER” ON BLOOMBERG TV AND RADIO. ♪ JOE: THIS IS “BALANCE OF POWER” ON BLOOMBERG TV AND RADIO. ALONGSIDE KAILEY LEINZ, I’M JOE MATHIEU IN WASHINGTON. BACK WITH US IS OUR POLITICAL PANEL, RICK DAVIS AND JEANNE SHEEHAN ZAINO AHEAD OF WHAT WE KNOW WILL BE A WILD WEEK IN POLITICS. WE DON’’T KNOW WHAT SHAPE IT WILL TAKE. JEANNE, WE WERE TALKING ABOUT THE MARKET REACTION SO FAR, NOT TO TURN INTO A STOCK ANALYST, WE WILL KEEP USA POLITICAL ANALYST. TO THE EXTENT THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP COMPARTMENTALIZES THIS MARKET, IT IS REMARKABLE. JEANNE: IT ABSOLUTELY IS. IT GOES BACK TO THE FACT THAT HE IS FIRMLY COMMITTED TO THE IDEA THAT WE NEED A NEW ECONOMY ESSENTIALLY, AND HE WOULD LIKE TO IMPOSE THESE TARIFFS. IT IS SOMETHING HE HAS LONG DREAMED ABOUT. AND NOTHING INCLUDED IN THE MARKET — NOTHING INCLUDED IN THE MARKETS ACTING THE WAY THEY HAVE FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS SEEMS TO DISSUADE HIM. IF HE DOES ON WEDNESDAY IMPOSE THESE TARIFFS AND IF THERE IS A VERY NEGATIVE REACTION FROM CONSTITUENTS, PARTICULARLY ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE, DOES THAT START TO MOVE REPUBLICANS AWAY FROM HIM AND CHANGE HIS MIND? BUT SO FAR, NOTHING HAS WORKED. HE IS COMMITTED TO THEM AND HE HAS SAID HE WILL SEE THEM THROUGH, EVEN THOUGH EVERYBODY SAYS IT’S A BETTER IDEA FOR THE ECONOMY. KAILEY: OF COURSE, TO LISTEN TO HIM AND HIS CLOSE ADVISERS AT IT’S NOT JUST TARIFFS, THEY ARE PART OF THIS WIDER ECONOMIC STRATEGY THAT ALSO INCLUDES TAX CUTS. THAT IS WHAT THE SENATE’S CHARGE IS THIS WEEK, FIND A WAY TO ADVANCE THE TAX-CUT PACKAGE THROUGH A BUDGET RESOLUTION. THE PROBLEM IS THEY HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE POLYMER TURN TO DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT THEY CAN MAKE THE MATH WORK. WORK AS THROUGH THIS CURRENT POLICY BASELINE SOCIAL AND WHAT THAT MEANS FOR HOW MUCH THE PACKAGE WILL COST, PUTTING THAT IN AIR QUOTES. RICK: THE FUNDAMENTALS OF RECONCILIATION IS JUST SUPPOSED TO BE FISCAL ISSUES. YOU ARE NOT SUPPOSED TO BE WRITING A POLICY INTO THAT LAW. IT IS THE EASIEST WAY TO GET SOMETHING PASSED WITH JUST 51 VOTES. THAT IS WHAT REPUBLICANS CAN DO, THEY CAN’T GET MORE THAN THAT OR CLOTURE WHICH REQUIRES 60. SO THEY HAVE THAT OBLIGATION. THE HOUSE, ON THE OTHER HAND, CAN PASS A RECONCILIATION WITH ONE EXTRA VOTE. ALL THEY NEED IS 200 18. SO THEY HAVE A MUCH EASIER TASK. AND THEY HAVE ALREADY BASICALLY PASSED THEIR STRUCTURE. AND IT WASN’T WHAT THE SENATE LIKED. NOT WHAT THEY HAD. THEY WANTED SOMETHING DIFFERENT — TWO BILLS, TAXES FIRST. WHICH, BY THE WAY, WOULD HAVE SOLD A LOT OF THESE ISSUES THAT ARE NOW GOING ON ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT WE GET THESE TAX CUTS. YOU’VE GOT TO WATCH FOR THAT AUGUST RECESS. BECAUSE EVERYTHING THAT IS HAPPENING NOW IS PREDICATED ON BOTH THE HOUSE AND THE SENATE GETTING THESE BILLS PASSED BY AUGUST RECESS. AND IF IT IS NOT DONE BY AUGUST RECESS, THINK ABOUT THIS, YOU GET BACK AFTER LABOR DAY, YOU HAVE THE ENTIRE GOVERNMENT SPENDING HITTING A CRATER