Tesla’s European problems are not over. Some countries have already reported their March delivery numbers,, and despite the new Model Y, Tesla’s electric car sales decline is deepening in some European countries.
In the first two months of 2025, Tesla had a terrible performance in Europe.
Last week, we reported that Tesla’s sales were down 43% compared to 2024, which was already a bad year for Tesla. On top of that, electric vehicle sales were up 31%.
In March, Tesla started to deliver the updated Model Y, which many hope will help Tesla turn things around.
The early data from countries that already reported their March numbers is not looking good:
- France reports 3,159 Tesla deliveries in March – down 37% from March 2024 and down 41% in Q1
- Netherlands reports 1,536 Tesla deliveries in March – down 61% from March 2024 and down 50% in Q1
- Sweden reports 911 Tesla deliveries in March – down 64% from March 2024 and down 55% in Q1
- Austra reports 815 Tesla deliveries in March – down 34% from March 2024 and down 48% in Q1
- Portugal reports 1,209 Tesla deliveries in March – up 2% from March 2024 and down 26% in Q1
- Norway reports 2,211 Tesla deliveries in March – down 1% from March 2024 and down 25% in Q1
While Tesla started deliveries of the new Model Y and benefited from a few weeks of orders in March, it hasn’t delivered the new RWD version of the updated Model Y, which should help sales to a certain degree.
The question is how much and for how long.
In China, where all versions of the new Model Y are already available, Tesla has already had to introduce incentives to help sales.
There’s no doubt that brand damage is having an effect on Tesla in Europe, it is just difficult to gauge because of the Model Y changeover effect on top of it.
Tesla shareholders like to downplay the brand damage, but they often forget that the Model Y changeover is not all bad for Tesla’s deliveries in Q1. Tesla had a significant inventory of the old Model Y, which it heavily discounted, and the new Model Y deliveries in March benefited from a few weeks of taking orders since January.
Q2 should give us a better idea, but even then, RWD deliveries are expected to start halfway through the quarter. Q3 should give us the best idea of Tesla’s situation in Europe, but that’s quite far away.
In the meantime, some numbers still need to come from Europe, but it looks like Tesla’s sales will be down about 40% in Q1 compared to 2024, which was already a down year for Tesla in Europe.
I expect more than half of that to be due to brand issues, and the rest is due to the Model Y changeover.
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