You know when analytics folks talk about “running the simulations” to project things?
When the Phoenix Suns play the Minnesota Timberwolves, it’s like watching a real-life version of those simulations and the computer keeps spitting out the same outcome. The Suns will play mostly OK to good basketball for at least a half, possibly longer. Then, the Timberwolves will increase some combination of aggression, physicality and urgency that makes Phoenix fold in impressively rapid fashion. It’s so consistent, now in eight straight games after a 124-109 Suns loss on Friday, that it has to involve some greater explanation.
This was one of those nights when Devin Booker looked like he was in his third season, figuring out where the reads were with all the extra defensive pressure he was seeing. His normally routine nature of creating good looks off that was not there at all, which in turn, limited his scoring opportunities even more. He was scoreless in the first half, only the second time in over five years that has happened, with the other being earlier this season in Oklahoma City when similar issues arose.
At times, it feels like he is stuck in “just make the right basketball play” mode, with one instance in the first half when his defender made a mistake and left him open from 3. Booker instead presumably expected that blunder not to occur, so he made the pass to the supposed-to-be open man anyway.
It’s a subjective response on if you’d rather have Booker force it through double-teams or pass to an open teammate but when he’s in the mindset of doing the latter, as he almost always is, it has to be the right basketball play every time or else it just kills a possession. It put down quite a few on Friday. Booker was playing his best basketball of the season from a primary initiator standpoint over the last few weeks, so it was not due to a lack of playmaking rhythm coming into the game.
The timing was terrible because Timberwolves star Anthony Edwards missed the whole second quarter due to a nasal contusion, a quarter Phoenix played pretty good defense in. But it could not muster much of an offensive push to stay within striking distance at halftime.
That is when the game we’ve seen a handful of times in the last full year panned out from there. A 12-point Suns deficit quickly grew to 22 off turnovers and ball-watching. There was still a quarter-and-a-half to go but that was not going to matter and it did not.
Collin Gillespie was the lone bright spot, scoring a career-high 22 points and adding a career-high 10 assists. His two-way contract will surely be converted to a standard deal on an extension by the end of the regular season. Booker finished 4-of-14 for 10 points with six assists and four turnovers. Kevin Durant had a team-high 23 points (7-for-19) with six rebounds, two assists, two steals, two blocks and four turnovers.
Timberwolves forward Julius Randle continued his strong play against Phoenix this year, posting 25 points on 15 shots with six rebounds, eight assists and no turnovers. Five other Minnesota players were in double figures.
Bradley Beal (left hamstring strain) missed his sixth straight game. While the balance between Phoenix’s two stars has looked better without Beal in the fold, the Suns’ roster was specifically designed to not have many guys with an offensive-minded skill set because of how much the trio was going to provide. Phoenix (correctly) doubling down on this lately by playing the energy guys has almost exclusively had it relying on hot 3-point shooting nights to have an effective overall night offensively. And when one of the stars is off in a major way like on Friday, it’s curtains.
Beal’s scoring punch has been missed, and when discussing potential Suns roster movement this offseason, is something to consider when it comes to specifically the skill set. If Durant is indeed gone next year and possibly Beal too, Booker will need some help creating offense.
With the loss, the Suns drop to 35-39, one full game behind the 36-38 Dallas Mavericks for the 10th seed in the Western Conference. The Sacramento Kings, like Dallas, won on Thursday to improve to 36-37 in ninth while the Portland Trail Blazers (32-42) and San Antonio Spurs (31-41) were both defeated.
The next nine days will paint a pretty reliable picture of what the final week of the regular season will entail, whether that’s a race for spots down to the wire or something more dramatic requiring a late comeback. Here is the schedule for those five teams over the next nine days:
Sacramento: @ ORL, @ IND, @ WAS, @ CHA, @ CLE
Dallas: @ CHI, vs. BKN, vs. ATL, @ LAC, @ LAC
Phoenix: vs. HOU, @ MIL, @ BOS, @ NYK
Portland: @ NYK, @ ATL, @ TOR, @ CHI, vs. SAS
San Antonio: vs. BOS, vs. GSW, vs. ORL, @ DEN, vs. CLE, @ POR
To start from the bottom and work our way up, the Spurs should essentially be taken out of the running shortly with four out of five against great teams. Portland pretty much now has to take care of business against inferior opponents after that New York game or else it will be crossed off as well.
The Suns must steal at least one of those versus better teams, because Dallas and Sacramento are in a strong position to come away with at least two wins each and potentially more. For example, in a scenario where the Suns drop all four games and Dallas wins two, that would put the Mavericks 38-41 and the Suns 35-44 with three games left to play for both. Phoenix might even need to go 2-2. Doesn’t look good for ’em!