AT THE END OF SEPTEMBER. YOU PROBABLY WILL HELP ONLY DONE AN EXTENSION OF THE DEBT LIMIT. IT WILL BE A FISCAL CLIFF LIKE WE HAVEN’T SEEN IN A LONG TIME. JOE: MAKES YOU WANT TO BUY. [LAUGHTER] LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE SITTING UP — SHAPING UP FOR VOTE-A-RAMA IN THE SENATE AND THIS WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DEMOCRATS TO MAKE NOISE, MAKE SOME NOISE AND MAY BE CREATED FORCED REPORTS FOR THE REPUBLICANS. OR WILL THEY? WILL DEMOCRATS HAVE A PULSE THIS WEEK? [LAUGHTER] JEANNE: WE DON’T KNOW. WE TALK ABOUT REPUBLICAN DISARRAY, BUT DEMOCRATS ARE STILL OBVIOUSLY STRUGGLING TO FIND THEIR VOICE. AS WE HEARD BERNIE SANDERS AND ALEXANDRIA OCASIO CORTEZ OUT ON THE STUMP, SOME CONGRESSIONAL MEMBERS LIKE OUR CONNECTICUT SENATOR MURPHY GOING OUT AND SOME OF OUR GOVERNORS, THE REALITY IS THAT DEMOCRATS HAVE NOT YET FOUND A WAY TO RESPOND TO DONALD TRUMP THAT IS RESONATING WITH THEIR BORDERS. SO IT WILL BE CURIOUS WHAT THEY DO. WE CAN’T UNDERSCORE ENOUGH HOW IMPORTANT THIS RECONCILIATION BILL IS TO DONALD TRUMP. BECAUSE IF HE IS LEFT WITH JUST INCREASING TARIFFS, THAT THAT LEAVES THE MOST POPULAR COMPETENCE OF HIS ECONOMIC PLANS OUT — DE-REGULATION, THE TAX CUTS. THOSE ARE THE POPULAR COMPONENTS. THE TARIFFS ARE NOT. IF HE JUST HAS ONE AND NOT THE OTHER BECAUSE CONGRESS CANNOT GET ITS ACT TOGETHER, THAT WILL BE DEVASTATING FOR HIS ECONOMIC PLANS AND FOR REPUBLICANS GOING FORWARD. KAILEY: BECAUSE SO MUCH RIDES ON IT FOR THE PRESIDENT, DOES THAT MEAN HE WILL BE AN ACTIVE PARTICIPANT IN WHATEVER GOES FROM HERE, KNICKERS FOR A WHILE HE WAITED AND WAITED ON THE ONE BILL OR TWO BILL STRATEGY. HE HAS BEEN UNWILLING TO GET ON THE PHONE, ARE THOSE PHONE CALLS TO CAPITOL HILL GOING TO START GETTING MORE FREQUENT? RICK: PLEASE DO NOT COMPLETE NEW NODDING MY HEAD WITH AGREEING WITH JEANNE. [LAUGHTER] JUST WANTED TO MAKE THAT CLEAR. WE HAVE SEEN THIS OVER AND OVER AGAIN WHEN THEY HAD TROUBLE IN THE HOUSE GETTING SOMETHING PASSED, THEY HAD THE CARCASSES ACCESS TO CAP MORE AND NOT SPEND AS MUCH, DONALD TRUMP HAS GOTTEN ON THE PHONE AND TALK THEM THROUGH IT. I DON’T THINK YOU HAVE THAT LACK OF DISCIPLINE IN THE CENTER. IT’S ALREADY PRETTY MUCH CONSTRUED TO BE A PARTY-LINE VOTE FOR THE CURRENT VOTE-A-RAMA THAT WILL BE GOING ON. AND I DON’T SEE ANYTHING THAT DEMOCRATS CAN DO TO UPSET HER. THE ONLY THING THEY CAN ACTUALLY DO TO AFFECT CHANGE IS IF IT IS A CLOTURE VOTE WHERE YOU HAVE TO GET 60 VOTES AND YOU NEED DEMOCRATS TO DO THAT — TO EFFECT CHANGE — AND I CANNOT IMAGINE A SCENARIO TODAY WHERE EXCEPT FOR A NATIONAL EMERGENCY, THAT DEMOCRATS WILL LEND A HAND TO THIS CONGRESS. JOE: MANY THANKS TO YOU ALL FOR THE INSIGHTS, AS MARKETS BRACE FOR THE IMPACT OF THE TARIFF ANNOUNCEMENTS. WE WILL TURN OUT TO CAPITOL HILL TO SEE HOW LAWMAKERS IN MANY STATES PREPARING, SPECIFICALLY IN THIS CASE ARE TEXAS, REPUBLICAN SENATOR TED CRUZ IS WITH US LIFE. WELCOME BACK TO “BALANCE OF POWER ” AS CHAIR OF THE COMMERCE COMMITTEE IN THE CENTER. I WONDER IF YOU DIRECTLY OR YOUR COMMITTEE ARE HELPING TO