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The Toronto Blue Jays have reached an agreement with first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on a 14-year extension worth $500 million. The deal contains no deferrals or opt-out opportunities while in the process granting Guerrero a full no-trade clause.
In addition to keeping Guerrero in Toronto for the foreseeable future — and perhaps the remainder of his playing career — the pact has some obvious downstream effects. One of the most notable is how it reshapes the top of this winter’s free-agent market. Observant readers may recall that, just a few months back, we ranked the 26-year-old Guerrero as this winter’s best available player.
With Guerrero’s service now rendered to Toronto for the long haul, we figured this would be a good opportunity to offer a revised top 10. Below, you’ll find that — plus some brief comments on each player’s work through the earliest stages of the season. (Do note that for now we’re excluding players who have option calls. There’s simply too much baseball remaining on the schedule to feel confident forecasting those decisions one way or the other.) Scroll slowly with us, won’t you?
1. Kyle Tucker, OF, Chicago Cubs
Tucker is off to a hot start with his new team, hitting .319/.458/.745 (233 OPS+) with five home runs, three stolen bases, and six more walks (12) than strikeouts (6) in 12 games. He’s a well-rounded talent who would have four consecutive five-win seasons to his credit were it not for last year’s fractured shin. Provided Tucker stays healthy, he’s going to sail into the winter as the top player on the list.
2. Dylan Cease, RHP, San Diego Padres
Cease has recorded 11 more strikeouts than walks in 10 ⅔ innings over the course of his first two starts (both against playoff teams). More interesting than his results are the changes he’s made to his arsenal. He’s reduced his fastball usage significantly, deploying his slider on a default basis and embracing a changeup/splitter that some pitch models classify as his best offering.
3. Zac Gallen, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Gallen is fresh off a dominant start on the road against the Yankees that saw him punch out 13 of the 24 batters he faced. His velocity is down about a tick on his fastball, but he’s atoned for the decline by adding nearly two inches of induced vertical break. So far, that trade-off is working in his favor, with the heater generating a 31% whiff rate and holding opponents to a .182 batting average.
4. Framber Valdez, LHP, Houston Astros
Not to be outdone, Valdez too has seemingly tweaked his arsenal through his first two turns in the rotation. He’s throwing a touch harder (his sinker is up 0.6 mph) and he’s chucking his curveball at a would-be career-high 37% clip (at the cost of his changeup and other, lesser offerings).
5. Walker Buehler, RHP, Boston Red Sox
One of the toughest players to rank entering the season, Buehler’s first two starts with the Red Sox have seen him surrender nine runs in 9 ⅓ innings. He’s dropped his arm angle, be it by design or otherwise, and his velocity has plummeted with it: he’s averaging a career-worst 93.3 mph on his heater. Buehler has also made his sweeper his go-to breaking ball. At least that’s working for him.
6. Michael King, RHP, San Diego Padres
Another volatile right-hander, King is experimenting with all kinds of arsenal tweaks through his first two turns in the order. He’s moved his sinker from his primary offering to his tertiary pitch, relying more on his changeup and four-seamer. Said four-seamer, by the way, has gained four inches of induced vertical break. That helps explain why he’s earned a 55% whiff rate on the pitch to date.
7. Bo Bichette, SS, Toronto Blue Jays
Bichette had a miserable 2024 showing. So far in the early going, he’s providing some reason for optimism. He’s making more contact (he’s connected on 95% of his in-zone swings) and making contact at a point that’s more conductive to hitting for power (even if that hasn’t shown up yet). Bichette’s defense is also grading better at shortstop, albeit in a super small sample.
8. J.T. Realmuto, C, Philadelphia Phillies
Realmuto figures to be the best catcher on the market this winter. Even so, it’s fair to keep your eyes open for signs of decay now that he’s past his 34th birthday. There’s nothing too shocking in his statistical profile just yet, but he is swinging more overall and whiffing more within the zone.
9. Kyle Schwarber, OF/DH, Philadelphia Phillies
All Schwarber does is hit. That’s all he can do, and that’s all he needs to do. Through his first nine games this season, he’s batting .265/.390/.647 (188 OPS+) with four home runs and a double.
10. Zach Eflin, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
There were a lot of justifiable candidates for this spot. Eflin gets the nod for now after beginning the year with back-to-back quality starts against divisional foes. Will he end the year in the top 10? Who knows. Eflin is among those on this list toying with new approaches; so far, he’s thrown his cutter as his top offering rather than the sinker he used to deploy in that role.
