Tesla (TSLA) is set to report its first-quarter 2025 earnings after the bell today, amid a backdrop of significant challenges and investor scrutiny. Despite a 5% rise in shares during today’s trading session, the stock remains down approximately 40% year-to-date, reflecting concerns over declining sales, increased competition, and CEO Elon Musk’s political engagements.
Expect YouTube (GOOGL) to light up with livestreams and hot takes as Tesla’s earnings hit. From finance creators to Tesla superfans, the post-call reaction economy will be in full swing — an ecosystem Musk has long helped fuel.
What the Street expects
Analysts expect revenue of $21.54 billion, up just 1% from a year ago — anemic by Tesla standards and a clear signal of softening demand. Earnings per share are projected at $0.42, a 6% drop year-over-year, as price cuts continue to weigh on margins.
Tesla has spent much of the past year slashing sticker prices to protect volume, but that strategy is now butting up against profitability constraints. Several firms have already slashed full-year guidance, citing mounting pressure on fundamentals and the capital demands of next-gen vehicle and autonomy bets.
Deliveries drop as brand heat cools
Global vehicle deliveries fell to 336,681 units in Q1, down 13% year-over-year and Tesla’s lowest total in nearly three years. The slowdown reflects both fierce competition — from Rivian (RIVN) and from China’s BYD (BYDDY) — and downtime linked to Model Y retooling.
“The stumbling sales during the first quarter indicate that the one-time leading brand is reeling from the fallout of the company delaying launches for years, and Musk’s foray into politics in the United States and Europe,” Reuters (TRI) reported.
In California, Tesla’s largest U.S. market, registrations dropped 15.1% last quarter. And since Musk accepted a role in the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Tesla stock has fallen week after week — a rare streak even for this historically volatile name.
DOGE’s damage
As of April 2025, DOGE, led by Musk, has been linked to over 275,000 federal job cuts, encompassing layoffs, buyouts, and eliminations — amounting to approximately 12% of the 2.4 million civilian federal workforce. These actions have sparked lawsuits, protests, and growing concerns about weakened oversight and public services.
There’s nothing neutral about the world’s richest man laying off tens of thousands of middle-class workers. The political backlash is bleeding into Tesla’s brand, with potential implications for demand and regulatory goodwill.
Product delays keep piling up
Investors are still waiting for clear updates on two cornerstone projects: Tesla’s long-promised affordable EV and its autonomous robotaxi fleet. Both initiatives have faced repeated delays, and with rivals moving faster on AI, battery tech, and production scale, Tesla’s early-mover edge may be starting to dull.
Tariffs tighten the squeeze
Fresh U.S. tariffs on imported auto parts may add to Tesla’s margin stress, despite the company’s localization efforts. Even Musk admitted the impact is “not trivial.”
High stakes for earnings
With Q1 numbers landing in just hours, Tesla enters a high-stakes stretch. The company must address a dense tangle of problems — slowing growth, margin compression, political fallout, and product delays — if it hopes to stabilize the narrative.