ADVISE THE ADMINISTRATION ON EXACTLY WHAT TO ANNOUNCE ON WEDNESDAY. REP. CRUZ: — SEN. CRUZ: SURE. I HAVE HAD MANY CONVERSATIONS WITH THE PRESIDENT ABOUT ECONOMIC POLICY WRIT LARGE AND TARIFFS IN PARTICULAR. HE USES TARIFFS FOR MULTIPLE PURPOSES. ONE OF THOSE PURPOSES IF HIS LEVERAGE TO INCENTIVIZE CONDUCT BY OTHER COUNTRIES THAT IS IN AMERICA’S INTEREST. THE CLASSIC EXAMPLE IS THAT THREATEN OF 25% TARIFFS ON MEXICO AND CANADA UNLESS AND UNTIL BOTH COUNTRIES ASSIST IN SECURING OUR BORDER, STOPPING THE INVASION OF ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS THAT WAS COMING AND STOPPING THE FLOOD OF FENTANYL. I SUPPORT HIS EFFORTS TO SECURE THE BORDER. THE CLEAREST MANDATE THAT CAME OUT OF THIS ELECTION IN NOVEMBER IS A DEMAND FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE TO SECURE THE BORDER. BEYOND THAT, THE PRESIDENT AFFIRMATIVELY LIKES TARIFFS, HE HAS A STRONG VIEW ON THAT. IT HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT VIEW OF HIS THE ENTIRETY OF HIS LIFE. WITH RESPECT TO TARIFFS. MORE GENERALLY, I CAN TELL YOU I HAVE URGED THE PRESIDENT TWO THINGS — NUMBER ONE, FOCUS ON CHINA. EVERYTHING WE CAN DO TO THE OUR ECONOMY FROM CHINA’S ECONOMY IS GOOD FOR AMERICAN NATIONAL SECURITY AND ECONOMIC SECURITY. NUMBER TWO, I HAVE URGED HIM TO FOCUS ON RECIPROCITY. I BELIEVE IN FREE TRADE. RECIPROCITY PUTS A DOWNWARD RATCHET ON ANY TARIFFS THAT ARE IMPOSED BY THE ADMINISTRATION, BECAUSE IF ANOTHER COUNTRY DOESN’T MAKE IT, THEY HAVE A PATH IN FRONT OF THEM WHICH IS TO LOWER THEIR TARIFFS THEY HAVE ON AMERICAN GOODS WHICH IN TURN WILL LOWER THEIR TARIFFS WE HAVE ON THEIRS. KAILEY: I KNOW YOU WANTED TO DISCUSS YOUR CONGRESSIONAL REVIEW ACT, LOOKING AT THE RULES IN WHICH THE IRS ACTUALLY DICTATES WHAT DECENTRALIZED FIRMS ARE IN EARNED BROKERAGES. IS THAT ADDRESSING A SYMPTOM OF THE LACK OF REGULATORY CLARITY AROUND DECENTRALIZED ASSETS AS A WHOLE? SEN. CRUZ: THAT IS ONE COMPLAINING OF IT, BUT MORE BROADLY, THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION’S HAVE A DEEP ANTIPATHY TO BE AND CRYPTOCURRENCY ACROSS THE BOARD. IN THE WILLINGNESS OF THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION, THE IRS WITH A REGULATION IN PLACE ON DECENTRALIZED FINANCE THAT TREATED THE PROGRAMMERS THAT ARE DEVELOPING THESE APPS AS BROKER-DEALERS, BUT REALLY ONEROUS REPORTING REQUIREMENTS OF MEN THAT WERE NOT REMOTELY PRACTICAL. SO I INTRODUCED A CONGRESSIONAL REVIEW RESOLUTION TO REPEAL THAT REGULATION. AND I HAVE TO SAY, IT GOT OVERWHELMING BIPARTISAN SUPPORT IN CONGRESS. IN THE SENATE, THE VOTE WAS 70-28 IN FAVOR OF REPEALING THIS TERRIBLE CRYPTO REGULATION. IT IS THE SINGLE BIGGEST BIPARTISAN MARGIN IN THE SENATE OF ANY CRA THAT IS HEADED TO THE PRESIDENT PARKER’S DESK FOR SIGNATURE. THE REASON IS THE ANTIPATHY OF JOE BIDEN AND ELIZABETH WARRANT AND SO WE NEED DEMOCRATS TO BITGRAIL CRYPTOCURRENCY, IT MAKES NO SENSE. IT’S A BIG FAVOR CRYPTO. KAILEY: SENATOR, WISH WE HAD MORE TIME WITH YOU. PLEASE COME BACK AND SEE US SOON. THAT IS REPUBLICAN SENATOR TED CRUZ OF TEXAS, JOINING US HERE. JOE: